2018 Assembly Elections victory puts Rahul Gandhi in pole position to lead emerging Mahagathbandan
Congress' performance in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has given Rahul Gandhi the pole position in the proposed Mahagathbandan for May 2019 Lok Sabha polls. A firm indication was evident when Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati extended support to the Congress-led government in Madhya Pradesh. Mayawati’s gesture was quickly followed by Akhilesh Yadav offering support of his lone MLA in MP assembly to the Congress. The goodwill gesture was without any precondition.
The failure of the Telangana experiment may have subdued Andhra chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, but Rahul is all set to make state-wise Mahagathbandan against the Narendra Modi led NDA. Indications are that both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan governments would try to accommodate the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party representatives in the new government.
Yesterday was a day when Rahul Gandhi completed a year as the Congress' party chief. His stature within and outside the Congress has gone up considerably. For the first time since 2014, the BJP has been beaten comprehensively in a direct contest between Modi-Amit shah led BJP and Rahul Gandhi-led Congress. Rahul will now be under pressure to either declare himself as a prime ministerial candidate or prop up a regional ally. Both options have their own negative consequences.
All eyes are now Mayawati’s next move. Is she prepared to play second fiddle to Rahul Gandhi? Something the dalit icon had been resisting strongly. The Congress' success had a possibility of further alienating BSP-Mayawati from the Mahagathbandan and pushing her in an anxious BJP-NDA stable.
But as it stands, the BSP leadership has blinked fearing a huge backlash in home state Uttar Pradesh had she not supported a Congress regime in Bhopal. In any case, Mayawati’s induction in the NDA is easier said than done. Temperamentally, she is unlikely to approve the action and style of functioning of Uttar Pradesh's chief minister Yogi Adityanath.
In fact, the BJP tent in UP is inadequate and rather small to fulfill Bahen jee’s aspirations. With 70 Lok Sabha and over 320 MLAs, leaving enough parliamentary and assembly seats for BSP in any alliance arrangement can be a harrowing experience.
From J&K to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh to Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, the entire Hindi heartland has 273 Lok Sabha seats. Out of this, the BJP has over 200 Lok Sabha seats. If today’s verdict of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is to be taken in account along with the likelihood of a Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party coming together, there is a real possibility of BJP losing anything from 80 to 100 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 general elections.
The electoral success of a potential ally in Telangana and prospects of increasing the NDA tally in the North East, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu can hardly account of a fourth of the probable shortfall.
The Congress' success in Chhattisgarh is most glaring and pronounced. Here was a state where the grand old party did not take a strong regional satrap. Perceived acceptability and popularity of a 'chawal wale baba', armed with a series of welfare schemes under his belt and fight against Naxal violence, had Raman Singh a clear winner.
But voters felt otherwise and punished him severely. Imagine a scenario of voters in the rest of India opting to vote as per the Chhattisgarh model? Perhaps they will note. But a note of caution is required for all those who believe in prime ministerial democracy or rely solely on a personality cult.
There are many issues that need careful reading. Were demonetisation and GST responsible for the downfall of the BJP regime? Is agrarian distress more serious than what BJP likes to imagine and have the amendments to SC-ST (prevention of atrocities) act alienated the upper caste from the BJP in the Hindi belt? More significantly, is Narendra Modi, a vote catcher, no longer at premium.
The non-NDA opposition now has a reason to be confident about reducing prime minister Modi’s strength in the 17th Lok Sabha polls. A successful Mahagathbandan against Modi requires the right equilibrium between a resurgent Congress [where it is in a direct contest against the BJP] and a good showing by non-NDA regional satraps in UP, Bihar, Bengal, Andhra, Tamil Nadu etc.
But ambitious anti-Modi players are unable to mix good chemistry and prudent arithmetics to edge out the Modi regime in the parliamentary Polls.
A word about Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
The former BJP chief minister fought a valiant battle but perhaps could not overcome the jinx that has been attached to Ujjain Kumbh Simhastha that he had enthusiastically organised barely two years ago. It is said that Simhastha, held after every 12 years, has a history of ensuring that the host chief minister does not return to power.
State’s first chief minister Pandit Ravi Shankar Shukla died in 1956, months after hosting Simhastha. Twelve years later, it was Govind Narain Singh in 1968, who had to demit office. Sunderlal Patwa lost the job in 1980 and again in 1992 as aftermath of Babri demolition. In 2003, Uma Bharti had posted a spectacular victory but post-Simahstha 2004, unexpected developments forced her to resign in August 2004. In Chouhan’s defeat, the Simhastha superstition has gained strength.