Why Modi government will face its worst Parliament session

The Congress party is sharpening its political armour to take on the Narendra Modi-led government in the monsoon session of Parliament, promising to put the “suit-boot ki sarkar” into a tight corner.

Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad has baldly stated the “three-for-three” formula: In return for the scalps of three BJP leaders, namely external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje and MP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan (allegedly embroiled in the Vyapam scam at home), the Congress party will allow the passing of the BJP’s beloved land acquisition bill, the GST bill and the real estate bill. Oh okay, lets throw in the whistle-blower protection bill as well, just to warm up the game.

Strategy

Still, it's not as if the BJP is going to wither away in the face of the expected Opposition onslaught. The Arun Jaitley-Amit Shah duo have been girding their loins, albeit metaphorically, and putting their heads together to come up with a first-rate bull-in-China-shop plan (with due apologies to China) that will go head to head with the Opposition’s determination not to let the Rajya Sabha function. It seems as if the finance minister-BJP president doublet have decided the first line of defence will be a stout defence of both Sushma Swaraj and Vasundhara Raje, who may have been politically foolish for having bailed out Lalit Modi but have not been financially or morally corrupt in their association with him. Still, if the brazening out doesn’t work, the BJP leadership is preparing a counter-attack which, it hopes, will stop the Congress dead in its tracks.

“If they want to target our chief ministers, which should have no place in a parliamentary session, we will give them some other chief ministers to discuss,” said a senior BJP leader on condition of anomymity. On the anvil is the decision to bring forward the disproportionate assets case against Himachal Pradesh chief minister Virbhadra Singh to its logical conclusion; and to act against former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh for allegedly stashing black monies abroad. If the Opposition targeting of Vasundhara Raje – most BJP leaders believe that Chouhan must allow a fair inquiry into Vyapam – gets vicious, the so-called scandals against Virbhadra Singh and Amarinder Singh could emerge.

In mid-June, the CBI had registered a preliminary inquiry against Virbhadra Singh and his wife, son and daughter on an “unexplained income of Rs 6.1 crore” between 2009-11 when he was Union steel minister. According to the CBI, the Himachal CM had invested his “ill-gotten income” through an LIC agent called Anand Chauhan, who bought LIC policies in the names of various family members of Virbhadra Singh and passed off the income as agricultural income.

Inquiry

As for Amarinder Singh, who defeated Arun Jaitley in Amritsar in last year’s election, it was rumoured last year his name figured in the list of 326 Indians who had illegally kept money abroad. Amarinder Singh had defended his innocence, as had his wife Preneet Kaur, and the matter seemed to have died down. Clearly, the government is on the backfoot at the moment. The Ufa handshake between PMs Modi and Nawaz Sharif is under stress, with firing continuing on the border and foreign secretary S Jaishankar talking tough. Meanwhile, Modi’s J&K package seems inordinately delayed, although it seems to have been finalised. Perhaps the BJP and PDP are waiting for the right moment. It would help both sides to get Kashmiris back on their side, what with the stone-pelting that seems to have taken over parts of Srinagar.

Militancy

And there are worrying signs, especially from south Kashmir, speaking of a home-grown militancy returning to the Valley. These new militants aren’t afraid of showing their faces, posing with Kalashnikovs on Facebook – in the most famous photograph that has rocked the intelligence establishment, a baby-faced boy called Burhan, who is ostensibly the head of the Hizbul Mujahideen in J&K, is surrounded by child-like teenagers trying to be strongmen. All of them have their forearms slung around their weapons.

The PDP must reckon with the RSS trying to expand their sphere of influence across the state. They have several hundred groups in Jammu and a few score in Ladakh, but none in the Muslim-majority Valley yet – it seems that the RSS is in talks with people to form a few circles. They are taking heart from the fact that at least 50-60,000 people voted for the BJP candidates who lost in last year’s elections – all the BJP candidates save for one, Moti Koul, lost their deposits, but the fact that a few thousand Muslims voted for them. Perhaps the only silver lining in these last few tough weeks is the release of the Salman Khan starrer Bajrangi Bhaijaan, whose pro-peace and brotherhood storyline around India and Pakistan must have an impact on the toughest hearts. Once again, Bollywood is redeeming itself. 

At Rs 100 crore and counting, fact is, it's impossible to ignore the voices of the people. Even when he’s cornered in the monsoon session of Parliament the next few weeks, PM Modi would do well to listen to them.