The RSS- BJP ecosystem mainly thrives on one strategy — one lays the ground work for the other to win elections. But this one formula may not be enough to breach the TMC fortress in West Bengal.

With BJP steadily increasing its presence in the state, West Bengal seems to have become the saffron party's new prestige battle ahead of the Lok Sabha Elections 2019. While the air is already thick with claims and counter-claims of winning all 42 seats, the national BJP leadership has given clear instructions to the state unit to strike while the iron is hot.

While BJP president Amit Shah, during his recent visit, gave the state leadership a target of 22 seats in the state, party's state chief Dilip Ghosh has set his eyes on higher goals — he wants 35 seats at least.

Quite ambitious, one would say, but Ghosh doesn't quite agree. Because he knows that in the eventuality of BJP losing seats in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh — which doesn't seem unlikely considering the party's poor performance in the recent by-polls  —  the party will have to count on states like West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. There is no other way. The state BJP has already sent this message to its district level units.

Numbers do matter

During the Modi tsunami of 2014, the BJP managed to bag only one Lok Sabha seat from West Bengal while the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha gifted them the second one. With demand for a separate state of Gorkhaland yet to be fulfilled and the TMC re-organising itself in the hill area of north Bengal, the BJP in all likelihood will lose the second seat.

But the party's national leadership is not ready to offer a walkover to the TMC at any cost. And they have good reasons for that.  

In 2011, the BJP had almost no presence in the state. In 2014, it finished fourth in almost all the seats. They won just seat in Assembly by-election in 2014.

In 2016, BJP bagged only three out of 294 seats in the state Assembly elections. However, the party leaders started aiming higher once they finished second in the Cooch Behar Lok Sabha by-election.  

This is when they started to restructure the organisation. Re-organising the set-up across wards and at booth-level. District leaders were also ordered to form 10-member ward-committees throughout the state. The dream is still unfulfilled, but they saw a silver lining in north Bengal.

Counting missed calls

When BJP started its membership drive through missed calls back in 2014, they got an overwhelming response. According to party sources, about 45 per cent of them got primary membership in 2016, that is, they roped in about 45 lakh members using this system. In 2014, it was between three-and-a-half lakh and five lakh.

However, there seems to be some mis-dialling of late. Party insiders feel the number has come down to 20-25 lakh now. They are forced to assume that may be some of them lost interest, or have joined some other party. A similar drive will start in mid-August and will continue till September 5.

Few days ago, the national leadership sent a requisition to the district level (the party has divided Bengal into 37 organisational districts) to increase the number of members. They fixed a target of at least 10 names for each district. All leaders were asked to send the name of new members along with their mobile phone number and photocopy of their electoral photo ID card (EPIC). While everyone couldn't fulfil the target, they got at least 20,000 new active members who will coordinate at the grassroots-level.

The trade unions

The state has a history of trade union movements and almost all ruling parties have endorsed one or the other group.

When TMC came to power, most of the signboards of the CPI(M)-affiliated Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) changed to All India Trinamool Trade Union Congress (AITTUC), which is affiliated to the ruling party.

Even the Congress-affiliated to All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC) has a considerable presence in West Bengal. But since there aren't any trade unions affiliated to the  BJP, it isn't possible for the party to spread its roots among the labour force. In 2011, when Nitin Gadkari was BJP president, he initiated a Mazdoor Mahasangh. But soon after his tenure got over, it was absorbed by the RSS-affiliated Bhartiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS).

The BJP, however, well understands the importance of trade unions in Bengal politics. In April, it formed the Bhartiya Mazdoor Trade Union Council (BMTUC). Top leaders for the BMTUC were chosen from Bengal, but with little or no impact till date.

The BJP is trying hard to reach out to the unorganised sector workers and has formed a kisan morcha, Paksu, in the state to make them aware of central government schemes. They have, in fact, got good result in tribal areas.

Success in tribal areas

The saffron party performed well in tribal areas of Jungle Mahal in terms of seats in last the panchayat polls. The party benefited from the RSS ground work as well as the work done by its cadres in the unorganised sectors.

They have adopted the same strategy for north Bengal. Union minister Suresh Prabhu is scheduled to visit the state soon and will hold a meeting with the party workers in which problems of tea-workers will also be discussed. The BJP is definitely eying more than one seat in the hills and Terai region of the state. 

Goal of RSS

The RSS, for its centenary celebrations in 2025, has aimed to set up its 1,000th branch in the state. In 2016, the RSS had 400-odd braches in the state. If RSS reaches the target, it will definitely benefit the BJP in the longer run.

Even though the number of party members and vistaraks (expansion volunteers) are increasing, there is leadership problem in the state BJP. So, the party is entirely dependent on the RSS and its branches.

Minority vote

Boosting the saffron party's expansion drive, former TMC minister Humayun Kabir joined the BJP last month. Kabir, before walking over to the BJP, was in the Congress after he was expelled by the TMC in 2015 for alleged anti-party activities.

Recently, Abdul Karim Chaudhury, a five-time MLA and former minister in Mamata Banerjee’s cabinet from north Bengal left the party and reportedly sent a letter to Amit Shah, expressing his intension to join the saffron party. If Chaudhury joins the BJP, he, along with, Kabir will be the Muslim face of the party.

The BJP has been trying its best to reach out to the state's minority population and raising issues like the poor education rate among the community. If the party wants to meet its Lok Sabha target, it has no option but to woo the Muslim votes.

Intellectual touch

The party so far has failed to launch its own "intellectual" face in the state. The recent exit of Chandan Mitra, who till a few days back was the party's ubiquitous media face in Delhi, has hit the BJP further.

Although Mitra doesn't have much clout in the state, the move marks a new shift in the Trinamool-BJP rivlarly in West Bengal.

Last December, convenor of the party’s state intellectual cell, Diptangshu Chowdhury, joined the Trinamool Congress.

Now, the saffron party is reaching out to teachers, especially popular teachers (from school to university level) in the rural areas as well as urban paras (neighbourhoods). They are discussing national issues with them. They are trying to spread party ideology among them to reach the small localities as well as students.

The BJP doesn't have much presence among the student unions across colleges and universities in the state. Although the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) — again, an RSS affiliate — is there, the fact that the BJP has little command over ABVP doesn't help the party's cause much. 

A few days ago, governor KN Tripathi invited some prominent intellectuals to a tea party in Raj Bhavan, but most of the known face avoided it. It's apparent that no many want to earn the wrath of the TMC.

People connect

In their efforts to connect with the people, Ram Navami has become a favourite among political parties in West Bengal —a major tug of war between the BJP and the TMC. As the TMC too joined the bandwagon, BJP's strategy of celebrating religious events proved to be successful among a particular section.

Now, the saffron party is planning to organise a "rath yatra" in November. The ruling party has two options: either allow it or stop it. In both scenarios, the BJP will be a gainer.

Waking up pretty late, the TMC has now decided to connect with voters through Facebook pages for all 42 seats.

However, the BJP — known for its strong social media presence and digital campaigning — has not revealed its immediate plan. But a campaign war has already started via WhatsApp groups. If party insiders are too be believed, the leadership is not happy with the social media activity of the state unit.

Another immediate challenge the party faces is the launch of TMC's "BJP Hatao" campaign to counter BJP’s "Ebar Bangla (it's Bengal this time)" from August 1. With the BJP failing to cobble up groups for this campaign across booths, the party is expected to begin its drive after August 15.

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