India must worry less about China's shadow in Nepal

Indian media is full of gloomy reports about India's bilateral relations with Nepal. That India has "lost" Nepal. That the Chinese shadows are lengthening menacingly in Nepal and that China is just about to nudge past India in terms of diplomatic and strategic influence.

But calm down folks. Nothing of this sort is happening and China hasn't wrested Nepal from India yet!

In fact, the feedback this writer has got from diplomatic movers and shakers from Ground Zero here is that the Chinese dragon is not out to maul the Indian elephant in foreseeable future.

But that doesn't mean that the Chinese influence is not increasing in Nepal. It indeed is. But it is not at the expense of India. And of course India can't afford to lower its guard. In any case, there are no indications of India lowering its guard in Nepal.

A very complicated churning is going on in strategic power play in Nepal. And China has emerged as a major player in Nepal's polity.

The biggest difference between Chinese strategy in Nepal between now and a decade ago is that while earlier Beijing used to confine itself to interacting with only the King, today the Chinese are engaging with all political parties and leaders, even the bit players.

This is the new China that India has to contend with in Nepal. At the same time, China is more wary in its dealings with Nepal than ever before. That is because of increasing realisation on part of the Chinese that cosying up to Nepal is like playing with fire.

It is not for nothing that while Nepal's ruling politicians have for decades played India card with China and vice versa the Indian importance has not diminished in Kathmandu. Not even in past 100 days since when the Madhesi agitation has been going on.

Few people would know that the current agitation did not start after Nepal promulgated its new constitution on September 20 but at least good six weeks before that. The pre-September 20 phase of agitation was far bloodier with at least 45 deaths reported, post September 20 just about six or seven deaths were reported.

The ongoing Madhesi agitation has triggered major tensions in India-Nepal relations. Yet, China has not tried to capitalise on Nepal-India tensions.

On the contrary, much to the dismay of Nepal's opportunistic politicians, China has proferred a blunt advice to Nepal. The Chinese advice to Nepal is this: Respect geography and not sour your relations with India.

And make no mistake about it, China is not doing so out of love for India. It is doing so because of concerns about its own soft underbelly - Tibet.

Despite all sugar-coated diplomatic bonhomie between China and Nepal, Beijing hasn't opened up its borders with Nepal. That's because Nepal shares its border with Tibet and the Nepalese affinity, cultural as well as political, is with Tibet and Tibetans; not with China. And China knows this.

- Rajeev Sharma in Kathmandu