What BJP and Congress can expect in Rajasthan Assembly polls

In December 2016, the Vasundhara Raje government will complete three years in power, in Rajasthan, with two years to go for elections. In the practical sense, Raje is left with just one year to prove that she has made a difference to the state. So far, she has been slower than she was in her previous tenure as chief minister and many suspect that she was given the wrong advice about following her predecessor Ashok Gehlot's failed policy of delaying works till the election year.

She has also wrongly followed Gehlot's tactics of delaying political appointments, which has left too many party workers disappointed, and committed a blunder by relying too much on bureaucrats — especially those whose loyalty to her is questionable. That is why there is a ray of hope for the Congress that if it works out a proper strategy, it can snatch power from the BJP in a closely-contested competition.

Within the BJP too, there is a feeling that the time has come to display aggression, reward loyalists who have to be deployed again in the next elections and as a crucial step towards it, go for forming the executive committee of the state BJP, make necessary changes in the organisation — and reshuffle portfolios and expand the Cabinet. That is why, on October 10, Raje had a 45-minute long meeting with party president Amit Shah, with state BJP president Ashok Parnami and joint secretary organisation V Satish in attendance.

It will be a tough task for Raje to satisfy as many of the cadre feel they were abandoned after the party did well in the Assembly and general elections. Although Raje's frequent visits to districts and jansunwai does allow workers to meet her and take up local issues, it is very clear that she was wrongly put on the defensive by her advisers.

Instead of making her work at a very fast pace, given the excellent majority she had in Assembly, Raje was made to believe that it would be difficult to meet the aspirations of so many MLAs despite the fact that she has been given a lot of freedom in forming the Cabinet.

Besides, in a departure from her previous tenure when Raje — instead of blaming previous Congress government for bad financial management proved that she could deliver from the word go — the CM has now been advised to follow Gehlot in continuing to blame previous government's failures for non-performance.

Voters do not appreciate it in third year because they brought her to power only because Gehlot had repeatedly failed. Somehow, her poor show narrows down to her choice of bureaucrats.

Some ministers often say they find it difficult to take along their departmental secretaries, who - instead of facilitating execution - create more hurdles that would result in the loss of votes.

For example, gradually, it is coming out that those entrusted with organising Resurgent Rajasthan, an investors meet last year, signed too many MoUs by exaggerating the amount of investment.

Although Raje has shifted out her principal secretary, industry since, the damage this has caused will be difficult to undo. One doesn't find investors who promised to invest actually doing it.

Moreover, despite making a controversial concession to Mahindra group by facilitating land allotment through RIICO for commercial usage in SEZ, the property is yet to see takers. This will be projected as a scam during the Assembly elections by Congress. In fact, little has been added to the SEZ in the last many years. Similarly, despite holding a lot of meetings, one wonders why no investor has come forward to build roads in the state.

Earlier, the delay was blamed on the poor decision making of Gajendra Haldia, the government's then adviser on PPP projects, but after he was sacked for his failure, there hasn't been much progress either.

The joke in the state is that Raje should bring on deputation bureaucrats from other states to put the state in the fast-forward mode. Else, it will continue to suffer with bad roads and be choked with filth streets in towns and cities with smart cities remaining only a dream. In fact, some bureaucrats have learnt the art of selling dreams to Raje who dreams big, knowing well that the state won't be able to implement them and, thus, in the end, turns them into a fiasco.

This included going out of the state's way to give contracts to construction agencies including those known for corrupt practices at a heavy cost for the works that the state could have managed on its own. No bureaucrat is held accountable for such flawed decisions, some of them, instead, get rewarded.

While it is a mere hope that she will be able to prove to Rajasthan that she has been bringing in development, the Congress is aiming at giving the BJP a tough fight if the elections are held today - a dream propogated by former chief minister Ashok Gehlot.

He continues to make his presence felt on social media through his tweets on every issue — including on Virat Kohli's double century and surgical strikes — but it is clear that he is losing ground within the party to Sachin Pilot, PCC president.

The state bureaucracy is sympathetic to Gehlot as many officers have worked with him, but the former CM has had a bitter experience with some of whom he once considered loyal.

Gehlot heads Bharat Scouts and Guides and his election was because of his trusted officer Niranjan Arya, who was the commissioner of its Rajasthan unit. In a detailed press release, Gehlot had accused the Raje government of not letting Arya contest elections and of using government machinery to facilitate the election of JC Mohanty, once Gehlot's blue-eyed officer who later became Raje's trusted aide. As a part of the CMO, Arya was notorious for issuing directions to harass the critics of Gehlot, so the former CM has got a taste of his own politics.

While Raje and Gehlot seem to have fallen prey to the state bureaucracy, which works at its own pace irrespective of who is in power, Pilot has an advantage because, so far, he does not have such preferences and illusions.

It is because of this fresh approach that he has brought to the state, which Raje too was once known for, that Pilot has begun to win support of party workers. It is commendable because many of them owed their survival to Gehlot who had monopolised control over the Congress for decades.

The party high command has been pushing for Pilot and this has made Gehlot insecure. Another potential candidate for chief-ministership in Congress, CP Joshi, has been left with few supporters. However, he will rely on his connections with the high command with whom he has built base.

On the other hand, Gehlot's support in the high command has been depleting with the ascent of Rahul Gandhi and he is banking upon last-minute miracles to become the chief minister again if the Congress wins.

Although Gehlot says that Raje's defeat is certain, Pilot refrains from making such open declarations and is more concerned with making workers realise that they have a long way ahead. His strategy involves ensuring that the state unit not only fights on local issues, but also keeps the national agenda of the party alive so that the people feel Congress is a better choice both at the national and state levels.

On the other hand, Raje needs special support from the Centre right now so that she can start showing results well in time for next elections.

As prime minister Narendra Modi has seen, his massive package announced for Bihar during elections did not get him votes. In Rajasthan, only if the Centre announces the setting up of a refinery in Barmer and the second phase of a metro from its funds, as well as releases a special package on drinking water and irrigation schemes, can the BJP hope for a big victory in the 2018 elections.