West Bengal politics: How Mukul Roy holds the key to revolt in TMC

Though the tremors within the Trinamool are nowhere close to the implosion that seems to be brewing in Congress, the undercurrents are palpable. In this context, the optics surrounding Mukul Roy’s deposition before the CBI yesterday is very significant.

A keen observer of West Bengal politics told me in Delhi the other day – if CBI does not detain Mukul after the interrogation (as they did in the case of Madan Mitra and others before this) it will be a greater cause of worry for the party than if he were to be arrested.  Exactly something like that seems to have happened.

It is a matter of speculation – why Mukul spent so much time in Delhi since summons were issued to him by the CBI – now more than two weeks back. It’s also noteworthy – CBI themselves didn’t press for the deadline of interrogation that it had originally set and allowed him to take his own sweet time to appear before them. If CBI was concerned about his tampering with evidence or influencing  potential witnesses – they should not have allowed that extra time (and also allow him to leave after the interrogations  yesterday). Mukul himself hasn’t denied rumours about him meeting BJP top-brass in Delhi and some BJP leaders have acknowledged that approaches for meetings at the top level were indeed made.

But, changing sides or jumping the ship cannot be the game-plan of a master strategist and “Mr Cool” like Mukul Roy. For him, a more potent weapon would be a veiled threat for leading a revolt in the party. And that’s exactly the card he seems to be playing. For BJP too, a split within Trinamool (and possible subsequent alliance with the splinter faction) might work far better than direct defections. In this context – one must also take note of BJP first announcing the impending cross-over of a large TMC contingent at Amit Shah’s January 20 rally in Burdawan and subsequently calling it off “for the time being”.  It’s not difficult to guess – in case of a division – which way this lot is going to go.

Before and after yesterday’s CBI deposition, Mukul’s messages were very clear and sharply defined. First, he was willing to cooperate with the investigation as he wants the “truth” to come out. He himself has not done anything “anaitik” (improper or unethical – as distinct from “abaidha”or illegal).  The selective “leaks” from CBI about what he has disclosed are also very significant.  In short, they can be interpreted as a “sneak preview” of  things that might come later.  (“Kahaani Abhi Baaki Hain”… wait for the next episode). After he came out of the CBI office (it seems he had indicated to his supporters while going in that he will not be kept beyond 4pm and that’s exactly when he emerged) his supporters cheered him by the name “Mukul Roy Zindabad” (not mentioning either Trinamool or the party supremo) and it seems they weren’t even carrying party flags. Finally came Mukul’s own statement: “Had it not been for this day, I wouldn’t have realised how much the people of West Bengal love me”.  No ambiguity in what he wanted to say... “make no mistakes I have my own support base”.

Mukul Roy is regarded as one of the shrewdest political brains and party organisers of recent times in Bengal – second only to, perhaps, the legendary CPM state politburo secretary – the late Anil Biswas, to whom the Left owe much of their 30 years of reign. While Trinamool’s rise has no doubt been due to Mamata’s crusading zeal and charisma – Mukul’s role in building the organisation from the grassroots is known to all. He has his key men placed in every district and ward, block and panchayat. He also controlled the party’s finances. It may not be an exaggeration to say he was to Mamata Banerjee what Amit Shah is to Modi.

Many question his allegedly dubious antecedents. But, the saying “There is no saint without a past and no sinner without a future” holds true for Politicians as well.  Especially if there is the Hooghly close by to have a holy dip in and wash away your sins.