Why AIADMK is disintegrating slowly but steadily
Is it the end of the road for the Mannargudi clan in the AIADMK? This question crops up, in light of the cynical number game being played out even after the majority group, comprising those owing their loyalty — at the moment — to Tamil Nadu chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswamy (EPS) and deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam (OPS), announced the expulsion of party general secretary VK Sasikala on September 12 and anointed her predecessor and their revered Amma, J Jayalalithaa, as the “eternal” general secretary (GS).
Together, the EPS-OPS group claims the support of 115 MLAs in the 234 seat legislative assembly, in which Jayalalithaa’s seat is vacant, indicating they are short by two of the majority.
A ginger group steered by TTV Dhinakaran, who was appointed deputy GS by Sasikala after she was duly elected GS and before she went to jail in Bengaluru, claims the support of 19 MLAs as well as “sleeper cells” in the ruling group with striking capabilities to dislodge the ministry. He is holding out, not playing by the book and switching to mind games much like the majority ruling group, aided and abetted by advisers.
The shrewd and pragmatic Dhinakaran is apprehensive that if he pushes hard several of those who swear their loyalty to him will switch sides rather than engineer the collapse of the AIADMK ministry, which has completed just 15 months of its 60-month tenure.
This is also why a pro-Dhinakaran MLA as well as the DMK has approached the Madras High Court to stall any floor test being called for by legislative assembly speaker P Dhanapal in haste.
The court has set September 20 as the earliest the speaker can summon the MLAs to decide whether or not the EPS government has a majority. Meanwhile, it’s advantage the ruling EPS-OPS grouping as the speaker on Monday disqualified 18 MLAs supporting Dhinakaran.
Dhanpals’s decision brings down the magic number in the 234-member House to 110 as against 117 before the disqualification, in the case of a floor test.
The ruling EPS-OPS grouping will face a major political challenge when the by-elections for the seats vacated due to disqualification are held by the Election Commission. But they may not be able to get the coveted “two leaves” poll symbol which they are eager to get before the local bodies elections, scheduled for before the end of 2017.
The ruling grouping can get the all important poll symbol only if the EC, after perusing the petitions, claims and counter-claims, declares theirs, minus Sasikala, as the real AIADMK.
“The EPS-OPS grouping has not only lost their ground steadily but also their newfound credibility due to their obsession and willingness to do anything to stay in power. Mercy petitions to PM Narendra Modi and the BJP are critical to their confidence, unless Dhinakaran steals the march with more open defections and loss of public support,” says professor Ramu Manivannan, head, department of politics and public administration, University of Madras.
It’s a do-or-die battle for the Sasikala faction. For Sasikala and her nephew, there’s nothing to lose and everything to gain if Dhinakaran manages to dislodge the EPS government.
Pulling down the EPS-led government is not a priority but a necessity for the political survival and future of Sasikala and her family. They need to demonstrate and prove their political power by capturing the party and this can only happen if they dislodge the present government.
If they fail, the influence of their Mannargudi clan will fade out just as the collective leadership gamble of the EPS-OPS grouping.
Manivannan says, “The AIADMK is disintegrating slowly but steadily. It will further disintegrate and collapse if its sole supporting ventilator — power in the state — is removed.”
For the time being, however, it’s advantage the EPS-OPS faction.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)