What India stands to lose if Modi can't patch ties with Nepal
On May 26, 2014, 63-year-old Narendra Damodardas Modi was sworn in as the 15th prime minister of the Republic of India. Riding on the slogan of "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas", Modi led the right-wing BJP to a landslide victory in the 2014 general elections. The saffron outfit managed the unthinkable feat of winning 282 seats in Lok Sabha, the lower house of Indian Parliament and thus became the first political party in 30 years to command a majority of its own.
Background
Prior to becoming the prime minister of India, Modi served as the chief minister of Gujarat. He was credited for what many described as "developmental politics" and pro-business image. Under Modi's stewardship, Gujarat attracted big businesses through lavish investor meetings like the Vibrant Gujarat summit. Modi became popular as a decisive leader capable of spurring economic growth but outside of his state he remained controversial owing to his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. His international acceptance remained low and he attracted a significant amount of flak from the press.
However, after being re-elected as the chief minister of Gujarat for the fourth time, Modi increasingly began to assert his national ambitions. In spite of attempts by senior party leaders from within the BJP to thwart Modi's rise, he was chosen as the prime ministerial face of the party. With the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) suffering from a credibility crisis owing to an array of corruption scandals including the allocation of coal blocks and 2G spectrum, Modi unleashed a high octane electoral campaign pushing the Congress on the back foot and scripting one of the most decisive victories in contemporary Indian politics.
Grand swearing-in
If there was one area which Prime Minister Modi effectively countered from day one, that was foreign policy. Quick to shrug off the image of an international pariah, Modi extended an invite to the heads of state of the neighbouring SAARC nations. In attendance were heads of states as also their representatives, including Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa, Afghanistan president Ashraf Ghani, Nepal prime minister Sushil Koirala, Bhutan prime minister Tshering Tobgay and Bangladesh speaker of the House Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury.
While delivering a speech at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, Modi applauded his decision of inviting SAARC leaders to his swearing-in ceremony. "The entire world got a message and they are still talking about it, what happened, how it happened. It shows how effective a right decision taken at the right time can be."
Building Team Modi
Prime Minister Modi chose Sushma Swaraj to lead the external affairs ministry. Swaraj having formerly served as the leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha had played a major role in blunting the Congress-led coalition inside Parliament on several issues, including graft charges but remained largely sidelined during the general election campaign trail owing to her allegiance to the LK Advani camp. But Swaraj's choice as foreign minister hardly raised eyebrows because of the reputation she commanded within party circles. Former Army chief VK Singh was chosen as Swaraj's deputy in the external affairs ministry.
In January 2015, Modi appointed S Jaishankar, an Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer of the 1977 batch, having previously served as India's ambassador to the US and China, as the nation's foreign secretary. But the most important choice which Modi seems to have made in relation to foreign policy came within four days of assuming office. Modi appointed former director of Intelligence Bureau Ajit Doval, a retired 1968 batch Indian Police Service (IPS) officer as his national security adviser. The two are said to share a cordial relationship with the media describing Doval as Modi's "Man Friday".
Foreign visits
During the first 16 months of his prime ministership, Modi is said to have pursued a muscular foreign policy with a sharp emphasis on soft power. He has visited more than 30 countries including the US, United Kingdom, China, Russia, France, Brazil, Australia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan. Modi made it a point to visit countries with rich energy potential and strategic positioning. In the process, he became the first Indian premier after a long hiatus to visit Mongolia and the five Central Asian Republics - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Modi's foreign tours usually included visits to temples, gurdwaras and mosques as in countries like Bangladesh, Canada and United Arab Emirates (UAE) respectively. But the most prominent feature of Modi's foreign policy visits are his public speeches delivered inside packed stadia to non-resident Indians (NRIs) like the ones at New York's Madison Square Garden and London's Wembley stadium. During his recent trip to Singapore, a public event with Modi as the star attraction was reported to have attracted a crowd of over 18,000 people.
Modi's Nepal visit
Nepal is a landlocked country surrounded on three sides by the Republic of India. The two countries share deep historical and cultural linkages. Besides India, Nepal happens to be the only country in the world wherein the majority population consists of Hindus. Bilateral relations between the nations date back to the 1950 India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship with the two countries sharing open borders to encourage free movement of people. Nepali citizens are also provided with the privilege to work in a few Indian government services.
Shortly after becoming the prime minister, Modi embarked on a two day visit to Nepal in August 2014. During his address to the constituent assembly of Nepal, Modi mentioned that Nepal was the birthplace of Lord Buddha and praised the brave Nepali people. "Nepal-India relations are as old as the Himalayas and the Ganga," said Modi. He emphasised on the need for peaceful co-existence. He assured of non-interference in the country's internal matters and claimed that India does not aspire for Nepal's electricity for free but rather intends to buy it. He also lauded the efforts being made by Nepali leaders to draft their own constitution.
Modi's speech at the constituent assembly was an instant his. "The leader of the Opposition told Mr Modi that he had won the hearts and minds of Nepali with his words," revealed the then ministry of external affairs spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin to the media.
The visit included a trip to the Pashupatinath temple and several rounds of meetings with Nepal's Opposition leaders. Modi also held talks with his counterpart Sushil Koirala. But as The Hindu noted, "One of the big disappointments during Mr Modi's visit has been the failure to sign the Power Trade Agreement and the Project Development Agreement, both of which were to serve as a template for expediting development and energy cooperation between India and Nepal."
SAARC summit at Kathmandu
In November 2014, Modi paid his second visit to Nepal to attend the annual South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit. "This is my first SAARC summit. But, this is the second time I am meeting most of you together. I stepped into the office with the greetings of the entire world," said Modi in an apparent reference to his swearing-in ceremony.
Modi mentioned that despite being home to one-fourth of the world's population, regional trade among SAARC member states stood at less than five per cent. He batted for increased cooperation, better infrastructure and connectivity. Allaying fears of India's big brother attitude at SAARC, Modi said, "India has a huge trade surplus with SAARC countries. I believe this is neither right nor sustainable." The visit saw Modi flag off the Delhi-Kathmandu bus service and ink ten agreements in the realm of tourism, medicine and youth affairs. The two countries also formalised the $1 billion credit line agreement with India additionally promising to train 4,000 Nepali police officers annually.
The New Nepali constitution
Prime Minister Modi, during his trip to Nepal in November 2014, had echoed the need for framing an inclusive constitution. "I request all the political stakeholders to draft the constitution by early next year as committed through consensus, which will reflect aspirations of all communities, including Madhesis, Pahadis and Maoists... failing to do so can cause difficulties to Nepal and your difficulty despite our expertise to help you in this field is a matter of sadness," Modi said.
The overt interest which India showed in the framing of the Nepali constitution is precisely what tilted public opinion against India in Nepal and the relationship which seemed to be moving in a positive direction somehow suddenly lost way. On September 20, 2015, the Nepali constituent assembly formally adopted a new constitution. There were some apprehensions in relation to the safeguards provided in the constitution to protect the rights of the Madhesis.
The new constitution sought to put in place a federal structure which many thought would seriously "leave some historically marginalised groups under-represented in parliament." This led to a string of protests which were marred with violence. The Indian press, precisely The Indian Express, reported that the government of India had taken strong note of what was transpiring in Nepal and handed over to the Nepali government a list of suggested amendments to the constitution to safeguard the rights of the Madhesis. The claims were rubbished by the Indian government even as the newspaper stood by its report.
However, India's alleged fiddling into Nepal's internal affairs did not go down well with Nepali netizens as hastags like #BackOffIndia began to trend on Twitter. Earlier too, during the Nepal earthquake the Indian media was heavily criticised with hashtags like #GoBackIndianMedia trending on social media targeting Indian media persons for their jingoistic and patronising coverage of the post-quake relief operations.
The Nepali government has accused the government of India of resorting to an "unofficial economic blockade" to arm-twist reforms into the Nepali constitution. They allege that the diplomatic ploy is leading Nepal into a dangerous humanitarian crisis. The Diplomat Magazine reported that "Nepal's border with India has been blocked for more than two months... the blockade has choked imports of not only petroleum, but also medicines and earthquake relief material." It added that "New Delhi has blamed the blockade on violent protests by Nepal's ethnic Madhesi activists over their displeasure with federal boundaries and representation in parliament and public office, as provided for in the new constitution."
The Way forward
With anti-India sentiment on the rise in Nepal along with the alleged continuing of the "unofficial economic blockade", India-Nepal relations appear to be at its lowest point in a long time. In a recent opinion piece published in The Indian Express, former Union finance minister P Chidambaram suggested ways in which the relationship can be brought back on track. Elaborating on the Nepali viewpoint, Chidambaram wrote, "There are issues concerning Madhesis, but India should allow Nepal the space and time to resolve those issues through negotiations." He added that "a new constitution has been adopted by Nepal's parliament. If it requires amendments, they can be made in due course after negotiations (just as the Indian constitution has been amended over hundred times)."
Addressing the issue of economic blockade, Chidambaram argued that no matter what the reality was but the perception that India has resorted to an economic blockade is "getting stronger" with every passing moment. In conclusion, he wrote, "A message must go that India is a good neighbour and a reliable friend who will abide by the rules of engagement between neighbouring countries."
Whether Modi will act upon Chidambaram's advice is yet to be seen, but time is running out for India to act. With India-Pakistan relations far from being picture perfect and Sri Lanka too drifting towards China, India certainly can't afford the possibility of having yet another hostile country in its immediate neighbourhood.