Pakistan crisis: What to expect from Nawaz Sharif’s no-nonsense brother Shahbaz
Less than three weeks before Pakistan’s 70th independence anniversary (on July 28), the nation’s PM Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court from being a member of Parliament by a panel of five judges under Article 62 1(f) for taking salary from a Dubai-based Capital FZE company as its chairman - this was not disclosed by Sharif in his 2013 nomination forms.
Said the order: “He is disqualified to be a Member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament).”
Ironically, Articles 62 and 63 had been introduced earlier by former military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq, and Sharif’s party had defended their inclusion in the Constitution.
Sharif’s woes began with the Panama Papers leak in April 2016. Leaked files published by Mossack Fonseca revealed that Sharif’s children had set up offshore companies in British Virgin Islands which owned properties in London. Immediately, Imran Khan of the PTI filed a case against Sharif.
In April 2017, the Supreme Court gave a split verdict where three of the five judges gave a verdict in favour of Sharif, but suggested an inquiry into the money trail.
Sharif’s successor is likely to be his brother, the dynamic, no-nonsense CM of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif. In the meantime, however, there will be an interim PM from the PML-N.
Significantly, this is the third time that Sharif has not been able to complete his full five-year term. While in 1993 he was dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, in 1999, a military coup led by General Pervez Musharraf led to his ouster, and Sharif was in exile for over eight years in Saudi Arabia and UK.
Sharif’s receding control since 2014
In 2013, Sharif had won with a thumping majority, and in spite of problems with the country’s army, he was quite mature and avoided getting into any sort of conflict with the forces. From the second year itself, he was bogged down with problems.
In 2014, there were protests by cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri and PTI chief Khan alleging electoral fraud by the PM in the elections of 2013, which Sharif managed to survive. The protests were said to have the backing of the military and ISI.
As a consequence of the protests, and counter-terrorism operation Zarb-E-Azb launched against the Taliban, former Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif became a dominant figure. During his visit to the US for instance, the former army chief got media coverage, and was lauded for his counter-terrorism efforts.
One area which did prove to be a bone of contention between the civilian government of Sharif and the army was engagement with India. While Sharif sought to reach out to India, his efforts were thwarted by the army.
In August 2013, soon after Sharif took over, five Indian soldiers were ambushed in Jammu and Kashmir, by terrorists who had the support of the Pakistan army. On the eve of the meeting between Sharif and then PM Manmohan Singh in September 2013, there was a terror attack in Kashmir.
In December 2013, however, Sharif’s brother Shahbaz visited India and met with Singh to cool down tempers. In May 2014, while Sharif did attend the swearing-in of PM Narendra Modi, the relationship between the two countries remained tense for over a year. Tensions across the LOC increased on the one hand, while on the other Pakistan became more aggressive on the Kashmir issue.
In November 2015, Modi and Sharif met on the sidelines of the climate change meeting. Less than a week after Modi’s stop-over at Lahore, there was a terrorist attack in Pathankot, and this reduced space for any sort of meaningful progress.
One of the consequences of Sharif’s weakening was that his government became more assertive on Kashmir. 2016 witnessed escalated tensions in the aftermath of the Uri terror attack in September, which witnessed the killing of 19 Indian soldiers.
Tensions across the LOC increased, and in September of the same year, India carried out surgical strikes along the LOC.
While Raheel Sharif’s successor General Qamar Bajwa initially seemed reconciliatory, he too upped the ante.
"We will always stand by their (Kashmiris) rightful political struggle for the right of self-determination and recourse to basic human rights," he said.
The opposition and sections of the civil society in Pakistan have welcomed the verdict against Sharif. Imran Khan, for instance, said: “It’s the beginning… today’s decision will strengthen and evolve democracy in Pakistan, as accountability is the fundamental element of the democratic process.”
One must also not forget, that irrespective of all charges, an elected government should be removed by the people, and in this decision there is a clear imprint of the establishment. It would be pertinent to mention that this very judiciary had let General Pervez Musharraf off the hook.
Similarly, Sharif could have pulled the plug on the previous Asif Ali Zardari government, but he avoided such a move in order to ensure stability.
What can one expect from his successor?
Shahbaz too has good terms with the Communist Party. During his visit in July 2016, Sharif met with high-level dignitaries of the party. The Chinese have appreciated Shahbaz’s administrative acumen.
He has good ties with the Turkish leadership and business community as well. During his tenure as CM of Punjab, he sought to build linkages with Indian Punjab and like his brother has been a votary of better ties with India.
Nawaz Sharif’s dismissal may have multiple effects. Cases of financial irregularities by leaders of other political parties will emerge and the chorus for investigations will grow. In other countries of the neighbourhood, including India, there will be a call for similar investigations. As many as 500 Indians have been named in the Panama Papers.
While sections of the opposition and the army may think they have had the last laugh, Sharif could benefit in the elections of 2018, by gaining the sympathy of pro-democratic forces.