Russia to attack Ukraine on Feb 16? 15 things we know so far
Is it time to panic yet? Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? What will the consequences of a modern-day war in Europe be?
No one knows when these questions will be answered and if the answer is going to be a good one or a bad one. But, we know for sure, is that Russia has become a headache, just like this meme by Ukraine describes.
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) December 7, 2021
There’s a lot of concerning activity happening on the Ukraine and Russia border. Concerns are that a war is imminent. But nothing is certain, and the world is watching Russia, Ukraine and the West with bated breath for their subsequent moves.
Here’s a 15-point breakdown on the possible crisis in making:
1. There is a massive Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine. Russia is within striking range of Ukraine and it seems Vladimir Putin is ready for a war. More than 1 lakh Russian troops are stationed on the border with the former Soviet Union country.
2. US intelligence reports state that Russia has moved long-range artillery, rocket launchers, troops, all in attack positions. Satellite images from before had not shown the Russian troops in attack positions; however, now they do. The report claims Russia has 80% of forces needed to launch an invasion.
— Michael Sheldon (@Michael1Sheldon) February 14, 2022
3. US White House on Monday, February 14, said that based on its intelligence report, Russia can attack Ukraine any time now, including within this week.
4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an address to the nation on Monday had said, “We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack.” He designated this day as a ‘Day of Unity’. However, Zelenskyy soon clarified his comment saying that he was only referring to a date reported by the media.
5. Russia responded to the US intelligence report about the possible attack, called it ‘Western hysteria’ and denied any such allegations of an invasion.
Our Western colleagues think we have short memory. No, we don’t. We saw this trick before many times. Only naive or biased observers can trust ongoing baseless scaremongering. You will not deceive anyone this time #UkraineCrisis #Ukraine https://t.co/TNbe9xpjIz pic.twitter.com/3UBEPf6tLP
— Dmitry Polyanskiy (@Dpol_un) February 14, 2022
6. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that he’s urging President Putin to continue the route of diplomacy to resolve issues. Western media is calling it a ‘sliver of hope’.
7. A Wall Street Journal report stated that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war against Ukraine, deploying cyber attack methods.
8. The US has pledged $1 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine to help support its economic reform agenda and engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amid the Russia tension. Moreover, the Biden administration has said that it will defend every inch of Ukraine from Russian invasion, but will keep the diplomatic channels open with Moscow to resolve the crisis. Recently, US President Joe Biden even spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin for an hour and warned of severe consequences if he decided to launch an invasion of Ukraine.
US Secy of State Antony Blinken: We're working closely with allies to mobilize robust international support for Ukraine, including a US-backed sovereign loan guarantee of up to $1 billion to support key reforms. It'll bolster Ukraine’s ability to deliver prosperity for its people pic.twitter.com/pDi68tNSxq
— ANI (@ANI) February 15, 2022
9. The US has temporarily moved its Kyiv embassy into western Ukraine amid rising tensions with Russia. On the other hand, the US also asked all its citizens residing in Ukraine to immediately leave the country. It has also asked US citizens to avoid travelling to Moldova and Belarus due to increased risks of Russian military action.
Ukraine: U.S. citizens in Ukraine should depart immediately. The Embassy has opened a Welcome Center in Poland near two border crossing points to provide assistance to U.S. citizens entering from Ukraine. More info: https://t.co/6DnYAv9ZJO pic.twitter.com/SkvB27QtZN
— Travel - State Dept (@TravelGov) February 15, 2022
10. The US further slammed China for offering its ‘tacit support’ to Moscow in the Ukraine crisis.
11. India has also asked its citizens, especially those whose stay is unessential like students, to leave Ukraine temporarily, till the situation stabilises.
Embassy of India in Kyiv asks Indians, particularly students whose stay is not essential, to leave Ukraine temporarily in view of uncertainties of the current situation pic.twitter.com/U15EoGu89g
— ANI (@ANI) February 15, 2022
12. Reuters reported that the World Bank has temporarily suspended its staff missions in Ukraine and is assessing the situation.
13. NATO countries are busy holding talks with all stakeholders to calm the waters. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Ukraine on Monday and is visiting Moscow too to attempt to prevent a war. The US, NATO and allies are also sending Ukraine military support.
Auf dem Weg in die #Ukraine. Heute in Kiew und morgen in Moskau werde ich unsere Gespräche zur weiterhin sehr ernsten Lage an der Grenze der Ukraine fortführen. In Kiew ist mir wichtig, der Ukraine unsere fortdauernde Solidarität und Unterstützung auszudrücken. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/OjpKU4g490
— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 14, 2022
14. Canada has pledged lethal weapons and ammunition to Ukraine to support its defence from Russia. Japan warned of strict sanctions against the country if it invaded Ukraine.
Today, we announced additional financial assistance for Ukraine – as well as military equipment and ammunition to help Ukraine defend itself, and to deter further Russian aggression. The bottom line: Canada’s support for Ukraine remains steadfast. https://t.co/GmpEwwTlz2
— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) February 15, 2022
15. Meanwhile, Asian share market took a tumble on Monday, February 14, 2022, due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Oil hit a 7-year high on Monday while gold prices hit an 8-month high.
CRASH COURSE ON WHAT THE CRISIS IS ALL ABOUT
Ukraine was once a part of Soviet Russia, but now it is a sovereign country, stuck between Russia, Belarus and the rest of the European countries. It has long been a land stuck between the power tussle of Russia and the West. Ukraine and Russia tensions go as far back as 2008.
Ukraine, more than once, has voiced its support for joining NATO. However, time and again, Russia has expressed concerns over Ukraine joining the NATO forces.
In 2014, Russia pulled an unexpected move and annexed a part of Ukraine – Crimea, and at the same time, part of Eastern Ukraine came to be controlled by pro-Russian separatists, believed to be backed by Russia.
Fast forward to 2021, the world took notice of the massive Russian military build-up along the border with Ukraine and also in Belarus with its Ukraine border. This sparked concerns about an imminent invasion.
Russian President Putin has given an ultimatum, which if not met, will be seen as a Western provocation, enough to launch an attack on Ukraine.
Putin wants legal backing that says that Ukraine along with other former Soviet Union countries will never be part of NATO. He also wants assurance from NATO countries that they will remove all military establishments from former Soviet countries. In other words, Putin wants to redraw the Soviet Union boundaries, and order NATO to keep its military off those lines. Of course, not all former Soviet countries are on the same page as Putin.
No one knows what Vladimir Putin’s strategy is. But the West is against any sort of appeasement politics to get Putin to back down.