Why the world has to think beyond military strikes
Yemen, the poorest country in the oil-rich Arab world, is being bombed by a coalition of Arab countries. Monarchs and dictators have decided to restore democratically-elected President Hadi’s government in Sanaa, after Houthi rebels forcefully ousted the regime. You can’t afford to smile at the irony in that because Yemen is descending into the chaos that al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS) and other nihilists thrive in. The air campaign will come back to haunt Saudi Arabia and its Western allies as unilateral declarations of war on a people have always ended in self-defeating radicalisation of the people.
The West's attempts to force democracy on people have failed in the region. Of course, Iraq was a success initially, but look at it today. Different Islamist extremists shouting death to America now control Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia and parts of West Africa. The governments there, if any, are reduced to mere stamps. As the entire MENA (Middle-East-North-Africa) region is imploding, the world has to think of far more creative ways to intervene in the crises than simple military strikes.
Devil's playground
At least eight provinces of Yemen have been al-Qaeda playground for over a decade. All this while, US drones have kept up the strike rate in the country. To no avail. The terrorists have only multiplied. Now there are factions declaring independence or allegiance to the ISIS. The Houthis are Shias, but unlike Iranian or Iraqi Shias, they are almost Sunni-like culturally.
Yemen has had a tumultous past but the divide was never so stark. They were restive for a long time and once the Ali Abdullah Saleh regime ended, his militia backed Houthis and that led to the latest crisis. The divide between Houthis and Sunnis is sharper today because the region is witnessing what can be called a Shia-Sunni war. That Sunni regimes have joined forces to attack Houthis has only strengthened the feeling. Iran and Hezbollah back them against Sunnis. This open sectarian support only compounds the crisis.
The solution, as has been proposed and executed, is worse than the problem.
The war in Yemen will be increasingly seen as a war on Yemen. Saudis have requested Pakistan and other friend countries to send ground troops for aid. Foreign boots on the ground will alienate more Yemenis, who have rebelled against their own corrupt and ineffective regimes because of the growing sense of injustice. The Saudi Army itself has a large number of Yemenis.
No Vacuum, no kings
The hard fact of the region is that the current rules are losing credibility among their own people. The monarchs and dictators have for long kept the people away from the power edifice. But there is a silent revolution taking place in these countries. The expanding middle class is aspirational and can see through the regimes. The Arab Spring was just a spark. It could be stomped out. But it has lit the middle class aspirations across the region and this will be the flame that can turn into a guiding light for the region. If that aspiration is crushed under military boots or bombed again and again, the flame will become a fire that engulfs the entire region.
The forced removal of regimes, the internecine wars, and all and sundry intervening to bring peace will not do.
Uprooting regimes leads to a vacuum that extremists with guns end up filling. The experiments of the West have failed too many times to be worth trying anymore. If this wave of radicalisation in MENA has to be contained, it can be done by the existing regimes - by introducing changes that empower their people. A gradual, guided handover of power to the people is the answer.
If they believe they can ride roughshod over people's desire forever, they will pay a heavy price. So will the rest of the world.