12 years in office for Shivraj Singh Chouhan: What it means for Modi and Amit Shah
With BJP president Amit Shah making it clear that the next Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections in 2018 would be contested under Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership, the incumbent CM is likely to complete 13 years in office before seeking a fresh mandate.
In another six months, he would become the second longest-serving BJP CM in India, breaking PM Narendra Modi’s record as Gujarat CM. CM Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh is at present the longest-serving BJP CM in the country.
But how has brand Chouhan fared in the past one year? While Chouhan has received a clear mandate from his party that he would be its face in the next elections, his 12th year in office did give him a few hiccups. But first, his achievements.
Chouhan has very deftly kept challengers at bay within the party. Be it Kailash Vijayvargiya, who is now a general secretary and considered close to Amit Shah, or state vice-president Prabhat Jha, both seen at one point in time as probable replacements for Chouhan, the CM has now ensured that there is no one within the party to challenge him.
There is sporadic sniping from leaders like Babulal Gaur or Sartaj Singh, both of whom were dropped from the cabinet last year, but their attempts are at best to keep themselves relevant in politics and are not aimed at the top job. There are ministers within the cabinet who are not totally "Chouhan's men" and have a mind of their own - surprising for a CM who has held office for 12 years - but they are aware that they are in no position to challenge him, and their remaining in the cabinet is a privilege he has extended, at least for the time being.
There is also no apparent anti-incumbency he faces in the state. In 2003, it was fairly evident that people wanted to vote the Congress out. It was reflected in the 173 seats in a House of 230 the BJP won, but a year before the polls, there seems to be no such wave. Agreed, there is no dearth of issues which the Congress can capitalise on, but they aren’t boiling over.
On the personal front, Chouhan has had his name cleared in the CBI inquiry on allegations of tampering of the hard disk seized from a prime accused in the Vyapam scam. The Vyapam charges were the biggest political attacks he faced, even more acute than the dumper scam allegations during his first term. With the allegations a thing of the past, Chouhan can breathe easy, at least on that front.
From the Opposition’s point of view, the Congress has still not been able to finalise who would lead the charge against Chouhan. For months now, there has been speculation that it could be Jyotiraditya Scindia or Kamal Nath, but it has remained within the realm of speculation, often getting caught up with the decision on the elevation of Rahul Gandhi as party president.
On the challenges that have emerged this year, the BJP has for the first time lost two Assembly by-elections, at Ater and Chitrakoot, on the trot. Both segments were held by the Congress earlier too, but conventional political logic has it that by-elections are won by the ruling party. There are two more to go, at Kolaras and Mungaoli, again both seats held by Congress MLAs who passed away. It will not be an easy fight and Chouhan’s detractors within the organisation are already working against him - as a defeat even at one of the two seats would put the CM on the defensive vis-a-vis the party organisation, and may even lead to sacking of the state BJP president Nandkumar Singh Chouhan.
Chouhan continues to spend more time in political rallies and meeting with administrative work adversely affected. Transfers and postings in MP take unusually long with the CM unable to devote time for deciding on these administrative issues. Whenever he senses that the bureaucracy has started taking him for granted, there are a series of meetings with some suspensions being announced. For a few days, the bureaucracy seems on a tight leash, but then it is business as usual.
Cracks also seem to be developing in the citadel - in the form of farmers - who as a constituency have stood rock solid with him over the years. The police firing on farmers in June in Mandsaur rattled Chouhan who announced hefty compensations for those killed. He even held a fast that apparently did not go down too well with the party leadership.
The victory for the Congress at Chitrakoot - a largely rural constituency by a decisive margin seems to suggest that the Congress seemed to be the farmers' choice there. The much-bandied Bhavantar or price difference scheme for agriculture produce was not welcomed as enthusiastically as he expected.
With coal supplies at power plants being affected, power supply has been hit across the state, adding to the problem. Crimes against women are at an all time high, with MP recording the highest number of rape cases.
Eight districts from the state have been included among the 115 most-backward districts of the country, as per a study.
A case pertaining to reservation in promotion for SC and ST state government employees is pending at the Supreme Court for the last year and half. The outcome would be politically important for Chouhan as it would showcase his stand on the issue.
SCs and STs constitute 15 per cent and 21 per cent of the state’s population and the BJP won majority of the SC and ST reserved seats in 2013 elections.
The condition of roads across the state, one of the planks among the BSP - Bijli, Sadak and Pani - that seemed to have propelled the BJP to power in 2003, has re-emerged as an issue. The CM may go to the US and talk about roads in MP being better than the US, but the truth is very different.
Chouhan seldom travels by road, usually opting for the chopper to travel within the state. So, a first-hand feedback from him on roads is not possible. He has to rely on bureaucrats and ministers who may not say what he doesn’t want to hear. His statement in the US on roads, especially when he was apologetic and insisted that he would praise MP as he had gone there to market his state, also hit at his core strength - that of being earnest.
While the challenges are many, the real challenge for Chouhan on the political front will unveil itself if he emerges victorious after the 2018 Assembly elections and the BJP wins the 2019 parliamentary polls too.
The BJP’s central leadership would then find it tough to avoid thinking of major changes across state leaderships.