Why southern states are crucial for 2019 Lok Sabha elections
The BJP's shocking defeat in by-elections to two parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh and one in Bihar seems to have thrown the 2019 Lok Sabha contest wide open. Although a year is still to go for the Lok Sabha polls, the impact of the by-poll results has spurred political brainstorming in the southern states.
The next six months will be very crucial. How successful are the two major parties - the BJP and the Congress - in stitching up pre-poll alliance with regional parties and the understanding that will emerge for post-poll cooperation, will decide the fate and face of 2019 elections.
The five southern states - Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala - and one union territory of Puducherry together sends 130 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Despite the Modi wave in 2014, the BJP won just 20 seats from the region, just one seat more than its main rival Congress party.
So, it is important to figure out, how different will the picture be in 2019 as far as the southern states are concerned. Due to rapidly changing political mood in the south, both the Congress and the BJP will have to work hard to forge alliances with regional parties, whose importance, over the years, have increased.
National politics subsequently got marginalised because of the regional aspirations of the major political parties. In the old "coalition-dharma" there was an unwritten agreement that the regional parties would focus only on the state Assembly elections and the remaining political space will be left for the national parties. But, in the last few elections, there has been reversal in the trend.
Ever since 1996, when non-Congress and non-BJP governments came into existence at the Centre, the regional parties have realised their strength. But that experiment pushed the country towards political instability. Within two years, India saw three prime ministers and eventually the country had to go for another general election. However, this did not diminish national parties’ regional aspirations.
Of the 20 seats that the BJP won in 2014, 17 of them were from Karnataka alone. The urban areas of the state, especially Bangalore and Mysore, and coastal areas had supported the BJP.
This was possible even when the state had a Congress government under Siddaramaiah since May 2013. The chief minister had to face the Modi wave, and therefore, he could manage to bring only nine seats to his party’s account. However, in the run-up to the Assembly election in the state, Siddaramaiah seems to have an upper hand over his BJP rival BS Yeddyurappa. That's because the BJP has kept its election campaign completely focussed on Narendra Modi’s charisma. Siddaramaiah, on the other hand, despite facing anti-incumbency is aggressively pursuing his social engineering by trying to consolidate Ahinda (Kannada acronym for dalits, backward classes and minorities) vote bank and invoking "Kannada pride" - the state’s own national anthem and flag.
To be held next month, the Karnataka elections will be keenly watched as it will set the stage for 2019 Lok Sabha polls for both the parties - the BJP and the Congress. At this stage, the fate of the regional parties in the state is still unclear. While former prime minister HD Deve Gowda's Janata Dal(S) has lost much of its steam and sheen, Siddaramaiah though considered a tall Congress leader in Karnataka, his image remains restricted to that of a regional satrap.
In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had won two seats in Andhra Pradesh and one in Telangana. The BJP may have won 20 seats on its own in the south, but it had benefited allies on 73 seats.
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP's then ally, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), had won 16 seats and MPs and MLAs of both the parties shared power in both the governments. But now there is a crack in this friendship. Raising the issue of "Andhra pride", the TDP has come out of the BJP-led NDA.
TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu has accused the central government of not fulfilling its promise of granting special status to Andhra Pradesh. Clearly, competitive politics forced the TDP to quit the NDA since opposition leader Jaganmohan Reddy has been continuously accusing Naidu for not protecting the interests of the state.
In Andhra Pradesh, political observers believe, the BJP is staring at a loss because the wind seems to be blowing in Naidu's direction. Until the next year's elections, the demand for special category status for Andhra Pradesh will remain a burning issue with the state facing both Lok Sabha and the assembly elections together.
Post-elections, the only hope for the NDA is Naidu, who has for long has adopted an anti-Congress stand. In the meantime, the BJP's attempt to befriend Jaganmohan Reddy has failed.
In Telangana, TRS supremo Chandrasekhar Rao is engaged in working out the possibility of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front. Although he is more close to the BJP than the Congress, he feels the pulse of the people is against the Centre and that is why he will have to adopt a different kind of political posture.
In 2014, the TRS won 11 Lok Sabha seats.
In Tamil Nadu, there is a political vacuum after J Jayalalitha's (AIADMK) death, and M Karunanidhi (DMK) not keeping well. The BJP is trying hard to cobble up an alliance with various groups, including Rajinikanth's, but has not succeeded so far.
BJP’s vote percentage in Kerala has increased, but it is still far away from securing seats. In Puducherry, the Congress is in power.
Suffice it to say, both the national parties will have to either convince regional parties for a pre-poll alliance or will have to open their doors for post-poll unions to strengthen their prospects for the next year’s general elections.