How long Congress can survive banking on proxy powers
Gandhis are anything but free from fear.
Absolute power has been eluding the Gandhis since 1989 when Rajiv Gandhi was last seen as Prime Minister. Thereafter the family’s only route to power has been through proxies. If not king, playing kingmaker has become the perfect political module for simulated power.
In the meantime, PM Narendra Modi’s ‘sankalp’ of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ has been shaping up steadily since 2014, which is reflected through the shrinkage of the Congress’s geographic territory and vote base, paucity of political funds, diminishing authority, and fading media space allocated to it.
However, ‘mindspace’ is still hugely retained by the party, as voters do avidly track if the GOP can ever inch back to its original eminence in national politics.
Self-preservation
In decimating dynasty, even as history books are being rewritten and institutions renamed, the finale now culminates in a museum of Prime Ministers being built within the 25-acre Teen Murti Estate which the Congress is aware is an effort to erode Jawaharlal Nehru’s legacy.
The symbolism of this decision is a big one in displacing the historic domination of one family that obviated the role of equally tall leaders in their contribution to nation-building. Against the backdrop comes the voluntary downsizing of the Congress’ political ambitions, with the GOP’s climb down by ceding space for prime ministership nine months before the race for 2019 has even begun.
Sonia Gandhi has by now perfected the art of making a virtue of necessity, as she did in 2004, after her ‘inner voice’ urged her to relinquish the post of PM — a sacrifice that helped ‘retain power without acquiring the burden of office’.
In being ‘willing to accept any non-RSS-backed PM, or any candidate from an Opposition party, the larger goal is first to preserve the party from Modi’s intimidating reign which has eroded the Gandhis’ political and personal fortunes. And by allowing regional aspirants to take the lead to form a collective shield to fight Modi, the united bloc acts as the perfect armour for the Congress.
While the process of Opposition unification is underway, the Gandhis cannot afford to play spoiler by prematurely staking claim on consensual acceptance of Rahul Gandhi as the PM face, because that would be a deal-breaker.
Their stance is an unknowing adaptation of embracing ‘courage and grace under pressure’, as I borrow from Aung San Suu Kyi’s famous ‘Freedom from Fear’ speech. Except, unlike Suu Kyi’s expressions of fortitude, the Gandhis are anything but free from fear. And displaying grace and courage comes more out of political necessity. The strategic lateral move is based on internal calculations of the Congress, that if the party succeeds in doubling its 2014 tally and comes closer to winning 100 seats, Rahul becomes the lead claimant to head the next government in the event of a fractured mandate.
Second-fiddle
There are three nadirs the Congress has now touched in its struggle for relevance.
First, the GOP repeatedly relegates itself to subservience to regional parties in every electorally significant state. This was seen recently in Karnataka where despite having won 78 seats, it decided to play junior partner to JD(S) with 37 seats.
Then again, in UP that sends 80 members to Parliament, it is being pushed into a political corner by the BSP and the SP by being forced to accept three to eight seats to contest in 2019. And then again in Bihar, where the Congress will humble down to one of its most venal partners, Lalu Prasad’s RJD.
So, in UP, WB, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, the five states which contribute to around 250 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress is expected to put up a fight in only around 50 to 70 seats from these states, as alliance partners RJD, SP, BSP, Left, DMK and NCP dictate seat-sharing formulae because of their regional dominance.
As the gap for the leadership of the ‘anti-Modi’ space closes in, the forerunner who has her base intact, and seems most battle-ready, is Mamata Banerjee. But should Rahul win back Rajasthan or MP, he could be back in the reckoning for leadership of the so-called ‘mahagathbandan’.
Untested entity
Opposition calculus is based on achieving optimal Muslim votes, as the community has a decisive presence in roughly 102 Lok Sabha constituencies that can tilt the incremental vote which both BJP and ‘secular’ parties seek.
Muslims are unlikely to vote for BJP in any significant way, including their women, despite the party being a crusader for gender equality by pushing for triple talaq.
With West Bengal having a 28 per cent Muslim population which is Mamata’s core base, she seems powered to get most of the 42 Lok Sabha seats and retain her lead as contender for PM amongst the united Opposition.
The concerted attempt by the Trinamool Congress and ‘The Rest’ is to drive the liberal and urban Hindus away from Modi’s ‘rabid Hindutva’ through tried-and-tested tactics of ‘saam-daam-dand’ (persuade-tempt-threaten).
And if all three fail, use the ultimate ‘Brahmashtra’ of incite, as Mamata threatens “bloodbaths and civil wars” over the NRC issue in Assam.
As an untested entity, Mamata lacks a pan-Indian appeal to position herself as the ultimate ‘challenger brand’ to woo the nation away from Modi.
Though the real face of an Opposition PM will only unveil post-polls, should the need arise, as of now the popularity gap between the PM and his potential contenders remains far too wide to bridge.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)