Why it's no victory for Congress in Uttarakhand Assembly floor test

The Congress has claimed victory of the Harish Rawat government in Uttarakhand soon after floor test was conducted on May 10. It claimed to get 33 of the 61 votes. The Congress may indeed finally emerge victorious when the results will be declared formally by the Supreme Court on May 11. This will be a huge embarrassment to the BJP which showed undue haste in imposing President's Rule in the state.

Rawat's victory was a foregone conclusion ever since the courts rejected the plea of nine rebel Congress MLAs who were disqualified by the Uttarakhand Assembly for voting against the government and getting aligned with the opposition BJP.

Congress claims victory in #Uttarakhand floor test, formal announcement by Supreme Court on Wednesday #ITVideohttps://t.co/PKMhvuaTl7

— India Today (@IndiaToday) May 10, 2016

Even if Rawat emerges victorious after the Supreme Court declares the results, it is doubtful whether his government will remain stable since it will have to depend heavily on the BSP MLAs and the independents, who will, no doubt, extract their pound of flesh for the favour. The state has already witnessed about two months of utter chaos and instability. It will have a roller-coaster ride till Assembly elections, scheduled for early 2017, are held.

Number crunch

Congress-ruled Uttarakhand government has been witnessing turmoil ever since nine of the party's 36 MLAs rebelled and joined the BJP on March 18. Their intention was to topple the Harish Rawat government.

In the 70-member Uttarakhand Assembly, chief minister Harish Rawat has a thin majority. While the Congress has 27 MLAs, the BJP 28, BSP two, independents three and one belongs to the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (P). The winning side needs 31 MLAs for a majority as the effective strength of the House is 61.

Nine Congress MLAs stand disqualified as per the orders of the Assembly speaker, which was validated by the Uttarakhand High Court and sealed by the Supreme Court.Just before the floor test, BSP supremo Mayawati announced that the two MLAs of her party would support the Congress. This tilted the balance in favour of Rawat. The government also heavily relied on independent MLAs for stability.

Background

On March 18, 27 BJP MLAs and nine rebel Congress MLAs arrived in Delhi in a bid to replace Harish Rawat as the chief minister. The nine Congress rebel MLAs included former chief minister Vijay Bahugana and former Cabinet minister Harak Singh Rawat, who was expelled on March 19.

Several developments have taken place, mostly in the courts - Uttarakhand High Court and the Supreme Court.

Uttarakhand governor KK Paul wrote to Rawat to prove majority in the Assembly before March 28. The chief minister, however, claimed he had "full majority".

On March 21, Uttarakhand state Congress expelled former CM Bahuguna's son Saket Bahuguna and party's general secretary Anil Gupta. The Congress believed that it was Saket who "master-minded" the revolt.

Assembly speaker Govind Singh Kunjwal said the "anti-defection law is in place and whoever is found guilty of violating it will have to be acted against".

Old grouse

When Harish Rawat was sworn-in as CM on February 1, 2014 - a year after the devastating floods in the state which put the blame squarely on Bahugana, and the party panicked after a poor show in four other states - the political situation seemed to stabalise but only for a while.

Distrust within the party soon began to resurface. The Bahuguna camp started feeling alienated. They felt exluded from Cabinet positions and key administrative roles. Bahuguna sniffed the opportunity and has since been hurting for a rebellion.

What next?

Curtains will not fall on this drama even after the announcement of results by the Supreme Court on May 11. Expect more court cases and political upheavals in the days and months to come. Rather than waiting for early 2017, the best option perhaps would have been to conduct early elections in the state.