Bihar polls: How Janata Parivar leaves Nitish Kumar the biggest loser
On June 8, the Janata Parivar - a coalition of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Janata Dal United (JD-U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party - faced with "there-is-no-alternative" to Nitish Kumar, decided to contest the forthcoming Assembly elections in Bihar with the incumbent chief minister as its face. But the announcement, made by SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, was not before some internal squabble between RJD chief Lalu Prasad and Kumar. Lalu, who had earlier wanted someone from his own party to lead the coalition in the upcoming elections, was finally persuaded by Mulayam and agreed on Kumar's candidature. While the leadership issue might have been settled, there are several hindrances to be overcome – foremost being the sharing of seats. Even though Kumar has aligned with the RJD and the Congress, the odds are heavily against him owing to the following reasons:
Anti-incumbency owing to a ten-year rule: The JD(U) is in power in Bihar since November 24, 2005. It will complete ten years of ruling Bihar by the time elections are held later this year. Kumar himself has been sworn in as the chief minister thrice during this period – first on November 24, 2005, then on November 26, 2010 and then again on February 22, 2015.
Breaking away from the BJP: JD(U) rode to power in 2005 with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as its pre-poll alliance partner. The JD(U), which was a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by the BJP, returned to power in the 2010 Assembly elections. However, the party broke away from the NDA on June 16, 2013 in protest against Narendra Modi’s elevation as chairperson of the BJP’s election campaign committee. Kumar also removed 11 ministers of the BJP from his cabinet. But the split with the BJP has gone against the JD(U). Kumar’s image has taken a major beating as he is being accused of ditching the BJP on whose support it had not only come to power twice but had also managed to rule Bihar efficiently and smoothly.
Dumping Jitan Ram Manjhi as Bihar chief minister: Kumar resigned from the chief minister’s post on May 17, 2014, taking moral responsibility for his party's poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He anointed Manjhi, a Mahadalit, as the chief minister in his place to reap electoral benefits. The category constitutes 31 per cent of the Dalit population in the state, which Kumar himself had carved out from the Dalits, by identifying 18 of the 22 Dalit sub castes. With Manjhi asserting himself, and seeing his growing proximity with the BJP, Kumar replaced him in just nine months and became the chief minister once again on February 22, 2015. This has not gone down well with the Mahadalits. Kumar is likely to lose their votes as Manjhi has considerable hold over them. Manjhi is now being courted by all the parties – the BJP, Congress and RJD. Kumar’s flip-flop on Manjhi has dented his image.
Allying with Lalu's RJD: Lalu's influence is mainly restricted to the Yadav and Muslim vote-banks. The people of Bihar have not yet forgotten the RJD's misrule during the tenures of Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi. The law and order situation and development had become the biggest casualties during their 15-year rule. Lalu has also been jailed several times in corruption cases including the infamous fodder scam. He was convicted in 2013 and debarred from contesting elections. The Patna High Court’s observation made in 1997 that there was "jungle raj" in Bihar has become synonymous with the RJD rule. The party has never performed satisfactorily in elections since it lost power in 2005. It won just 22 Assembly seats in the 2010 elections in the 243-member House and four Lok Sabha seats each in the 2009 and 2014 general elections.
Allying with the Congress: The Congress hardly has any presence in Bihar now. It won just four seats in the 2010 Assembly elections and two seats each in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party does not even have any prominent leader in the state. It has been constantly on a downward slide, particularly after its defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It would be a clear advantage for Narendra Modi when both Rahul Gandhi and the prime minister campaign in Bihar.
Jolt to law and order and development: The state's crime graph had shot up and kidnappings for ransom had become rampant during RJD’s 15-year-rule. This was brought under control during the JD(U)-BJP coalition rule between 2005 and 2010. Development works were also undertaken in the right earnest during this period. However, the situation has been back to square one ever since the JD(U) separated from the BJP. This has prompted the BJP to throw barbs at the JD(U) rule saying Bihar was witnessing "jungle raj-two".