Why BJP sees promise in Andhra with Venkaiah Naidu as vice president of India
Media experts were right in a very wrong way when they said the choice of Venkaiah Naidu as Vice President has been done with an eye on the BJP's plans in south India. First, it is erroneous to look at the south of the Vindhyas as one homogeneous unit that would get swayed by the choice of a person from one of the five states. After all, if a person from Haryana was chosen for the post, no one would have said, it will strengthen the BJP in all of north India.
Two, it has actually removed Venkaiah Naidu from the scene as he was seen by his detractors as an impediment to the growth prospects of the BJP, at least in his home state of Andhra Pradesh. In the last few months, Andhra is one state that Amit Shah, despite the party's alliance with the Telugu Desam, is looking at closely to win more seats in 2019. At present, it has two MPs from Andhra Pradesh.
The BJP has made a beginning by investing in setting up booth committees. But state leaders complain every time, they have advocated snapping of ties with the TDP, like in neighbouring Telangana, Venkaiah Naidu has shot down the idea. Many state BJP leaders privately admit the Venkaiah Naidu-Chandrababu Naidu "dosti" will never let the BJP grow in Andhra.
Not that Venkaiah Naidu is completely wrong. The BJP in Andhra lacks a mass pan-Andhra leader who can take on TDP's Chandrababu Naidu and the YSR Congress' Jaganmohan Reddy. Venkaiah realises that weakness and has always maintained that the alliance with the TDP gives the BJP a presence in the state government that can then be further used to grow in the state. Besides the presence of a powerful regional ally lends respectability to the NDA template.
Except that it does not work that way. Chandrababu is too shrewd a politician to allow a third force to gain strength. His power comes from being able to dictate terms to the BJP in the state. He is a hard bargainer at election time and doesn't allow the BJP leaders to take away too many seats than they can genuinely win.
With Venkaiah out of the way, expect the anti-Chandrababu group to be more vocal. They would assert themselves, criticise the TDP on issues, emerge as an opposition voice while being part of the power structure. This section of the BJP also feels that anti-incumbency is beginning to set in and does not want to get singed because of the alliance with the TDP.
At the forefront of this group are likely to be the converts from the Congress like former UPA Union ministers Daggubati Purandareswari and Kavuri Sambasiva Rao and former state minister Kanna Laxminarayana. They see no gains for the BJP by surviving on the coattails of Chandrababu Naidu. Besides someone like NTR's daughter Purandareswari who does not have a great personal equation with Chandrababu, does not see any political benefit from being part of a BJP-TDP alliance.
The caste factor is far more pronounced in Andhra than in Telangana. Venkaiah and Chandrababu both hail from the Kamma community while the YSR Congress is seen more as a Reddy community party. In 2014, actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan brought in the Kapu votes, a significant 26 per cent into the NDA kitty but now he is no longer sailing with the TDP and the BJP. The Kapu leaders in the BJP see in Venkaiah's exit, an opportunity to tap electoral benefit by wooing the community which is disenchanted with the TDP over the issue of reservations.
It is more than likely that the BJP in Andhra will now invest in a Kapu leader to decisively woo the vote bank. The BJP central leadership is also more than aware that Jaganmohan Reddy, after voting for Ram Nath Kovind in the Presidential election, is looking for a partnership as well. Though the fact that he has taken Prashant Kishor on board as a strategist for Mission 2019, would put a spoke in the wheels.
The loser in Venkaiah Naidu's ceremonial elevation is Chandrababu Naidu. The Union minister was the man who was on his speed dial whenever the CM needed to nudge the Centre. In fact, despite the presence of Venkaiah Naidu, Chandrababu could not get special status for Andhra. Interestingly this was a promise made by former PM Manmohan Singh and reiterated by Venkaiah Naidu, among other BJP leaders, during the election campaign in 2014.
How the BJP behaves from now could in the short term, depend on which way the result of the by-election in Nandyal goes. This is a seat that was won by the YSRC but its MLA, Bhuma Nagi Reddy, joined the TDP. After his sudden demise, both Naidu and Jagan are sparing no effort to win the by-poll that may be held before September. Expect the BJP knives to be out for Chandrababu in case Nandyal settles for Jagan.