#ModiInBangladesh proved he's the man
Prime Minister Modi’s Bangladesh visit has been an unqualified success. Modi showed his capacity for decisive leadership in reversing the position that the BJP took on the long pending Land Boundary Agreement while in opposition and obtaining parliamentary approval for it while in power. That this approval was unanimous strengthened Modi’s political hands before his Dhaka visit, as it signalled to Bangladesh the strong political consensus in India that, despite political ups and downs in the relationship and the unresolved issue of illegal migration and its demographic consequences in our border states, in particular – an issue of prominence during Vajpayee’s term – it is the larger picture of the relationship that is now driving BJP’s policy towards its neighbour.
Groundwork
This includes Modi’s vision of SAARC, his government's openness to sub-regional cooperation, a more vigorous Act East policy and stronger focus on developing our Northeast. For Bangladesh, this means new opportunities for beneficial collaboration with India. More importantly, the broader framework in which India now wants to insert its Bangladesh policy signifies durability of direction driven by geopolitics, which should assure Bangladesh that it can move forward with India with less political inhibition on the critical transit and connectivity issues.
The ground for Modi’s visit was further smoothened by the settlement of the maritime boundary last year through arbitration under the provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This Indian willingness to settle sensitive maritime disputes with a neighbour contrasts with the manner China is handling its maritime disputes with its smaller neighbours and its unwillingness to subject its dispute with the Philippines to international jurisdiction, for instance. The Land Boundary Agreement follows a decisive improvement in the political atmosphere between India and Bangladesh in the six years that Sheikh Hasina has been in power.
Her actions in suppressing anti-India insurgency from Bangladeshi soil represented key progress. Her internal combat against radical religious forces – almost unique in terms of trends in the larger Islamic world – is conducive to India’s interest in seeing such forces curbed in our region, especially in the east which is the natural area of India’s economic and cultural expansion (the two fields of emphasis in Modi’s foreign policy) in Asia, unlike the situation on our west where Pakistan’s unremitting hostility based on its Islamic identity will remain an insurmountable barrier.
That Bangladesh, even as an Islamic country, remains wedded to its Bengali cultural roots is important for India. Sheikh Hasina’s brave effort to weed out extremism and promote a moderate and accommodative Islamic ethos in the country removes a distorting element in broader regional cooperation encompassing India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Southeast Asian countries.
Extremism
The momentous Land Boundary Agreement was the centre-piece of Modi’s visit. Hopefully, illegal activities across the border such as human trafficking, circulation of counterfeit notes, smuggling etc would now be better controlled, though the forces behind such activity are not defeated by settled borders. Official briefings had already clarified that the Teesta agreement would not be concluded during Modi’s visit. Mamata Banerjee's presence undoubtedly boosted Modi’s image in the eyes of Bangladeshis for political astuteness in managing domestic political rivalry to serve a larger national interest.
The Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala bus service and the Dhaka-Guwahati-Shillong one launched in the presence of Modi, Sheikh Hasina and Mamata Banerjee is important for establishing much needed connectivity. The decision on a special economic zone in Bangladesh to anchor Indian investments, expanded cooperation in the power sector and coastal shipping to boost bilateral trade and so on will reinforce bilateral ties. Altogether 26 agreements/MOUs were signed during the visit, including the $2 billion Line of Credit extended by India for infrastructure and other development activities in Bangladesh.
Modi rightly underlined in his joint press conference with Sheikh Hasina that the agreements signed will open new doors to India’s Northeast and enable the two countries to integrate South Asia with the dynamic East.
He appreciated Bangladesh’s decision to allow the transport of power equipment and foodgrains to the Northeast. He promised to address the question of the trade deficit and spoke of raising the power supply from India from the present 500 MW to 1,100 MW in two years. Very importantly, he mentioned connectivity by road, rivers, sea, transmission lines, petroleum pipelines and digital links in the broader framework of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal.
Uncertainty
He spoke of a fair solution on the Teesta and Feni rivers. His reference to space cooperation was significant in the context of Chinese overtures to Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina, in a dramatic change from the past Bangladeshi discourse acknowledged that greater connectivity was vital for the development of both countries and the region.
Those for a more active Indian role to knit the neighbourhood with it economically would approve Modi’s approach to Bangladesh and so would those concerned about China looming larger still in our neighbourhood.
Modi’s meetings with Khaleda Zia and Rowshan Ershad were intended to convey India’s non-partisan approach. Hopefully, political currents in Bangladesh that are traditionally India-baiting, subscribe to extremist ideologies and are manipulated by Pakistan can be contained by all-round improvement of bilateral ties.
However, given Bangladesh’s fragile internal political situation and some uncertainty about the future, western criticism of Sheikh Hasina’s policies towards the opposition and other external actors competing with India, we will have to remain watchful and hope for the best.