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How Uttar Pradesh is setting the agenda for 2019 General Elections

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DailyBiteFeb 14, 2019 | 17:01

How Uttar Pradesh is setting the agenda for 2019 General Elections

When political copies are written centering on Uttar Pradesh, the region is often described as 'the most populous state in India' or 'the most populous country subdivision in the world'.

Many copies then mention that Uttar Pradesh is important electorally because it sends the highest number of MPs to Parliament, which again is based on proportional representation, so this factor too basically is an attribute of UP’s population — which stands at over 23 crore.

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Uttar Pradesh is driving the country's politics — both by its numbers and its drama. (Source: PTI)

But in the run-up to the 2019 General Election, it is Uttar Pradesh which seems to be setting the agenda, not just because of the number of voters and representatives its elects, but also because of the action that has been unfolding.

There is a 'Gathbandhan' and there is 'bua-bhatija' and now, 'bhai-behan ka bandhan' too. There is also a simmering 'baap-bete ki ladai', with the beta batting for a larger gathbandhan to take on Narendra Modi and the baap rooting for the same Modi to return to power triumphant.

Uttar Pradesh is ensuring a power-packed show, replete with all the entertainment you would wish for — and all the intrigue you would want to avoid.

The poll bugle

The poll bugle was literally sounded from Uttar Pradesh on January 12, with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) announcing a seat-sharing deal that left out the Congress. While BSP supremo Mayawati and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav did leave two seats for the Congress, they refused to enter any strategic alliance with the party in a huge blow to it.

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Blooming together: Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav literally announced the 2019 election war to be open. (Source: PTI)

The leaving out of the Congress was read by experts as a sign of the political irrelevance of the party in UP.

The entry of Congress’ Brahmastra

But, just when everybody had begun to think that the Congress stood no chance of a revival in the state, not just in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but also in the near future, the Congress announced that Priyanka Gandhi was joining the party formally as general secretary in-charge of eastern UP — which has 43 Lok Sabha constituencies.

This suddenly changed all political calculations in a big way.

Given that many regional political leaders have expressed apprehension over accepting Rahul Gandhi as their joint prime ministerial candidate. Priyanka’s entry could help Congress present a face which is far more acceptable to leaders of the other parties — should such a scenario emerge.

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Royalty of many kinds: Priyanka Gandhi and Jyotiraditya Scindia are the Congress' faces in Uttar Pradesh. (Source: PTI)

Also, Priyanka’s entering the poll fray is likely to strengthen the Congress in UP in the long run.

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On February 11, when the Congress organised a road show in Lucknow to mark Priyanka’s formal taking of charge, Rahul Gandhi said, “I have asked Priyanka ji to ensure Congress wins the 2022 Assembly election.”

The MP royal in UP

The Congress has brought in Jyotiraditya Scindia to take charge of the party campaign in western UP.

Scindia has entered UP with the advantage of years of groundwork and his own royal and political lineage, still a feudal glue that can attract voters in independent India.

But Scindia has, over the years, built upon his lineage through his groundwork — which helped the party win the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election.

Just why did the Congress choose to send Scindia to UP — and not let him stay in Madhya Pradesh to consolidate on the gains made in the state elections there? That is a question that remains to be answered. Could this be a way to end his successful streak and even clip his wings in the Congress?

That question would be answered as the drama in UP unfolds.

Mulayam’s Modi love

No one saw this one coming!

SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav’s announcement in Parliament, that he wants to see Modi return to power as Prime Minister, has not just left many shocked, but added some very interesting drama to this electoral Mahabharat.

Mulayam’s remarks, dismissed by his son Akhilesh Yadav, could end up harming the SP’s winning prospect in UP. The party is contesting 37 seats in the state. The sign of a family feud could harm the party — much like it did in the 2017 Assembly election when the family fight spilled out on the streets of Lucknow, with Akhilesh and Mulayam's camps clashing.

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I want to counter! Mulayam Singh Yadav's recent pro-Modi remarks have left son Akhilesh embarrassed. (Source: Reuters)

While the development is likely to harm the SP’s prospects, it is likely to help the BJP. There has been a growing chorus from the Opposition camp that Modi is a 'dictatorial leader' and doesn’t believe in taking everyone along.

But, Mulayam, whom the BJP blames for the killing of 16 kar sevaks in Ayodhya, and frequently mockingly accuses him of Muslim appeasement by calling him 'Maulana Mulayam', saying that Modi took everyone along blunts the Opposition charge against Modi right ahead of the election.    

With the election dates still to be announced, there is still time for parties to show their cards.

The road to Delhi definitely goes through UP — and no party is going to let its rival have a smooth ride on this road.

There is much more to come.

Watch this space. (Yes, it is still the largest electoral one in India).

Last updated: February 14, 2019 | 20:08
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