Will BJP become the TMC of Kerala in 2016?

For many decades, the most difficult job in politics has been to be a BJP leader or supporter in Kerala. Despite having one of the most organised and active RSS networks, the party in Kerala has been a cipher in electoral politics. Always scoring a duck in election after election.

However, winds of change are clearly blowing in Kerala. The recent performance of O Rajagopal in the Aruvikkara by-poll is a wakeup call to the political observers. O Rajagopal, or Rajettan as he is fondly called, has untiringly fought election after election despite losing all of them. In 2014, he came close to being Kerala BJP's first Lok Sabha MP and lost in a close election to Shashi Tharoor of Congress, despite getting an impressive 32.32 per cent of the votes cast.

In Aruvikkara, which is another hamlet not different from the others that dot the beautiful Kerala countryside, evidence of the changes in Kerala's political landscape are emerging. The results did put BJP in third position, behind the winning Congress candidate and second place CPI(M). But O Rajagopal has gained 34,145 votes against the party's 2011 (legislative assembly election) tally of 7,694 votes. A look at the vote share of various parties show that only the BJP has increased its vote share: from 6.6 per cent to 23.96 per cent.

The polled votes of Congress and CPI(M) remain almost at the same level when compared to the votes these two parties had got in 2011. But vote share fell drastically. In 2011, the Congress bagged 56,797 votes which was 48.78 per cent of the total polled votes. In 2015, the same is 56,448 and 39.61per cent. The CPI(M) had 46,123 votes and 39.61 per cent in 2011. Now, it is 46,320, which is only 32.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the total polled votes increased by 26,000. (BJP increased its votes by 26,451.)

Out of 154 booths, BJP came first in 26 booths. (Vellanad - 7, Aruvikkara - 5, Poovachal - 4, Kuttichal - 4, Aryanad - 3, Uzhamalakkal - 2, Tolikkod - 1).These areas are considered to have a Hindu majority. And out of 26 booths, 17 are in CPI(M) strongholds. In the last elections, the BJP was in the third position in all 26.

The CPI(M)'s expectations to come first in four panchayats - Uzhamalakkal, Aryanad, Vithura and Vellanad - were foiled by BJP's surge. While areas which have a majority of Nadar Christians and Muslims, remained safe with Congress. Tholikode Panchayat, for example, gave Congress a whopping lead of 2,000 votes. And this made the eventual Congress win possible.

The BJP surge and performance was clearly at the cost of CPI(M). That is the big message arising from this election. The contours of a potential political earthquake in 2016 is forming. That left with nothing to choose between the Left and the Congress economics, Keralites would pick Congress and that the BJP has the potential to replace the CPM as the political opposition to the Congress and therefore its challenger in the 2016 Elections.

So, while the Aruvikkara results may seem like just another by-poll outcome, won as expected by the ruling party, it has started the process of what will be Kerala's most interesting elections in 2016.