Why Pakistan wouldn't dare to drop nuclear bomb on India

Play out any scenario you like, the results will be disastrous for India but absolutely catastrophic for Pakistan.

 |  6-minute read |   22-09-2016
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From time to time, some Pakistani official or the other keeps threatening India with its nuclear arsenal. India is told that Pakistan is a nuclear power and that they won’t hesitate to drop one on their arch enemy.

Pakistan is somehow under the delusion that India will keep quiet after taking a hit due to world opinion and global pressure. That, and we are actually a very peaceful and cowardly country.

Where they have got this delusion from nobody really knows. We have thrashed them already in enough wars. But then they are also delusional over Kashmir and have been trying to capture it for close to 70 years with disastrous consequences.

They lost East Pakistan in the past and have totally destabilised their own country in the present with their foolhardiness.

First, the short answer to what will happen if Pakistan drops a nuke on India. India will retaliate with at least 5-10 nukes dropped at strategic nuclear and military sites in Pakistan to neutralise it. India will then declare an all-out war with Pakistan.

The largest free standing army in the world, one of the most powerful air forces, a navy that annihilated the Pakistani Navy in 1971, the entire nuclear arsenal and missiles... they will all be activated. You can be very sure of that!

India is currently a very angry nation and has been taking Pakistani wars, conflicts and terror attacks for decades. We are a cornered tiger and we are going to pounce sooner or later.

We are a strong believer of the Mahabharata philosophy as espoused by Krishna: Explore each and every single avenue of peace - but when it all fails, go for all-out war.

Play out any scenario you like, the results will be disastrous for India but absolutely catastrophic for Pakistan.

Of course we know it is not as simple as that. There is no nuclear button sitting on the table of the Pakistan government, pressing which will lead to nuking New Delhi in half-an-hour. If Pakistan wants to conduct a nuclear strike, it will have to make a comprehensive real-time nuclear strategy.

It knows one nuke will not be enough; it may have to arm 20-30. It will have to decide whether to attack by missiles, fighter planes or via the navy and how many by each. It will have to spread out its nukes all across the country at strategic places and put all its forces on alert.

Can Pakistan really do that in secret? The whole world will know months in advance and India would do the same. We would move at lightning speed and deploy all our nukes and put all our forces on high alert. That would lead to either a stalemate or a MAD (mutually assured destruction) scenario.

Again, Pakistan would either be unable to fire first or be destroyed at the end of a nuclear war if it did.

uri1-embed_092216121741.jpg India is currently a very angry nation and has been taking Pakistani wars, conflicts and terror attacks for decades. (Photo credit: PTI) 

Then what of Big Brother America which is stationed in Pakistan? They say that the three As control Pakistan (Allah and Army being the other). But currently, the superpower A has turned Pakistan into a puppet state.

After 9/11, America has been calling the shots and Pakistan can only watch powerlessly, like the way Osama bin Laden was snatched from right under the headquarters of the Pakistani Army.

Pakistan is swarming with CIA agents and Special Forces’ operatives. That is because America is paranoid that if Pakistani nukes go rogue, one of them may invariably land on American soil. America wants Pak nukes to stay under lock and key not because they want to protect India, but because they want to protect themselves.

There are about 10,000 American troops stationed in Afghanistan along with 13,000 more under the leadership of NATO. Then there are the American drones which can come in and out of Pakistan and attack what they want at will.

Can Pakistan really launch nukes under the nose of the US? America is the most selfish country in the world and will go out of its way to ensure it doesn’t face a nuclear threat, no matter how remote.

Then what of the world community? This is not like World War-II where the world was desperate to end the threat of Adolf Hitler and his allies, and that’s why it looked the other way when Hiroshima and Nagasaki happened and in fact even cheered it.

If there’s an all-out war and Pakistan and North India get nuked, then southern China will face the threat of nuclear radiation. No matter how much China hates India, it too like America wants Pakistan’s nukes to stay under lock and key because of that.

Right now the world’s biggest threat is terrorism. That’s especially if terrorists get hold of a nuke. That may happen in a nuclear war because Pakistan won’t deploy one nuke, but dozens. What if one of them falls into the hands of a terrorist group? It’s not as far-fetched as it sounds.

In fact, when the world is at threat, don’t be surprised if America and China get together to de-nuke Pakistan. Our enemy’s nuclear dream will backfire and turn into a nuclear nightmare.

Pakistan is ravaged by terrorists. In the War of North Waziristan, 30,000 terrorists have already died along with 7,000 Pakistani soldiers and it rages on. Elsewhere in Pakistan, 50-60,000 civilians have died in terror attacks. There are independence movements in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir.

In such a scenario, taking out 20-30 nukes has a high probability of one of them going rogue. The Israelis have the best intelligence in the world and if they even suspected Pakistan planning a nuclear attack, they would immediately inform India and America.

In fact, the Pakistani nuclear bluff has already been called. The country became an official nuclear power in 1998 and its worst days began after that. It was humiliated in the Kargil War in 1999 and turned into a puppet state after 9/11.

And today it is totally destabilised and faces break-up. All that after it became a nuclear power!

The highly destructive and virulently anti-Indian Prime Minister Zulfikar Bhutto once famously declared that Pakistan would eat grass but build the bomb.

Well how’s that for a prophecy. With the way their economy is going, they will be forced to hug all their nukes and eat nothing but grass!

Dear Pakistan,

Drop a nuke on India.

We will definitely suffer, but you will cease to exist!

Also read: How to survive a nuclear attack

Also read: Uri attack: How Modi should damage Pakistan (without going to war)

 

Writer

Sunil Rajguru Sunil Rajguru @sunilrajguru

The author is a Bengaluru-based journalist and blogger.

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