10 ways Lalu Yadav may suffer from SC order on fodder scam
On May 8, 2017, the Supreme Court ruled that Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav will stand for separate trial in all four fodder scam cases, as it set aside the Jharkhand High Court order which had dropped conspiracy charges against him.
The Jharkhand High Court had on November 14, 2014, given relief to the RJD chief by dropping charges of criminal conspiracy, criminal breach of trust and prevention of corruption against him. The court quashed the cases on the grounds that a person convicted in one case could not be tried in similar cases based on same witnesses and evidence.
The bench of the apex court has now directed the trial court to complete the proceedings within nine months. This means an increase in legal troubles for Lalu.
He was sentenced to five years’ imprisonment in another case of fodder scam by a special CBI court. As a result, Lalu was disqualified from membership of Parliament and also rendered ineligible for contesting elections for 11 years. Right now, he's on bail.
The fodder scam relates to fraudulent withdrawal of around Rs 1,000 crore by the animal husbandry department from various districts when Lalu was CM of undivided Bihar from 1990 to 1997.
The apex court's decision comes at a time when opposition leader Sushil Kumar Modi and the BJP are going hammer and tongs against the RJD chief and his two sons by levelling several allegations of corruption against them. The first family of RJD has not been able to mount an effective reply.
Lalu also finds himself in another row after a purported phone conversation between him and murder accused and former RJD MP Mohammad Shahabuddin came into public domain.
What impact is this going to have on Lalu, his party, his family and the ruling JD (U)-RJD alliance in Bihar?
1) Virtual end of Lalu's political career
Lalu was already sentenced to five-year rigorous imprisonment and barred from contesting elections for 11 years. Now he will stand separate trial for each of the four fodder scam cases. Conviction in any of these cases for more than two years will further add to his exile of 11 years from contesting elections, which ends in 2024. This essentially means that chances of the 68-year-old RJD leader contesting elections will further diminish.
2) May not be able to work for party
Despite being convicted, Lalu was getting people's vote for the RJD and keeping the party together. So far, the RJD chief was relatively free to hold party meetings and meet supporters. But the CBI court has to complete the trials within nine months, which means he will get very little time after dealing with legal proceedings. The first casualty could well be the big rally he has planned at Patna's Gandhi Maidan in August. Even if the party goes for it, without Lalu, it will be difficult to hold such a rally.
3) Unfriendly government will add to his worry
If there is a conviction in the CBI court, Lalu may have to be behind bars in Jharkhand jail. In 2013, when he was convicted in another fodder scam case, there was a "friendly" JMM government in the state as well as the UPA at the Centre. The RJD was supporting both. Now, the BJP is in power in Jharkhand and at the Centre. Which means access to Lalu for his supporters in jail will be greatly restricted.
4) Lack of second-tier leaders may ruin RJD
Like all single man parties, the RJD too is deprived of powerful second-rung leaders. Though two of Lalu's sons - Tejashwi and Tej Pratap - are ministers in the state cabinet, they are political newbies. During the RJD’s Rajgir conclave in May, Lalu gave the hint that Tejashwi could take over the mantle from him. But political observers feel that Tejashwi doesn’t have the stature to match his father. However, the situation is not as bad as it was during 2013, when Lalu went to jail.
5) No one to control errant leaders
In the absence of Lalu, it will be very hard to control RJD ministers, leaders, legislators and even workers. Whenever RJD leaders like Raghuvansh Prasad Singh or Taslimuddin openly criticise CM Nitish Kumar's government, only Lalu can crack the whip. It would be very difficult for Lalu's wife Rabri Devi or her two sons to contain senior leaders with a big mouth, rebellious ministers, MLAs and errant party workers.
6) May lead to war of succession
Lalu and Rabri have two sons and seven daughters. Now, two of his sons are ministers and the eldest daughter is a Rajya Sabha MP. It's not known if the other six children have political ambitions. But in the absence of a clear succession plan, these siblings may end up squabbling. In the absence of the binding force, i.e. Lalu, the situation may go out of control. If Lalu goes to jail, it may work to unite the entire family in crisis, contrary to popular belief.
7) RJD will be more dependent on Nitish
If charismatic Lalu goes to jail, then the ability of the RJD to get votes will be reduced substantially. Allegations of corruption even against Lalu's son and wife will make the first family of the RJD more vulnerable, especially with a hostile government at the Centre and the BJP at its aggressive best. In such a situation, it will look towards Nitish for support and protection.
8) Win-win situation for JD (U)
With Lalu in jail, the RJD will not be in a position to exert pressure on the state government. This would leave the Bihar CM free to run the administration. Hostility between the JD (U) and RJD is an open secret and has manifested in different forms in the last 18 months of the alliance. A weakened Lalu suits Nitish. This means more RJD ministers and MLAs will turn to Nitish in the absence of Lalu. This would translate into a win-win situation for Nitish, who would lead the Janata Dal-United.
9) JD (U) may get rid of RJD
So, far neither CM Nitish nor his party is willing to defend the biggest alliance partner, Lalu. With every passing day, the pressure is growing on the government to explain the oddities in the partnership. Any further allegation on the RJD's first family may make the party a liability for Nitish, who has built his image as sushasan babu. As the deadline for the next Lok Sabha election draws nearer, Nitish may get rid of the RJD and go for a fresh election, to chase his PM ambitions.
10) Congress too may desert RJD
When Sonia Gandhi was under opposition fire over the issue of her foreign origins, it was Lalu who stood behind her and said: "Sonia Gandhi is the bahu (daughter-in-law) of India, she is no more a foreigner". But that relationship strained when Rahul Gandhi tore the ordinance which was largely believed to have been tailor-made to protect Lalu. However, under compulsion, they again joined hands in Bihar. If the RJD's first family gets embroiled further in corruption cases, the Congress may leave it to protect itself.