Why Russia stands to gain the most in the North Korea crisis
The international community has been baffled with Kim Jong-un's behaviour ever since he assumed power in 2012. A year later, Forbes named young Kim as World's 46th Most Powerful Person - a ranking he has consistently enjoyed until the most recent 2016 list, when he climbed three seats.
Yet, the age of information has proved incapable of decoding the enigmatic "Supreme Leader" and world's most isolated country. Interestingly, even Kim's birth date differs in South Korean, American and Swiss records.
Purges and executions, human rights violations and developing weapons of mass destruction mark Kim Jong-un's five-year rule. Executions include Kim's uncle Jang Song-thaek and his remaining family members along with deputy security minister O Sang-hon. On the nuclear front, Kim Jong-un has launched more missiles in 2017 alone (18) than his father (16) and grandfather (15) in their lifetime, blatantly disregarding sanctions by the United Nations Security Council.
Kim's nuclear tests achieved their apotheosis on September 3 when the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) declared a hydrogen bomb test a "perfect success". As a consequence, a new round of sanctions was adopted (by a unanimous vote) on September 11 on North Korea's oil imports, overseas labourer contracts, textile exports, smuggling efforts and potential economic ventures with foreign nations. The new sanctions will cost North Korea approximately $1.3 billion in annual revenue.
On the other hand, North Korea threatened that "forthcoming measures by the DPRK will cause the United States the greatest pain and suffering it had ever gone through in its entire history" if the sanctions are approved.
So, where does all this lead us? The answer is Russia.
Under president Vladimir Putin, Russia's diplomacy is characterised by realism and, as such, the pursuit of power when an opportunity arises. Indeed, recent years have witnessed Putin's Russia playing a leading role in world affairs. In Europe, Moscow has been consistently favouring Eurosceptic parties as a way of undermining established European Union institutions. In the Middle East, Moscow has played a pivotal role in keeping its long-time ally, Bashar Al-Assad, in power despite West's vehement condemnation.
And last, but certainly not the least, according to US's intelligence agencies, Moscow appears to have influenced the 2016 US presidential elections which resulted in Donald Trump's election. The Korean "front" therefore, presents yet another opportunity to Russia.
Moscow's benefits from the Korean crisis are multi-fold. First, cementing relations with ambitious superpower China and extending influence in Asia, second, using sanctions against Pyongyang as leverage.
As China's power status rises - politically and economically - Beijing is expected to assume a greater role in world affairs. Indeed, Beijing, now more than ever, has an aggressive manifestation of territorial claims in South China Sea, which has undoubtedly concerned Taipei, Ho Chi Minh, Manilla, Kuala Lumpur (the directly involved) and troubled New Delhi, Seoul, Tokyo and Canberra.
The Korean crisis, presents yet another "front" whereby China should - as the leading voice in Asia - mediate in. Failure in doing so would raise questions over Beijing's power credibility.
Beijing's warning of non-interference in case of Pyongyang's aggression against the United States has showcased its willingness to defuse tensions in the Korean Peninsula and at the same time, its inability to deal on multiple fronts. For as long as Kim Jong-un stubbornly ignores Beijing's instructions - which according to latest remarks by the "Supreme Leader" seems to be the case - a powerful ally will be needed in coping with a new "front in the making" and which Putin gladly can contribute to by extending Russia's influence in Asia.
As of March 2014, Russia has suffered from economic sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia as a response to Moscow's Crimea annexation. Sanctions have become tougher following Moscow's aggressive policy towards eastern Ukraine and its playing the destabilising factor in reaching a lasting peaceful resolution.
Indeed, in June, EU member-states agreed to extend economic sanctions by six months, whereas the United States passed a bill in August extending new sanctions against Russia's energy and defence sectors.
When on September 11 Russia voted in favour of sanctions against Pyongyang, it saw yet another opportunity. President Putin is not known for caving in to international pressure, and Russia's sanctions towards North Korea can undoubtedly serve as a leverage towards Western sanctions against Moscow.
Indeed, the "winds of change" could already be sensed among European states, which were eventually voiced on August 29, when EU Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, called for improving relations with Russia and that he views "no European security for the future centuries without Russia".
Of course, Russia's long-term interests lie in regional stability - something which Moscow has invested in heavily. In April 2014, Russia's Parliament agreed to write off $10 billion of Pyongyang's Soviet era debt, eyeing a mega gas pipeline project to South Korea which will pass through North Korea.
Strategically, Russia maintains its Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok and the last thing it wants is tensions near its territory.
One, however, cannot neglect the short-term benefits Russia, as perhaps the only country who is watched favourably by Pyongyang, enjoys and which can prove detrimental in Asia's grand chessboard.