With BJP voter losing faith in Modi, cabinet reshuffle is in order
This winter session of Parliament began loftily enough with an all-party discussion on the Constitution and BR Ambedkar, but ended with next to nothing accomplished. In between, it was a shameful and unmitigated chaos. But this was the case for large tracts of the UPA’s regime too, when this government was in Opposition, and thought nothing of wasting taxpayer’s time and money in a similar fashion.
Ergo, Indian democracy may be the largest in the world, electorally speaking, but has reached an impasse. It is in deep crisis. It cannot pass its laws because of the politics of attrition. The decimated Congress has been spoiling for a fight, right from the start in May 2014. It began by heckling Prime Minister Narendra Modi, viewed as a usurper and poseur by it, and proceeded to prevent Parliament from functioning.
Loggerheads
The ruling party, however, did not get aggressive. Old Delhi hands in the NDA government, like the powerful finance minister Arun Jaitley, felt a softer touch would be appreciated. But it didn’t work. Instead, this gentle handling emboldened the badly-mauled Congress, and gave it a second wind.
After sulking for the first few months, the Congress decided to up the ante and go on the attack. It was promptly joined by the communists and some regional parties — beginning soon after the AAP landslide in Delhi. And this process has gathered momentum after the equally spectacular JD(U), RJD and Congress win in Bihar.
A combined opposition, a wider still mahagathbandhan than the one in Bihar, it is thought, can knock out Modi and the BJP/NDA in the remaining Assembly elections, and in the General Elections, come 2019. But it's ironic, the Congress has recently become enmeshed in a crisis of its own. It is a criminal case involving the president and vice-president of the party directly. And try to shake it off as it has, the case is going to trial. It is bound to make adverse headlines for them, at least all through 2016.
To glean political dividend from this fresh trouble, the Congress is trying that this criminal case, filed by BJP member Subramanian Swamy, represents its “politics of vendetta”, in an effort to unify more elements of the Opposition. And all this as this government nears two years in power. Modi, however, has over three years to form viable new alliances of his own, break opposition unity, and consolidate the position of the NDA.
Alliances
To do so in these confrontational times, he must explore options to target all corrupt leadership in various opposition parties. The likely candidates for such strong-arm tactics stretch temptingly across the political landscape. But prima facie direct involvement of political heavyweights must be established for prosecution.
Mamata Banerjee, for example, is not only said to be embroiled in the Saradha scam, but has demonstrated a propensity to side with the Opposition, given the sizeable Muslim population in West Bengal. She might, of course, be persuaded to switch sides, but only after her own forthcoming Assembly elections are behind her.
The BJD in Odisha has a clean reputation and might become a possible ally for the NDA once again. It is currently running a most welcome campaign to reform the Rajya Sabha, so that its pernicious veto powers are curtailed. But again, this will need a constitutional amendment; not easy to come by.
Another possibility is an NDA alliance with either the SP or the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, both for the coming Assembly elections and onwards. J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu may be quite amenable to ally with as well. In short, the proposed enlarged mahagathbandhan may not really have that much of a free run across the country.
Politics apart, in terms of governance also, a mid-term course correction is mandatory if the BJP is going to give itself a chance in 2019. Its disappointing version of “Congress plus cow” rule, as the spurned Arun Shourie dubbed it, has been most underwhelming.
This, particularly for the people who voted for Modi, rather than the BJP, on the strength of his Gujarat track record and his soaring rhetoric on the election trail. The "Modi magic" worked thereafter for the Assembly elections in J&K, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand too, but with diminishing returns.
The government is now on spec to deliver, and the cabinet is perceived to be wanting. There has been little, even by way of administrative reform. In addition, we see a chaotic and negative handling of its image. And no appreciable progress in multiple ministries either.
Reshuffle
There have been two bureaucratic budgets, and no one is expecting much from the third. No big bang economic reforms whatsoever have materialised. Instead, the government has adopted a cautious gradualism and lucked out over oil prices. It doesn’t feel like a Modi-led government at all, except for the bold foreign affairs initiatives, handled personally, and the resultant FDI. Modi has also done a yeoman job of controlling corruption at higher levels of governance.
In the cabinet, only Piyush Goyal in power, Nitin Gadkari in highways, and Sushma Swaraj in external affairs stand out. This state of affairs has left the BJP voter baffled. A cabinet reshuffle, therefore, is sorely needed, and fresh talent, if necessary from the diaspora, from academia, or the private sector, needs to be inducted. Only radical innovation can revive faith in Modi’s leadership, and clear the parliamentary logjam going forward.