Fodder scam: Conviction for Lalu Yadav could not have come at a worse time
RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s recent conviction in fodder scam case was not unexpected. Shortly after 3.30pm on December 23, when CBI court judge Shivpal Singh acquitted six of the 22 accused, including former Bihar chief minister and Congress veteran Jagannath Mishra — all co-accused of Lalu Prasad in the fodder scam case pertaining to fraudulent withdrawal of more than Rs 89 lakh from Deoghar Treasury between 1991 and 1994 — it did raise some hopes in the RJD camp.
It was short-lived though. Twenty minutes later, the judge declared what seemed inevitable, pronouncing Lalu Prasad and 15 others guilty and bundled them off to prison. The quantum of the sentence will be announced on January 3.
This is Lalu Prasad’s second conviction and eighth visit to jail in the fodder scam cases. Prior to the current conviction, the last time Lalu was sent behind bars in fodder scam cases was in September 2013. His first conviction then had also cost him his Lok Sabha seat, the judgment also debarred him from contesting polls. He was out on bail three months later in December 2013.
The circumstances, however, were different in 2013. There was a friendly UPA government at the Centre as well as in Jharkhand, which facilitated almost unfettered access to Lalu even in jail. This time, there are hostile governments at both places and the first evidence of it was visible on December 24 when former Union minister and senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh was not allowed to see his party chief in Ranchi prison.
Unlike in 2013 when Rabri Devi helmed RJD in the absence of her husband, this time the responsibility will be on Lalu’s sons. Though Tejashwi, Lalu’s younger son and heir apparent, has made a name for himself inside the Assembly and also during his stint as Bihar’s deputy chief minister, running the party will be easier said than done. Without Lalu at the centre stage, RJD can be more vulnerable to split. Being Lalu’s chosen successor in the party, Tejashwi commands authority, but he still has a long way to go before he develops a one-on-one relationship with MLAs and important party workers.
A stint in jail in the past has always boosted Lalu Prasad’s career. He won his first Lok Sabha election in 1977 after spending time in jail during Emergency. Lalu has also been to jail six times between July 1997 and December 2001 in fodder scam cases. Though he had to step down as Bihar chief minister after he had to surrender in July 1997, Lalu still ruled Bihar by letting his wife Rabri Devi succeed him. Then, he utilised his stints in judicial custody as opportunities for consolidating his vote-bank. He returned home from prison riding an elephant in 1997. In 2001, he took a convoy of 1,000 vehicles to Ranchi to surrender in a CBI court. The longer his stay behind bars, the bigger the electoral dividends he saw.
December 2017, however, is a different era. Lalu knows a short duration in jail will only boost his sympathy votes. But, unlike before, Lalu’s longer physical absences in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls can dent his party's chances.
Lalu is aware that the RJD’s core vote-base of Muslims and Yadavs can be under strain if his judicial custody prolongs. The JD(U) is working overtime to woo the Muslims in Lalu’s absence. But it will be foolish to write Lalu off just yet. The RJD boss has proved his obituary-writers wrong time and again. Having redefined politics in Bihar, as he turned the social pecking order upside down, Lalu still commands a robust following and an ability to bounce back.
Even the most faithful RJD leaders wonder privately about the party’s prospects without Lalu at the helm. “No one knows when he will come out and also if his health will permit him to do vigorous politicking,” a senior RJD leader told me.
The year 2017 is not 1997 when Lalu was considered electorally invincible and whatever he said was accepted. Indeed his conviction could not have come at a worse time. He is out of the Union government since 2009 and out of power in Patna since July 2017 when Nitish dumped him. While his vote-bank is intact, his enemies, JD(U) and BJP, too are united. Just when Lalu needed to stay out and consolidate his vote, the conviction has rendered him away from heartland politics.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)