Ahead of Modi's visit, where India-US ties stand as of now
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting the US the fourth time in his two years in office. This, taken with President Barack Obama's visit to India in 2015 as chief guest at our R-Day celebrations, indicates that both sides want to work together to expand bilateral ties in a way that their respective expectations are met and find as much common ground as possible on international issues where the views of the two countries differ.
Challenge
The challenge before India is to enlarge the areas of understanding with the US. It needs to soften the edges of differences over a whole host of political, security, and economic issues that are inescapable between a power that wants to maintain its hegemony, and a slowly rising power like India that is sensitive about the inequities of the present international system in which its say is limited and is unable to change US policies that hurt its interests.
In the circumstances, any viable Indian strategy would be to harness US support wherever possible to promote the government's development agenda which alone can make India strong and increase its weight in global decision-making. This requires an assiduous engagement of the US for building the right political atmosphere for promoting our interests.
However, building a stronger relationship with the US will severely test our diplomatic skills because of the constant US pressure to open up our economy more, usher in big-bang reforms, make regulatory changes, introduce legal structures that suit US corporate interests, tighten IPR provision and so on.
At the political level, we have to guard against closeness to the US affecting our freedom of action in foreign policy. If we seek some gains from wooing America, the US will look for reciprocal gains. The challenge will be to maintain a balance between the two.
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| Barack Obama at Nuclear Security Summit. (Reuters) |
Undoubtedly, the process of consolidation of India-US ties is being given personal attention by Modi and Obama.
Indian policymakers believe that White House oversight is required to push the relationship forward, as the state department is seen as wedded to past positions and prejudices developed during the Cold War and nurtured even afterwards on non-proliferation, Pakistan and human rights issues.
Not that this means that the White House can be counted to deliver what India wants. George W Bush was stubbornly soft on Pakistan on terrorism and Obama has not so far done anything dramatic in India's favour.
Re-galvanising
In fact, Modi has been personally energetic in re-galvanising the US relationship that had begun stagnating in the UPA's second term. He has struck a personal rapport with Obama and worked constructively with him on issues like climate change and renewable energy. His business-friendly credentials and assiduous cultivation the US corporate sector, his development plans for India for which he seeks US involvement and so on, have made India an attractive partner in the eyes of the US.
On several fronts, Modi has been clearing the ground for closer India-US ties. He has resolved the rift over our nuclear liability legislation. Progress has made in negotiations with Westinghouse for supply of nuclear reactors. Defence cooperation with the US has been expanded.
India-US military exercises are expanding. In the Joint Strategic Vision for Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions announced during Obama's January 2015 visit India boldly accepted that the security of these two maritime domains was interlinked, with China's new assertiveness, its naval expansion and its illegal actions in the western Pacific in view.
Expectations
If the positive direction of India-US relations is set to continue, any expectation that the US will radically change its policies on issues that are vital to India's security would be misplaced.
The US will not sanction Pakistan for its terrorist activities against India and will want to supply military assistance despite revived Congressional opposition. The US will counter China only where it directly challenges US power.
It will, therefore, treat China as a potential adversary in the western Pacific but as a partner in our region, as its willingness to promote a Chinese role in Afghanistan in collaboration with Pakistan shows. The US does not consider the Taliban as a terrorist organisation and is willing to accommodate it politically in Afghanistan in a Pakistani-brokered deal.
The US is not taking a position on the CPEC or Gwadar. No wonder, as some US officials acknowledge, India and the US have 95 per cent convergence in the east and 5 per cent convergence in the west.
India and the US are clashing on the WTO issues. The US has not delivered on India's APEC membership, or that of NSG and MTCR. During the Nuclear Security Summit, Obama surprised us by implicitly equated India and Pakistan on nuclear missteps. The issues involving our IT industry remain unresolved.
During his June visit, Modi will address the US Congress. He was denied this opportunity in September 2014. This shows the distance travelled in the relationship since then.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)