Why BJP will not learn anything from UP loss

The results are out. The BJP has got a drubbing in the bypolls, dubbed as a test for Modi magic. Dubbed so by the media. There's a certain sense of joy in TV studios as experts, who don't like the BJP much, discuss the results. The BJP has lost massively in Uttar Pradesh, which it swept in May 2014.

The punditry peaks as they are generous with unsolicited advice to the BJP. There is unanimity among the analysts that the party should not follow an aggressive Hindutva line and abandon divisive politics if it wanted to repeat its May miracle. Their logic: The BJP fought the Lok Sabha elections on the agenda of development and good governance. This is spurious and based on pure presumption and positive prejudice.

Wishing BJP well or just wishing?

One, most of these pundits are not known to be BJP's well-wishers. In fact some of them wear on sleeves their anti-BJP credentials. Why would they give a good advice to BJP?

Two, the BJP did not win the Lok Sabha elections on the planks of development and good governance. This is one of the myths pundits have propagated and the BJP has been happy to not deny.

Why do BJP-baiters persist in giving the 'inclusive' advice to the party? They do not like the divisive debate raising heat in the hinterland. They wish to see the BJP as a moderate, inclusive political force. It's their wish that they somehow want the BJP to fulfil. They just wish they could vote for the BJP, the party that won.

This is problematic because they aren't fighting the battle, the BJP is. And the BJP isn't the party of their dreams. The BJP today is a party of Narendra Modi's dreams. He is making it the way he sees fit. Amit Shah sits at the console. None of these two leaders are known for their moderate views.

When hard becomes soft

Modi's critics want Modi to be more assertive and mute the hate-spewing Yogi Adityanath and Lakshmipati Tripathi. They want communal sentiments to be toned down. They don't want the BJP to rake up Love Jihad. They want BJP to be secular and progressive and treading on the middle path. They want BJP to become like Congress so they could love and hug the party in power without suffering any guilt or loss of face.  

All of a sudden, Modi and Amit Shah have become moderates because the rambunctious Gorakhpur Yogi has hijacked the "agenda". Modi's vision has found acceptance among liberals who, just the other day, thought Advani was the moderate, secular face that Modi wasn't. Before that, they believed Vajpayee was inclusive and Advani was the rath-riding Hindutva hood. There is a pattern that shows how the liberal landscape has shrunk as anti-Hindutva forces have surrendered acres by giving in inch by inch.

Let's talk about UP

The surprising saffron sweep of UP in the Lok Sabha elections didn't happen because people in the Hindi heartland suddenly discovered love for development and governance. If they loved development over narrow caste- and community-focused politics, they wouldn't have given the Samajwadi Party the majority it got in 2012 Vidhan Sabha elections. The Hindi heartland voted for the BJP because Modi represented Hindutva. He was seen as a strong, no-nonsense Hindu leader who would deliver them from the overtly minority-centric politics of Samajwadi Party and the Congress's neglect of the middle class.

The question that perturbs pundits is this: Why did the same electorate not vote for the BJP just three months down the line?

Well, because they didn't feel the need to. The bypolls were not bringing in any change. Look at the pathetically low turnout in UP and you have your answer.

The BJP voter simply didn't come out in hordes like they did in April-May because the last election was about change and the bypolls were about status quo. The Samajwadi Party managed to make its voters move.

Sorry to prick your thought bubble

The critics of the BJP believe the party will learn the lesson that divisive politics doesn't pay and would correct its course. They are headed for disappointment.

Modi represented hardline Hindutva in Lok Sabha elections. He did wrap it all in development and good governance of the Gujarat Model. But the wrapper doesn't matter, the content does.

Hindutva is the core of the BJP's ideology. Contrary to the liberal wish, the rhetoric will get sharper, the polarisation more pronounced. And much to their horror, it may well deliver when it matters. Modi, Yogi and Amit Shah aren't on different pages. Their critics reading out a different page in TV studios are.