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Sangh-mukt Bharat front plan problematic for Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi

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Ashok K Singh
Ashok K SinghApr 18, 2016 | 17:52

Sangh-mukt Bharat front plan problematic for Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s clarion call to non-BJP parties to make the country Sangh-mukt (Sangh-free) is well-meant but it’s fraught with an element of unintended consequences if pursued in haste.

The unexpected result of Nitish’s Sangh-mukt (Sangh-free) campaign may help Prime Minister Narendra Modi in pushing his Congress-mukt agenda and succeed. Nitish’s plan may throw the Congress in further disarray and the party vice president Rahul Gandhi into oblivion.

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Since Nitish's victory in Bihar, there have been speculations about his ambitions at national level.

Nitish has made a tactical error in hogging the limelight on the issue coinciding with takeover of the Janata Dal (United), or JD (U) leadership by him. It’s not a secret that Nitish’s camp followers have been projecting him to be the chief opposition protagonist to take on Modi in the 2019 elections.

Since his stellar victory in the Bihar elections, there have been speculations about his ambition at the national level. The speculations have got credence after his decision to replace Sharad Yadav as the JD (U) president. Also, Nitish hasn’t taken care to scotch the speculation about his prime ministerial ambition.

As an experienced leader, Nitish would know that it’s not merely an issue about efforts to forge anti-BJP unity to force Modi out of power in 2019. The more important and a very sensitive, touchy question on the road to forging unity among parties of difference persuasions and history is the leadership issue.

Who will lead the future coalition against Modi? What role will Rahul Gandhi play in the event of Nitish’s projection as leader of coalition? One might say they will cross the bridge when it comes.

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No, it’s not as simple as that because it involves the future of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party’s future as well.

Congress, for long the prima donna of Indian politics, has never been a junior partner in any coalition at the Centre. It has never been part of a government not headed by a Gandhi or someone nominated by them, as in Manmohan Singh’s case.

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Though much weakened, the Congress is still the only pan-India party.

The party doesn’t fancy a role for itself in a coalition. On every occasion in the past, when need arose to fashion a coalition to avoid instability or mid-term elections, the Congress risked elections.

The first such occasion arose in 1979 after the fall of the Morarji Desai government. Charan Singh split the party ostensibly on the issue of MPs of Jan Sangh constituent having membership of the RSS even after merger with the Janata Party. However, the real reason was his prime ministerial ambition.

The Congress stoked Charan Singh’s ambition and helped him become the prime minster lending outside support to his minority government. Within six months, Indira Gandhi led the Congress to withdraw the support, bring down the government and return to power.

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In 1996 after PV Narasimha Rao failed to win the majority in the elections, the Congress installed HD Deve Gowda at the head of a coalition government by providing outside support. When differences cropped up with Gowda, the Congress pulled him down to install IK Gujral-led government. Within a year, the Congress saw Gujral out and went to poll though the party failed to win majority.

Nitish must remember history to understand the complexities of Congress’s role before entering into a partnership. Besides history, geography is an even more compelling factor in understanding and deciding the Congress’s character and role vis-à-vis the BJP.

Though much weakened and emasculated, the Congress is still the only pan-India party in terms of spread as well as organisational structure. It’s the second largest party in Parliament despite its worst performance. 

Therefore, Rahul Gandhi will have reason to stake claim to the leadership of non-BJP parties in the fight against Modi. Now the question arises whether Rahul will have the acceptability and credibility among the group of non-BJP parties for leading an anti-Modi front.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that the Congress will cede the space of projecting itself as a claimant to power despite Rahul’s questionable record. 

Because ceding that space would bring the risk of further marginalisation of the Congress. The whole party’s structure and ethos are geared towards a system of patronage that sustains party workers even when the Congress sits outside the power. 

Rahul Gandhi, himself, is a reason why the family and followers can’t afford to play second fiddle to any other party at the national level. With his leadership already under question, the family will be faced with an existential risk, including inner party revolt, and splits in the event of accepting Nitish or anybody else as fulcrum of power against Modi.

One may argue that Rahul has already accepted the junior partner role in Bihar and in West Bengal. He might even be prepared to play a subservient role in UP next year. But the two situations are not comparable for one simple reason - already stated above - that the Congress’s geographical presence and its overall size far exceed regional parties.

Nitish might have floated a trial balloon to gauge the reaction of the Congress and other parties. His call for a Sangh-mukt country might be a statement of intent with a view to forging an anti-Modi political front without the tricky issue of leadership weighing over his mind at this point of time. However, the spectre of Congress-mukt India will be weighing on Rahul’s mind in accepting Nitish as a leader of Sangh-mukt Bharat campaign and anti-Modi front.

Last updated: April 19, 2016 | 12:26
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