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What arrests of Saudi royals and growing ties between the Crown Prince and Trump reveal

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Seema Guha
Seema GuhaNov 07, 2017 | 12:27

What arrests of Saudi royals and growing ties between the Crown Prince and Trump reveal

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is fast consolidating his grip on power in the oil-rich kingdom. The anti-corruption crackdown over the weekend in Riyadh is the fig leaf used to strike at potential challengers to the 32-year-old favourite son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud. Never before has the ruling house of Saud witnessed this kind of upheaval.

Opinion in the kingdom is divided. The older members of the royal family are shocked at the crackdown in a country where such sweeping purges are rarely witnessed. In a society seeped in tradition where clan loyalty is upper most, the arrests could evoke deep resentment and friction within the royal family. Whether the kingdom will be wracked by internal dissention or be able to smoothen the deep internal divide is uncertain.

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Big names are involved in the crackdown. These include the commander of the powerful National Guards, Prince Miteb, son of late king Abdullah. The National Guards have long owed allegiance to the late king and his son. Outspoken billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, eleven princes, four ministers as well as high-ranking officials have been detained. In total, 49 arrests were made. In typical Saudi style those arrested were confined in a luxury hotel.

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Private planes were grounded to ensure that no one can fly out of the kingdom. Quick on the heels of this unprecedented move has come the news of a helicopter crash on Sunday night in which Prince Mansour bin Muqrin Al Saud, deputy governor of Asir province, together with several officers were killed. The dead prince was the son of former Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, and was appointed deputy governor of Asir province, near the Yemen border earlier this year. The rumour mills are working overtime in the bazars and mosques of the Saudi kingdom with people wondering if the crash was a deliberate attempt to get rid of another powerful opponent.

On the face of it, it appears that the Crown Prince is becoming an all powerful figure with no one to challenge his authority for now. He is already the kingdom's defence minister and is leading major economic reforms.

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He is overseeing the ambitious Vision 2030 programme aimed at diversifying the economy to save it from its reliance on oil. He has plans to list a percentage of the state-run oil giant Aramco and President Donald Trump is urging him to do it in New York. He is now also chairman of the anti-corruption committee, shouldering vast powers to trace funds and assets and prevent their transfer or liquidation on behalf of individuals or entities. He had already sent out the warning that no one, not even members of the royal household, will be spared. Considering that Saudi Arabia's business heads or its government had never been transparent, this sudden change has caught powerful princelings unawares.

The Crown Prince is popular among the youth, who see him as an agent of change, ready to take the kingdom out of its austere Wahabi moorings. It was largely thanks to his efforts that women are now allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia, where the powerful clergy had so long held sway.

Religious police, who exerted enormous authority in the kingdom are no longer ruling the streets. How the powerful religious establishment of the country, long used to ensuring that their austere style of Islam is strictly enforced take all this change is not yet apparent. He is also for allowing entertainment in a kingdom, where the clergy had long frowned at loud music, cinema and entertainment. At the same time he has openly said that he wants Saudi Arabia to be a moderate Islamic state. How the internal power play in the royal household, long used to consensus building among various factions of the family, will pan out is uncertain. It is difficult to predict if Prince Mohammed bin Salman's attempts at consolidating power at breakneck speed will be successful.

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The Prince also had ambitious plans to project Saudi power in the region. He is likely to intensify the rivalry between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, and this is likely to make this volatile region even more vulnerable to instability. Saudi Arabia with its enormous oil wealth and its special place in the Islamic world as the custodian of the Holy cities of Mecca and Medina, regards itself as the leader of the Muslim world. It is bitterly opposed to Shia Iran and is determined to oust Tehran's power projection in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Iran as an ancient civilisation believes it is the leader of the Muslim world. It looks down on Saudi Arabia which cannot boast of a 5,000-year-old culture and sees itself as a major regional power.

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The rivalry between these two power centres is already manifested on the ground in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. The Crown Prince had led Saudi efforts in Yemen. The indiscriminate bombing has led to civilian deaths (10,000 according to one estimate). That has not deterred the Saudis. The proxy war in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels continues.

Saudi Arabia at the moment is ready to flex its muscles. With US President Donald Trump, ready to back Riyadi to contain Iran, the Prince is likely to go all out against Iran. Saudi Arabia is pivotal to Trump's plans for the region. This was apparent when the US President chose Riyadh to be the first country he visited. The visit was a grand success with Trump and he his rapport with King Salman was evident.

Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and the Crown Prince also get along extremely well. What is more, Saudi Arabia is willing to give massive business to US companies, as it arms itself to become the foremost power in the region. During Trump's visit to the kingdom, a deal worth $110 billion was announced for the purchase of American tanks, helicopters, ships, missile defence radar systems and intelligence gathering aircraft.

Jared Kushner have played a key role in clinching the deal in time for Trump's visit. This is said to be part of a larger 10-year agreement worth $350 billion. The Saudi's are considering investing as much as $40 billion in infrastructure projects in the US. For Trump, this is a win-win situation. He gets business for American companies, and also furthers US strategic interests by helping to checkmate Iran's influence in the region.

US, Saudi Arabia and Israel's strategic interests converge. All three wish to contain Iranian influence in the region. The fact that the Hezbollah is backed by Tehran makes Israel an important member of this loose alliance. Saudi Arabia is already calling out Iran. On Saturday, Houti rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile into Saudi Arabian territory, in fact close to the international airport. Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran for providing the Houti rebels with the missile and dubbed it an "act of war".

Last updated: November 08, 2017 | 12:48
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