ISIS may be 'defeated' but the threat is far from dead and over
The rout of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has been accompanied by an element of alarmism which is reflected in newspaper headlines screaming that “Islamic State’s foreign fighters are coming home”. Quite frankly, this is a little over the top because the guys "coming home" aren’t exactly some sort of an invasion force. They are mostly a bunch of dysfunctional, depraved and delusional guys who have just got their jihadist backsides kicked real hard out of their make-believe "Caliphate" and are now returning to their home countries virtually with their tail between their legs.
Virus
The fact that these guys are returning defeated doesn’t, of course, mean that they will just roll over and play dead. Chances are that while most of them will deny having had any role in the unspeakable crimes committed by the ISIS, very few of them are going to express any genuine remorse over the barbarity and savagery they indulged in as soldiers of the "Caliphate". The simple truth of the matter is that in the absence of an effective antidote, the virus of jihadism that has infected their minds will at best remain latent, and at worst erupt very soon.
This means that their home countries will have to keep a very close watch over them. This, at the very least, means incarcerating them not in ordinary prisons but in special prisons and that too in isolation lest they infect others with their pernicious ideology and impart terror skills like bomb making, covert communications, weapons training, sourcing weapons and procuring funds.
In India, for example, most of the wannabe terrorists inspired or influenced by ISIS have been remarkably amateurish and therefore their networks have been easily busted. More than worrying about the ISIS returnees, what countries need to worry about is the ideology and mindset that seduced their citizens to make a beeline for the "Caliphate".
Some analysts are of the view that as long as the underlying drivers that gave rise to the ISIS in Iraq and Syria are not addressed, this abomination will recur, and with even more virulence. Whatever it was that propelled tens of thousands from all parts of the world to join the ISIS is really what should be of greater concern to authorities in South Asia and other parts of the world. This is because the utopian idea, or even wet dream, of a pristine Caliphate in which true Islam would reign that ISIS sold to its adherents, will survive long after the ISIS ceases to exist as an organisation.
Brazenness
ISIS is just one manifestation— other such groups include Taliban and its offshoots, Al Qaeda and its affiliates, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Boko Haram, Al Shabaab etc — of this millenarian idea which has been around for decades, even centuries.
It remains dormant for decades and then erupts violently. Mostly the eruptions are local and easily quelled. But in this day and age of globalisation, these eruptions are now acquiring global proportions. The ISIS gained notoriety not just because of its meteoric rise, but also because of its brazenness, resources and its ability to hard-sell its version of Islam and attract people from every corner of the world.
However, as Amarnath Amarasingam and JM Berger have argued: “The loss of the caliphate — and all the traits and qualities that went along with it — will dramatically reduce the Islamic State’s recruiting appeal…” Even ISIS’ ability to run a ‘virtual Caliphate’ will be severely impaired by their loss of territory. Already, there are signs that the once formidable online propaganda network built by the ISIS is finding it difficult to operate as effectively and efficiently as it did when the ‘Caliphate’ existed on ground."
Magnet
As it generally happens in these situations, the most die-hard fanatics will continue to indulge in either terror attacks or get involved in guerrilla warfare in different hotspots under different banners which may or may not be affiliated with ISIS. All others will simply pipe down on their jazba-e-jihad because they wouldn’t like to be seen on the losing side. But while their sympathies will continue to be with the radical Islamists, they will bide their time until another potent group emerges to challenge the "Kuffar" (infidels).
Therefore, denying both physical and mind space to the radical Islamists is a sine qua non for defeating them. It will be critical to ensure that no jihadist group is allowed to either control a territory or get a safe haven anywhere in the world because this will then become a magnet for all sorts of despicable characters.
This is precisely the reason why India, even as it works to disrupt and destroy jihadist networks within the country, must at the same time put its weight behind the international community’s efforts to secure Afghanistan from falling under the baleful influence of the Islamists, whether of the Taliban or the ISIS variety because at the end of the day there is little to distinguish one from the other.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)