India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll: BJP could be heading for a total tsunami, regional satraps decimated
May 23 could well spell a tsunami — or, as some put it, a TsuNamo — that could have 'BJP' written all over electoral tallies, crushing the hopes of many regional satraps to become king (or queen) maker.
The India Today-Axis Poll has predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), originating from a wave that could be bigger and better than the one in 2014 which saw the BJP gain 282 seats.
If the exit poll results hold, the NDA would have between 339 and 368 seats on May 23, getting a second consecutive run at power for five years. The BJP itself is predicted to cross 290 seats on its own.
The exit poll predicts an almost clean sweep in most north Indian states for the BJP, much like it happened in 2014. What makes this ‘predicted victory’ look better and bigger is the speculative figures coming from Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha.
Trumping the mahagathbandhan of the Bua-Bhatija duo formed by Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav, the BJP looks set to get as many as 62-68 seats in the state. In West Bengal, the party is likely to get 19-23 seats, while in Odisha, the BJP may get 15-19 seats, if the poll results hold.
In 2014, the BJP got 71 seats in UP, two in West Bengal and just one in Odisha.
Even in states where there is a Congress government in power, it is advantage Modi, according to the polls. In Rajasthan, the BJP is likely to get about 23 of the 25 seats; in Madhya Pradesh, it is likely to get 26 out of the 29 seats and in Chhattisgarh, 10 out of the 11 seats.
In 2014, the BJP won all 25 seats in Rajasthan, 10 seats in Chhattisgarh and 27 seats in Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP-Shiv Sena combine is doing well in Maharashtra too where the alliance looks set to get 38-42 seats out of the 48 seats at stake.
However, the BJP’s kamal is still not blooming down south, with the party doing poorly in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, by heading apparently for a zero. The BJP can however gain in Karnataka where it is projected to bag 21-25 out of the 28 seats at stake.
If the results stand on May 23, it is amply clear the Modi wave has not just sustained — but grown stronger. This could well be the biggest victory for a party after the Congress win of 1984 getting 404 seats out of the 514 that existed back then.
The results also look set to reverse the trend where the party that won Assembly elections in a state also scored better in the Lok Sabha elections.
Only one factor seems to have mattered to the voters — and that factor is Modi.