Modi cannot rely on Trump to tackle the threat Pakistan and China pose

All eyes will be peeled on President-elect Donald Trump's showbiz-style inauguration on Friday, January 20.

The real action though begins on Monday, January 23 when Trump has pledged to hit the ground running and "sign lots of notifications", some undoing policies of the Obama administration. Obamacare, the controversial medical insurance scheme for low-income Americans, could be the first casualty.

Rex Tillerson, the incoming secretary of state, has meanwhile already roiled China by telling it to stop monopolising the South China Sea.

Tillerson, the former chairman of ExxonMobil, directed his ire at China's aggressive moves to build artificial islands in the South China Sea: "First the island building (must) stop and second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed."

Beijing reacted with customary fury through its official mouthpiece Global Times:

"China has enough determination and strength to make sure that (Tillerson's) rabble rousing will not succeed. Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish. Tillerson's statements regarding islands in the South China Sea are far from professional. If Trump's diplomatic team shapes future Sino-US ties as it is doing now, the two sides had better be prepared for a military clash."

Behind Beijing's bluster lies a deep sense of insecurity. China's annual military budget at $146 billion is less than one-fourth America's ($614 billion). Its navy is hopelessly outgunned.

America has 19 aircraft carriers and 68 battleships. China has just one aircraft carrier and 32 battleships. The last war China fought was in 1979 when tiny Vietnam gave it a bloody nose in a short, sharp battle that left Beijing humiliated.

That was the year President Deng Xiaoping launched China's ambitious economic reforms which have transformed the country from an impoverished behemoth to the world's second largest economy in little over a generation.

China's economy slows

And yet China still has many vulnerabilities. Public and private debt is unsustainably high. Banks are over-leveraged. Exports have declined for two consecutive years. Last week, the official export numbers were released for calendar 2016: exports fell by 7.7 per cent over 2015, the year exports had first begun slipping.

Chinese GDP growth is slowing as well. China's official position is that it is comfortable with the current GDP growth rate of 6.5 per cent. In reality, GDP growth - without fudged numbers - is nearer 5 per cent as the economy cools.

For India, America's bellicosity towards China is welcome. Incoming defence secretary General James Mattis said at his confirmation hearing last week that US ties with India are of "utmost importance".

General Mattis, who takes over from outgoing defence secretary Ashton Carter, added: "US policy should continue to pursue a long-term strategic relationship with India based on convergence of our interests and our shared democratic values."

General Mattis was blunt about confronting China, saying Washington should not tolerate "inappropriate" Chinese behaviour and deepen its partnership with India.

He added: "We have a strong interest in ensuring safe and secure access to maritime routes there, and to a stable, peaceful and prosperous region. India, Australia, Japan, and several of the Gulf Cooperation Council states are key partners for addressing the security challenges in this region, and it is my view that increasing our security assistance and military-to-military engagement with strategically positioned nations such as these is essential."

General Mattis' remarks are being closely followed in Pakistan which since 2001 has successfully "gamed" two successive American administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. That could be about to change.

Untrustworthy Pakistan

General Mattis, nicknamed "Mag Dog Mattis", says coldly: "Sanctuaries and freedom of movement for the Afghan Taliban and associated militant networks inside Pakistani territory is a key operational issue faced by the Afghan security forces. I will examine efforts to deny sanctuary to the extremist forces undermining the stability and security of Afghanistan. We have long faced a lack of trust within the Pakistani military and government about our goals in the region."

Cynics say they've heard it all before. America under Trump will continue to be gamed by the shrewd, ruthless generals in Rawalpindi GHQ who use their country's geostrategic location and in-house terror groups to remain indispensable to the three great powers: America, Russia and China.

New Delhi cannot rely on a Trump presidency or Mattis-Tillerson rhetoric to tackle the threat Pakistan and China pose to India. Pakistan believes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) makes it indispensable to China as well as Russia which needs to sell to China a large portion of its oil and gas that is currently under severe sanctions from the US following Moscow's annexation of Crimea.

But there are increasing signs that the CPEC may not be quite the lottery Pakistan thinks it has won. Apart from growing violence in Balochistan where the CPEC begins, problems have surfaced in Gilgit-Baltistan through which it passes on the way to Xinjiang.

China has reportedly closed part of its border with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) to stem the flow of terrorists who pose a long-term threat to the CPEC. The blunt message from Beijing to Islamabad: you can have either the CPEC or terrorists, not both.

For India, the challenge as the Trump administration takes office this week is to make clear to Washington that, as far as Pakistan and China are concerned, it can't be business as usual.

In the end though India must be prepared to act alone. The new chief of army staff, General Bipin Rawat, was right to assert last week that India wants peace with Pakistan. However, if Islamabad does not reciprocate, he said future surgical strikes on Pakistani soil cannot be ruled out.

Peace is a priceless commodity. But it needs strength to win it.