Why Modi-Shah picked Vijay Rupani as new Gujarat CM
Many political analysts are quite surpised as to why a junior like Vijay Rupani has replaced Anandiben Patel.
The fact of the matter is there are many misnomers about Rupani.
He might have fought his first Vidhan Sabha elections in 2014, but in party hierarchy, he is one of the senior-most leaders in the ministry and the only leader in it who was in jail for nine months under MISA in 1975 during Emergency as an Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) student. He was the Mayor of Rajkot over two decades ago and later a member of the Rajya Sabha.
But more than that, it is his track record as a good election strategist and executioner, along with the caste challenge that the BJP is facing in Gujarat in the wake of Patel and Dalit estrangements, that compelled the Modi-Shah duo to go for Rupani, a member of Jain community which comprises less than one per cent of Gujarat’s population.
Two examples suffice to prove his track record as a master election strategist.
On the eve of the 2007 Gujarat state Assembly polls, when rumours were doing rounds that Patels shall desert Modi in Saurashtra, a senior journalist telephoned Rupani, who was in-charge of 57 BJP seats in Saurashtra and Kutch.
Rupani’s reply was emphatic: “Not a single seat less than 42.”
BJP won 43 seats, one more than he had predicted. Before the 2012 polls, the same journalist rang Rupani once again, who was yet again in-charge of the party in Saurashtra and Kutch. Rupani predicted around 35 seats for BJP. And the BJP won exactly 35 seats.
That speaks of him as an electoral strategist, a quality which BJP direly needs if it wants to win the 2017 polls against the most adverse conditions.Now, the caste arithmetic.
Many BJP supporters were sore that not making a Patel the chief minister would cost the party heavily as the entire Patel vote bank would shift to the Congress. But having seen and fought many epic electoral battles in the past, the Modi-Shah duo did calculations in exactly the opposite manner.
The duo gave due credence to the non-Patel vote that is silently and severely estranged from the Patel community because they have detested the violent agitation of the Patels for reservation, despite being most affluent community in Gujarat and having dominance in every trade and business and also in government services.
Skillfully tapping OBC, especially the OBC kshatriya vote, by BJP could produce good dividends in case Patels try and desert the BJP on the issue of reservation and jump into Congress’s arms.
In fact, such a phenomenon could transfer the OBC vote to the BJP. But that is a difficult scenario as Patels have always felt uncomfortable with OBC and Muslim-loving Gujarat Congress, which in turn has marginalised Patels since 1980s.
If they go with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), then too it could help the BJP.
In the November 2015 district and taluka panchayat polls, Anandiben couldn’t convert the anti-Patel sentiment prevailing in the society to her advantage because she was herself a Patel, had a poor electoral strategy and had serious image problems on other fronts. Modi and Shah think that Rupani can do what Anandiben couldn’t because he is a non-Patel Jain.
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| Anandiben couldn’t convert the anti-Patel sentiment prevailing in Gujarat to her advantage. |
However, Rupani has a good grip over Patels too. Plus, he has got a Patel deputy CM in Nitinbhai Patel, who has been the senior-most minister in hierarchy in Modi’s 2012 Cabinet as well Anandiben’s 2014 Cabinet.
Nitin Patel’s name could work amongst Patels in north and central Gujarat.
Plus, an additional advantage with Rupani is that he is a good executioner in the party, who has followed Modi’s and Shah’s directions to the hilt and succeeded in producing results.
Modi and Shah were looking for a person who could carry out their political and electoral commands with precision and also run the administration. Rupani fulfills at least the first part of this expectation.
But he will have to prove himself in the second part, which is intricately linked to Modi’s election-related good governance strategy. He will have to clean up the state administration of inefficient and corrupt officials and replace them with able and deserving ones.
Under Anandiben bureaucratic corruption had reached alarming levels with officials in key places openly demanding money and even arm-twisting businessmen when they didn’t get the required bribe.
Shockingly, many officers had started taking bribes in gold bricks. Anandiben did try to intervene in some cases but her authority had severely eroded due to a combination of factors.
However, Anandiben was a fast decision-maker, in some cases even faster than Modi. Rupani will have to match her speed of decision-making while carrying out a stiff clean-up drive in the state bureaucracy.
Rupani did a good job of running the ministries of transport and water resources that he held under Anandiben while being the state BJP president. But still he is learning the ropes.
The best way for the new chief minister to run the administration is to first do a precise study of Modi’s achievements and ruling style in key areas in Delhi.
Plus, he has to study Modi’s revolutionary self-employment schemes for common people and Dalits and schedule tribes, such as Mudra and Start-up India and his Ujwala scheme for giving LPG fuel to the below-poverty-line (BPL) people.
He also needs to coordinate with the Centre to get these schemes implemented in Gujarat in the maximum possible manner, if needed by playing an active role. Modi’s biggest achievement in two years is giving totally clean and scam-free governance by wielding a stick against corruption.
While following the electoral blueprint with precision, if Rupani emulates Modi on clean governance, then none can stop him from succeeding in what is the most trying time for the BJP in Gujarat in two and a half decades.