Don't trust Pakistan, they will keep sending terror towards India
Two recent signals have led analysts to believe that Pakistan is rethinking its decades-old strategy of using terrorism against India as an instrument of state policy.
First, the new Pakistan chief of army staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, unlike his India-obsessed predecessor General Raheel Sharif, is seen as less confrontational. Ceasefire violations have reduced significantly since General Bajwa took charge on November 29, 2016.
Snow, however, rather than any dovish policy change is the key factor. Terror infiltration has not reduced significantly, leading credence to the belief that Pakistan’s policy of bleeding India by a thousand cuts remains unaltered.
Sanctions
The second signal comes from the White House: Pakistan was warned through diplomatic channels last month that it could be subjected to international sanctions aimed at stopping terror financing. A rattled Islamabad placed Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) founder and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) mentor Hafiz Saeed under house arrest to mollify the Trump administration.
The JuD meanwhile quickly changed its name to Tehreek Azadi Jammu & Kashmir (TAJK) to escape sanctions. Pakistan is mortally afraid of being sanctioned by the US and its allies under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). That would cut terror financing vital to terrorist groups like the LeT. Islamabad may not be in imminent danger of being put on the FATF blacklist (from which it emerged only two years ago) but another terrorist attack on Indian soil traced back to the ISI could tip the balance.
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| A rattled Islamabad placed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) mentor Hafiz Saeed under house arrest to mollify the Trump administration. |
Leopards though don’t change their spots. Pakistan’s interior ministry said defiantly: “Pakistan does not need any certification or endorsement from India over the recent actions it has taken in relation to Hafiz Saeed. India has constantly been using Saeed’s political activities as a tool to malign Pakistan. The international community should take note and understand that Pakistan is a democratic society where the judiciary takes free, independent and transparent decisions.”
Saeed’s arrest (which only amounts to protective custody in a safe house) citied an old UNSC resolution (1267 of December 2008), adopted following the 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai. The Bush and Obama administrations turned a blind eye to the UN’s $10 million (Rs 67 crore) bounty on Saeed’s head. Pakistan hopes the Trump administration will do the same. It might be right.
Defence secretary James “Mad Dog” Mattis last week in Tokyo called Iran the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Pakistan was not mentioned. That would have pleased Islamabad which has run circles around successive US administrations for nearly 20 years.
Shia Iran is locked in a battle with Sunni Saudi Arabia for primacy in the Middle East. The Islamic State (ISIS) received early funding from Saudi Arabia and Qatar before ISIS turned on the Saudi royals, vowing to unseat them.
Pakistan is part of the Saudi orbit. General Raheel Sharif heads the proposed 39-country Islamic Military Alliance (IMA) to fight Islamist terror. Shia Iran, Syria and Iraq are notably absent from the coalition.
Quagmire
By targeting Iran as the principal source of terror, the US defence secretary has given Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, both founts of global terror, a free pass. Islamabad’s relief though could be shortlived. While James Mattis is Iran-focused, others in the Trump administration, including National Security Advisor General Michael Flynn, know the danger Pakistan poses.
On Tuesday, February 7, the US moved a proposal in the UN to designate Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar a global terrorist. China again blocked it. A concerted bid to name Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism floundered under the Obama White House which flatly refused to consider it.
Congressman Ted Poe, chairman of the sub-committee on terrorism, tabled a bill in September 2016 to designate Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism. The bill got nowhere. That could now change. Trump is serious about Islamist terrorism and especially defeating ISIS. The recapture of Raqqa, ISIS’s de facto headquarters in Syria, is taking longer than expected. The battle for Mosul in Iraq too is stuck in a quagmire.
Strategy
As the Trump administration turns its attention east of Iran, it will have to deal with Pakistan’s terror role in Afghanistan and India. Sensing the danger to its transactional friend, China has sent vice foreign minister Cheng Guoping, in charge of external security and terrorism, to Islamabad. Beijing has finally recognised that Pakistan’s terror factory poses a threat to its Muslim province Xinjiang in the northwest as well as to work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Balochistan.
With pressure mounting from Washington and Beijing, Pakistan will be forced to recalibrate its strategy on India. It may reduce terror attacks outside Jammu & Kashmir but continue funding and arming militants in the Valley under the umbrella of freedom fighters. The JuD’s new name, Tehreek Azadi Jammu & Kashmir, is a clear indication of this new strategy.
For India, three responses are necessary. First, liaise closely with the White House to sanction Pakistan. Second, improve the armed forces’ and paramilitaries’ working conditions and equipment. Third, do not be seduced into an early resumption of talks following a few cosmetic arrests of Hafiz Saeed and other JuD/LeT terrorists.
There may be a brief lull in terror attacks against India but for the Pakistani army old habits die hard. Do not trust. Verify.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)