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IIT Kanpur prof predicts Covid peak in Delhi-Mumbai by Jan 15, India by Jan-end: 5 major takeaways

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Varsha Vats
Varsha VatsJan 07, 2022 | 17:43

IIT Kanpur prof predicts Covid peak in Delhi-Mumbai by Jan 15, India by Jan-end: 5 major takeaways

Rapidly increasing Covid cases is the country’s biggest concern these days. The new Omicron variant has infected 3,007 people till date, but that number says hardly anything, given that genome sequencing of the virus is a task that India is still grappling with. Meanwhile, the country recorded more than 1.1 lakh new cases in 24 hours this morning. The question on everyone's mind is the same: when will the Covid third wave peak?

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A lot of research is on to study the new variant, and what the situation will be like in the coming days.

Recently, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agarwal shared some data on Twitter. As per his tweet, Mumbai may see 30,000 to 60,000 cases per day during the peak of the third wave. Similarly, Delhi may report 35,000 to 70,000 cases around the peak, which has been predicted to be January 15.

In an exclusive conversation with India Today, Prof Manindra Agarwal shared a few more possibilities about the third wave. Here are 5 key takeaways.

1. PEAK IN 10 DAYS FROM NOW IN DELHI AND MUMBAI

During the interaction, Prof Manindra Agarwal said, “We have done some preliminary analysis, according to which the cases in cities like Delhi and Mumbai will continue to rise very sharply and the peak is estimated to be around the middle of this month, which is one week or 10 days from now.”

2. 4-8 LAKH CASES PER DAY

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India is already reporting more than one lakh Covid cases per day during the ongoing third wave, and according to the IIT Kanpur professor, the worst is yet to come. He explained, “We have a model which looks at the data and then estimates parameter value, and then we come up with the prediction.”

He added that during the peak time, India may see 4-6 lakh cases per day, which may happen by the end of this month for the whole country.

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Illustration: Seemon, DailyO

3. MAY REQUIRE 10-12,000 BEDS PER DAY IN MUMBAI AND DELHI RESPECTIVELY

The data shared by Prof Manindra on Twitter includes some more alarming insights. He wrote, “Hospitalisations are happening for only 3.5% reported cases, and so bed requirement will peak at 10,000. Bed requirement to peak at less than 12,000 for Delhi.”

4. WAVE APPEARS MANAGEABLE

These numbers might have scared you by now, but Prof Agarwal also mentioned that the wave is “manageable due to low hospitalisation rates”.

But it is equally important to stay alert. He said, “Things could change in the next couple of weeks. Also, there may be localised shortages of beds. So, proper care and planning is warranted.”

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5. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE THE EXACT FIGURES

In the interactions, Prof Manindra mentioned that the graph which goes up quickly is likely to fall quickly too. This means the peak and the third wave may not last for long. However, he also said, “For India, we are still in the dark because of insufficient data and it is too soon to say so.”

Earlier, a PTI report stated that according to Prof Manindra Agarwal, the third wave may end by April.

BUT DON’T TAKE IT LIGHTLY, SAYS WHO

On Thursday, January 6, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyes said that Omicron should not be dismissed as mild. "While Omicron does appear to be less severe compared to Delta, especially in those vaccinated, it does not mean it should be categorised as mild. Just like previous variants, Omicron is hospitalising people and it is killing people. In fact, the tsunami of cases is so huge and quick, that it is overwhelming health systems around the world," he said.

As cases continue to rise at the speed of light in the country, it is essential to be more alert. If you or someone near you experience Covid symptoms, follow self-isolation and get yourself tested. Mask up (wear the best possible mask) and follow Covid guidelines to keep the virus at bay.

Last updated: January 07, 2022 | 17:43
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