What Modi government's new blueprint for Kashmir must look like
There is a silver lining amid the dark clouds looming over the Kashmir Valley. Despite the continuing violence, the historically plural character of ordinary Kashmiris hasn’t been subverted – yet.
What then should be the Indian government’s strategy in the Valley as home minister Rajnath Singh leads an all-party delegation to Srinagar on September 4?
First, it must constitute an all-faith group of Kashmiris to be its voice. There must be representation from Jammu and Ladakh. They will not be interlocutors in the mould of a tried (and failed) move in 2010, nor will they mimic the home minister’s all-party group.
Rather, as Kashmiris, they will spread a credible counter-narrative to demolish the separatists’ narrative that holds sway with many in the Valley. Their message: just as a majoritarian Hindu India is unacceptable, so is a majoritarian Muslim Kashmir.
Second, the government must deal fairly but firmly with protestors. No state can allow violence to continue unabated without losing the authority to govern.
Third, the government must delegate more powers to local authorities. Decentralisation isn’t tantamount to autonomy. It builds confidence and trust.
Fourth, and most importantly, the government must focus on development, development and development. Start by releasing the promised funds for flood relief. Make Kashmir an economic hub so that its people have a stake in India’s own growth story.
An economically prosperous Valley serves as the best antidote to Islamism by contrasting it with the misery of Kashmiris living in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Development, dialogue and decentralisation – along with zero tolerance to violence – are the keys to defeating the separatists’ narrative.
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| The next few days and weeks will test Mehbooba’s resolve. If she wilts, the countdown on her term as chief minister will have begun. |
Hardening stand
Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, known to blow hot and cold, last week hardened her stand against stone pelters. The violence, she said, is instigated by Pakistan, adding angrily: "A handful of people are deliberately keeping the Valley on the boil while 95 per cent are peace-loving and should not be punished for the fault of 5 per cent."
Calling the 5 per cent "anti-nationals", Mehbooba said: "You have to differentiate between people who want a dialogue and those who exploit young people to throw stones."
What explains Mehbooba’s sudden show of steel?
The chief minister is caught in a cleft stick. If she softens her stand against violence, the BJP could well walk out of the alliance government. In fresh Assembly elections, Mehbooba’s PDP will be trounced.
The BJP has little to lose by taking a hard line. In a mid-term election, after a spell of governor’s rule, it will win Jammu and Ladakh. As a corollary benefit, it will boost its electoral stock across the country. There will be a ripple effect in key Assembly elections in 2017, as well as in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.
I have consistently criticised the PDP-BJP alliance on these pages over the past 18 months. It is not merely a marriage of convenience, but one of political opportunism.
A divorce, I argued here on January 12, 2016, would actually help the Narendra Modi government electorally in the rest of the country. A good divorce is better than a bad marriage.
But, even if the BJP is now mentally prepared to walk out of the government rather than compromise on its tough new policy on Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, both of which resonate strongly in the Kashmir Valley, Mehbooba won’t let go of power easily.
When she asked Kashmiris last week to give her "one more chance" and pleaded with the Hurriyat’s Syed Ali Shah Geelani to "treat me like your daughter", she betrayed her dilemma. If she toed partner BJP’s hard line, she would further erode her voter base. If she went soft on the instigators, the BJP could cut her adrift. That would mean political oblivion for the PDP for the next six years.
The BJP, meanwhile, is caught in a dilemma of its own. It has belatedly realised that being in power in J&K is akin to drinking from a poisoned chalice. Whatever it does, the BJP will be reviled in the Valley.
If it softens its stand on the violence, it will lose votes in Jammu and go back to being a marginal player in J&K. If it stays tough, the alliance government will anyway eventually collapse under the weight of its own ideological contradictions.
A new Kashmir policy
Before crafting a new blueprint for Kashmir, it’s important to remember the few positives that still pervade the Valley.
Salafi and Wahhabi Islam remain alien to Kashmiri Muslims. Had they taken root, Kashmiri boys would not be throwing stones at jawans, but instead blowing themselves up near Army bunkers as suicide bombers.
The Islamic State (ISIS) and Taliban brand of radical Islam has not seeped into the Valley despite Islamabad’s concerted and venal efforts.
The reason is Kashmir’s long history of a plural Sufi culture. Muslims with surnames like Shah and Bhat abound in the Valley. They point to Kashmir’s Dogra past. It is a centuries-old heritage and will reject radical Islam.
As I wrote in The Times of India on October 7, 2011:
"Kashmir is historically a plural land: Islam became its majority religion only in the thirteenth century. Sufi Islam and the gentle rishi tradition of the Valley’s Hindus were complementary. Pandits and Muslims prayed at the same shrines. Later rulers were a mixed brew: Sikhs, Britons and Dogras. The key moment in the region’s history came when the British sold Kashmir, which it had annexed from the Sikhs in 1846 after the first Anglo-Sikh war, for Rs 75 lakh to Gulab Singh, the Dogra Raja of Jammu and the great-grandfather of Maharaja Hari Singh, who a century later would sign the instrument of accession of J&K to India.
"By the early-1900s, the Dogra rulers had become unpopular across the region. J&K at the time had a population of 3.2 million – 2.5 million Muslims and 0.7 million Hindus. Today, the state’s population is around 11 million, with Muslims comprising 7.50 million (67 per cent) and Hindus 3.40 million (31 per cent) of the total – a demography that has remained relatively unchanged for over 100 years except for the near-elimination of Hindus from the Valley.”
Talk – but to whom?
Mehbooba said last week: "Talks can be held only with those who want to talk. I feel those who are right now provoking youths to attack army camps and police stations are not interested in talks. They want bloodshed. For them, it is business, thriving on the trade of getting children killed, wounded. But those who want to talk, irrespective of believing in another ideology, should be approached with all seriousness."
Talking to Hurriyat separatists, however, will prove fruitless. They have no interest in elections or in peace. Under instructions from Pakistan, their mission is to keep the Valley on the boil, and India on the back foot.
Pakistan and its agents in the Valley are doing everything they can to replace the Valley’s historic Sufi culture with an intolerant Salafi theocracy.
The next few days and weeks will test Mehbooba’s resolve. If she wilts, the countdown on her term as chief minister will have begun.