Why India doesn't have much to hope from Imran Khan's victory in Pakistan
The more things change, the more they remain the same in Pakistan.
In the end there was no proverbial twist in the tale. Imran Khan’s victory in Pakistan’s elections was being predicted by most and it turned out to be true. The Pakistani military which had shaped the electoral battlefield in Khan’s favour was, of course, the real winner as it managed to make it clear to the civilians that anyone who would dare to cross swords with it would end up languishing in jail like former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Army support
Imran Khan has won the electoral battle, but he still will have to seek out some allies to form a coalition government.
This is a remarkable turnaround from the previous parliamentary elections in May 2013 when his party, the PTI, had come third.
Reacting to the general election results, Sharif, who is serving 10 years in jail on charges of money laundering, alleged that the polls had been “stolen” and warned that the “tainted and dubious” results would cast a “bad impact” on the country’s politics.
But that’s the lament of a leader whose gamble of generating sympathy vote in his favour failed to work.
The Pakistani voter, with considerable help from the military, has brought Imran Khan to the helm of affairs in the country. While his charisma and communication skills did help, it was his outreach to the military that ultimately paved the way for his prime ministership.
Khan had denounced the Afghan war as the “wrong war” and his party protested against the supply provision to the US.
His advocacy in favour of the Taliban was so strong that he was chosen by them as their representative in peace talks with the Pakistan government. He denounced Sharif in strongest terms and gave political legitimacy to the military’s anti-Sharif agenda.
In return for this, the Pakistani military prepared the ground for Imran Khan’s prime ministership. It went after Nawaz Sharif and virtually decimated PML-N. And then it helped Khan by mainstreaming various extremist groups.
It propped up the Tehreek-e-Labaik which advocates strict anti-blasphemy laws. Other globally ostracised groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi were propped up under different guises.
Even the founder of Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Fazlur Rehman Khalil, came out in support of Khan and the PTI. No wonder the rise of Imran Khan was in more ways than one fore-ordained. After his victory, Khan has been quick to talk of making Pakistan’s institutions stronger under which everyone will be held accountable.
He has promised to make a “Naya Pakistan” which would be an Islamic welfare state. On the question of India, Khan suggested that the blame game needed to stop between the two countries over Kashmir and Balochistan, claiming: “If India takes one step towards us, we will take two steps toward them… but at least (we) need a start. Right now, it is one-sided where India is constantly just blaming us.”
Governance
But challenges abound on the issue of governance, the central plank of Khan’s campaign, and they will come to the forefront soon for the new government.
The economy is tanking with a sinking rupee and growing deficit. Pakistan will have to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout package. Pakistan’s growing global isolation is a challenge and India has made it a point to diplomatically wage a campaign against Pakistan at various fora.
Relations with the US are on a downward spiral, though Washington has said that it will “look for opportunities” to work with the new leaders of Pakistan after they form the government, and will try to advance security, stability and prosperity in South Asia.
Pakistan has been grey-listed by the terror finance watchdog, Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Internal security is volatile with an escalating Shia-Sunni rivalry and growing imprint of the ISIS. Pakistan’s relations with China remain key to its economic future. In its official statement, China has suggested that it hoped Pakistan would maintain political and social stability and concentrate on national development.
The investments China has made as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor will be central in this evolving dynamic. There is trouble on the ground and the projects are languishing. Beijing would be hoping that a stable government can give these projects the much needed impetus. China has recently lent Pakistan $1 billion to boost the South Asian country’s plummeting foreign currency reserves.
Challenges ahead
The biggest challenge for Imran Khan, however, will be to manage the civil-military equations in a way that allows him to complete his full term in office.
If the military has built him, it can also do away with him. After all, Nawaz Sharif was ousted partly for opening the treason case against General Pervez Musharraf.
For India, it will be more of the same.
Before next year’s elections, there will be hardly any appetite in New Delhi for any bold overtures towards Pakistan.
The question from India’s perspective would be whether it can manage the turmoil on the border.
Pakistan’s nuisance value remains high and it can very easily bring India from an emerging power to one which is focused on South Asia.
The broader transformation in Pakistan with civilian supremacy and the Army’s marginalisation, something which many had hoped after the elections in 2013, is nowhere in sight. The Pakistani military is now more firmly ensconced in the saddle than ever before.
In fact, learning from the past, it has begun to act smarter by working through the backdoor. The challenge for India and the world is how to manage the negative externalities emerging out of Pakistan’s internal turmoil.
If there is any message in Imran Khan’s victory, it is: the more things change, the more they remain the same in Pakistan.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)