Future of Janata Parivar depends on Lalu and Nitish

Till March 18, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad looked uncertain about the proposed merger of the six Janata Parivar parties. Speaking to India Today then, Lalu was clearly non-committal about the dates of the merger if not the idea per se. Asked if he thought the merger of six parties would be a reality before the October Assembly polls in Bihar, Lalu's stock response was - "can't give you a deadline." It only strengthened the perception that the RJD chief was not keen on unification of the six parties, perhaps fearing he might lose his clout in a changed order.

But, it did not take many days for him to have a change of heart. A fortnight later, on April 5, Lalu was more forthright. "Only a few formalities are left. The merger is already over, though Mulayam Singhji will make a formal announcement shortly," Lalu said, adding, "Ek jhanda, ek nishan, maang raha hai Hindustan. (The country is asking for one flag and one symbol)".

The Janata Parivar parties which are in the process of merging together to take on the BJP are the RJD, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar-led JD-U, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP), former prime minister HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP).

Lalu has changed his stand shortly after Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar met him in Delhi in the last week of March and followed it up with a series of discussions with Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, JD-U president Sharad Yadav and INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala, who was then incarcerated in Tihar Jail in New Delhi. Chautala is currently on parole. These meetings helped the leaders tide over their differences and pave the way for early announcement of the merger.

Lalu, said sources in the RJD, has received a concrete guarantee from Nitish Kumar, the strongest champion of the merger, that his stature and role in the post-merger scenario would be paramount and second to none in Bihar.

Incidentally, Nitish - who stands to gather maximum benefit from the merger - is a man full of political wisdom. From someone left with perceptibly an insignificant voter base after his divorce with the BJP and subsequently with Jitan Ram Manjhi - who is threatening to run away with the Maha Dalit votes - Nitish can gain solid support of the Yadavs and the Muslims after the merger.

Nitish Kumar's biggest advantage is his susashan (good governance) tag. His track record as Bihar chief minister for nearly nine years is brighter than anyone else. Having scripted a new saga of progress in terms of road, electricity, education, health, women empowerment, law and order and overall infrastructure in the state, Kumar is head and shoulder above others in the Bihar Janata Parivar.  

"Since Nitish stands to gain maximum, he will not mind accommodating Lalu's wishes to facilitate the merger," said an RJD MP.

Nitish's decision to tie with the Lalu and RJD - who he despised for two decades - is part of his strategy to reposition himself in the face of the formidable challenge posed by BJP. His new political strategy seems to have worked so far in Bihar, preserving his relevance in the politics of the state.

On the other hand, Lalu, who along with his wife, Rabri Devi, ruled the state for 15 long years, too was driven to the periphery since losing his first assembly polls in February 2005. Lalu - notwithstanding his numerically formidable Yadav castemen - has lost five consecutive elections. His wife Rabri Devi lost from two seats in 2010 Assembly polls. Again in 2014 Lok Sabha, both Rabri Devi and Lalu's daughter Misa lost their elections, raising a question mark on Lalu's perceived invincibility in Yadav dominated seats. Lalu, too, needed to save his relevance, which made him hurriedly lap up Nitish's friendship offer.

Unlike other leaders of the Janata Parivar parties, only Lalu and Nitish have common and somewhat competing interest in one state, Bihar. And unlike others, only Lalu and Nitish will have to whittle down their personal stakes to accommodate the other. The remaining Janata Parivar leaders are the only constituent from their respective states, and therefore free from any such compulsions.

HD Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala are not required to share their respective political turfs in Karnataka and Haryana with anyone else. Similarly, while the sixth constituent Samajwadi Janata Party has limited political presence in Uttar Pradesh, it will be Mulayam Singh Yadav of Samajwadi Party, who will lord over the rest have on issues concerning Lucknow's crown.

The proposed merger will leave the Janata Parivar with the combined strength of 15 Lok Sabha MPs. Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party has five and RJD has four MPs, whereas Deve Gowda's Janata Dal Secular, Nitish Kumar's JD-U and Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal have two each in the lower house of the Parliament. Samajwadi Janata Party has no representation in the Lok Sabha

Their strength of 15 MPs will hardly change any national equations. Three other parties, AIADMK with 37 seats, Trinamool Congress with 34 and Biju Janata Dal with 20 Lok Sabha MPs still towers over other regional parties. Clearly while the impression is being conveyed that the Janata Parivar parties are coming together to give BJP a fight at the national level, the real focus would be on the regional polls, with the first Assembly poll lined up this year.

The first test of Janata Parivar will also be in Bihar Assembly elections in October 2015. Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls are scheduled in 2017, Karnataka in 2018 while Haryana will have it in 2019, after the Lok Sabha polls. Unless Lalu and Nitish succeed in putting up a united show in Bihar, the Janata Parivar unification exercise may not matter much.

Between the two, it was more difficult for Lalu Prasad to accept the merger than Nitish Kumar. Having lost his eligibility to contest elections after his conviction in a fodder scam case, Lalu had no option but to leave the chief minister's chair for Nitish Kumar, who has emerged as the most acceptable face for Bihar crown among the non-BJP candidates. The post of chief minister gives Nitish Kumar extraordinary clout, which he can easily exercise to win friends and influence people in RJD.

It was not a question of mistrusting Nitish Kumar. Call it inherent insecurity or a built-in alarm in his mind, Lalu was clearly cautious. He wanted unquestionable authority to distribute tickets in majority of the seats post after the merger. There are indications that Lalu Prasad has received a firm commitment from Nitish Kumar on that count. There also seems to be an unequivocal acceptance of the fact that Lalu's three children may contest the October 2015 assembly polls and the new party will give tickets to them," said a senior RJD leader.

The RJD chief was also under huge pressure from the Muslim lobby in his party to merge with Nitish's outfit. The Muslims are nearly 16 per cent in Bihar and Lalu can ill-afford to ignore their preference for Nitish Kumar. The idea is to effectively revive the nucleus of the Muslim-Yadav combination that Lalu's politics is based on.

 "Only a merger can counter the BJP in the Assembly elections due in winter. A merger can solidify the Muslims and the Yadavs, which together constitute over 30 per cent of the state's electorate. There were also apprehensions that neither Lalu nor Nitish could have transferred their votes to each other in case of alliance," said a senior RJD leader. Now in the run up to the polls, both Lalu and Nitish will have to re-invent themselves to face the stiff saffron challenge