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What BJP plans to achieve by turning screws on Lalu Prasad Yadav

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Rahul Shrivastava
Rahul ShrivastavaJul 07, 2017 | 19:26

What BJP plans to achieve by turning screws on Lalu Prasad Yadav

The CBI raids on Lalu Prasad Yadav, his family members and associates have stirred the political pot in Bihar.

The earlier tax raids against Lalu's daughter and others had put the RJD chief’s ally, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, in an uncomfortable position. Kumar had responded with tactical moves to show visible distancing of his JD(U) party from its mahagathbandhan ally RJD, with whom he had trounced the BJP in the last Assembly polls.

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Today, after the raids, Lalu chose bluster and counter-offensive. He dubbed the CBI raids on his family residences as a political conspiracy by the BJP, claiming the investigating agency had not a shred of evidence against him.

"This is a conspiracy against me and my family. Modi is moving towards dictatorship. I am not scared,” he said.

The raids coincidentally came on a day when Lalu was in Ranchi for hearing in a CBI court in a fodder-scam related case.

While the opposition called this bluster, Lalu has less to worry about his electoral strength in Bihar. His conviction in 2013 in the fodder scam cases barred him from contesting polls for the next six years but consolidated the Yadav and minority votes for his party.

He set aside past differences and swallowed his pride to project Kumar as the CM. Such was the consolidation in his favour that he won more seats than the JD(U) and managed to wrest the deputy CM’s post for his son and secure the future of the gen next in his family.

With the BJP keeping its upper caste votebank in good humour by maintaining their prominence and placement in the Cabinet, Lalu does not need to worry about a swing in favour of BJP by Dalit voters.

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But this is where his comfort zone ends. Yet another case where the CBI says the evidence is clinching could spell trouble.

A future conviction will put him, the tallest backward leader in Bihar, out of electoral contention. One case names his son as co-accused. This means, if convicted, Tejaswi Prasad too may not be able to contest polls for six years.

This will be a setback for not just Lalu but also RJD - Bihar's most influential party. Criminal cases and tenures in jail over a long stretch have been key factors in building disarray among the cadres of several parties like the SP and BSP.

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The choices before Nitish Kumar are limited. Photo: India Today

But that's in the future. Lalu’s immediate worry is how to keep his alliance with Kumar and the mahagathbandhan alive. A weakened or splintered alliance in 2019 will bring back the 2014 Lok Sabha poll debacle, when the RJD won just 4 seats.

Today, when the CBI raided Lalu and his kin, the Congress came out in support. But the JD(U) remained silent. Not one word came in defence of him all day. A top JD(U) leader in Delhi said the “gag order” has come from the top in Patna.

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The JD(U) can't defend Lalu even if it wants to. The BJP knows this. Now the choices before Kumar are limited.

Either he can continue with his slow distancing policy or grin and bear the BJP’s criticism for continuing his alliance with the RJD.

Top JD(U) sources say Kumar can't dump Lalu and embrace the BJP at this juncture after taking a strong anti-Modi position before the last Lok Sabha polls.

A senior leader said: “JD(U) will have to get more focused. Deliver on the promises made in the last polls and hope that this too shall pass.”

After the income tax raids on Lalu’s daughter, Kumar - Bihar's sushasan babu or good governance man with a squeaky clean image - had given Lalu uncomfortable moments.

He skipped a lunch hosted by Congress president Sonia Gandhi in Delhi to discuss the name of the opposition's presidential candidate.

Next day, he added to worries by sitting on the high table with PM Modi and the Mauritius PM. As tensions grew, the Congress took swipes at him. Senior party leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said: “JD(U) has started the process of opposition candidate for president Meira Kumar’s defeat.”

Kumar struck back, and within days announced support to BJP’s presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind. That shook the mahagathbandhan

Lalu was quick to point out that Kumar had made a "historical mistake", stirring up a hornet's nest.

But Kumar shook the boat again by saying the “Congress should present an alternative agenda against the Narendra Modi government and merely harping on opposition unity won't help the country.”

For the BJP, this is certainly not a game-changer. But it helps the party add ammunition not merely against RJD - its target is Kumar and the mahagathbandhan.

Lalu may be the visible target but the BJP is counting on the body blows the JD(U) too may be taking.

A break in the alliance and hopes of the JD(U) inching back to the NDA camp it had left a few years ago is the not-so-hidden agenda.

It's not just electoral strategy too. The BJP had fought the Bihar Assembly polls on Modi’s face and lost - thus it was a loss of face too and haunts the party still.  

Last updated: July 09, 2017 | 23:06
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