Sheila Dikshit, Raj Babbar is not about Congress winning in UP

It may sound ironic but true.

The Congress strategy behind projection of Shiela Dikshit as the chief ministerial face and Raj Babbar as the UP Congress chief may not take the party to any historic victory.

Yet it is likely to keep the country’s oldest political party, that ruled India’s most populous state for four long decades before being voted out 27 years ago, in a win-win situation.

Evidently, just about seven months ahead of the state elections here, political strategist Prashant Kishor has succeeded in convincing the Congress high command to play what is seen as a masterstroke to bring a written-off party back on the playing field.

Congress party was not counted among the potential players for the 2017 UP electoral battle until Ghulam Nabi Azad, the newly appointed in-charge for the state, made the announcement earlier this week.

After months of speculation about Priyanka Gandhi Vadra being projected as the party’s CM face, the announcement came with a huge element of surprise that has visibly rattled all those who were considering the Congress party to be completely down and out.

Also read: Can ‘lightweight’ Raj Babbar turn Congress’ fortunes in UP?

First came Raj Babbar, who took both insiders as well as the opposition by surprise.

Then followed Shiela Dikshit , whom everyone seemed to be writing off because of her age.

If Babbar had the gift of the gab – thanks to his Bollywood background, Shiela Dikshit enjoyed the credibility of a three-time successful Delhi chief minister.

Both have one thing in common – not being part of the multiple lobbies that plague the party here.

Sure enough, no one in the Congress party hierarchy actually has any notion of riding to power in UP, where the party was reduced to a paltry 29 seats in 2012.

What it is apparently looking for is a revival of the party by taking the tally to a three-digit figure, which itself was bound to be a tough call.

Also read: How Priyanka Gandhi persuaded Sheila Dikshit to be Congress' UP face

If insiders are to be believed, the party’s top rung will be satisfied with doubling of the 2012 tally.

After all, that could bring the Congress to the position of an important “king-maker” in the event of a hung Assembly at the end of the 2017 poll.

Shiela Dikshit’s name was understood to be the second preferred choice of Kishor, who gave top preference to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

But after much debate on different fora, realisation dawned on the strategist that Priyanka could not be played for the gamble that was being tried in UP.

There was need for a suitable cover and that was where Shiela Dikshit was considered the best option.

A three-time successful Delhi chief minister, who could beat two anti-incumbencies to ride on to victory after victory, has nothing to lose in the same way as the party stands nothing to lose at this juncture. 

By accepting the task entrusted to her by the Gandhi family, she has only earned greater confidence of her political mentors.

Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka are not hoping that she would do some wonder to install the party in power in UP.

Despite being out of power in UP since 1989, infighting has remained its major impediment. 

But Shiela, who despite having made her political debut from Kannauj as the daughter-in-law of the then prominent Congress leader Uma Shankar Dikshit, carries no baggage here.

She is also clearly above the petty politicking of local UP leaders, who would not dare to bypass or circumvent her authority. That is where her age – 78 – will prove to be an asset rather than any liability that the opposition seemed to be seeing in her.

Her other major asset is her Brahmin background, which surely continues to have meaningful impact in UP’s deeply caste-ridden society.

Also read: 5 reasons Sheila Dikshit won't click as Congress' CM candidate for UP

Even though she was born a Punjabi Khatri and is related to Yashpal Kapoor, the one-time all powerful aide to Indira Gandhi, her marriage to Uma Shankar Dikshit’s IAS officer son, Vinod Chandra Dikshit, gave her the status of a “bahu” of an influential UP Brahmin family. 

Political analysts felt it was time for the Congress to tap the Brahmin vote, a section of which was seen as disillusioned with the BJP or BSP, to which it has tilted in past two elections.

The Sheila card does have potential to win that section of Brahmins towards the Congress and make material difference to its poll destiny. 

It could have a ripple effect in also attracting that section of Muslims which had begun to question what they termed as increasing “lip service” by Samajwadi Party supremo  Mulayam Singh Yadav.

What had deepened this impression was the complete blackout that Muslims received from Mulayam when he handpicked half a dozen Hindus, including a political non-entity Khatri builder, as also the wily Thakur Amar Singh, for nomination the Rajya Sabha, but not a single Muslim.

Even certain other actions of Mulayam seemed to blatantly convey that he was taking Muslims for granted.

Above everything, what Sheila Dikshit was expected to be doing is to act as a buffer for Priyanka, who would now be able to play a bigger role in the campaign without having to own any responsibility.

If the party fails to do well, Sheila Dikshit would be there to take all the blame together with Raj Babbar, the new UPCC president.

However, if the electoral performance was reasonable enough to put the party on some kind of a revival path, the credit could conveniently be passed on to the Priyanka factor.

The party’s greatest worry in letting Priyanka take the lead role in the election campaign was the possibility of her failure.

After all, even her charismatic persona could not ensure the party’s victory in all Assembly segments of her mother’s Rae Bareli or her brother’s Amethi parliamentary constituencies – to which  she has been limiting herself in past elections.

And even though these were the only two seats won by the Congress in the 2014 Modi wave, the party’s vote share had dropped substantially despite Priyanka’s all-out concentration there.