Doklam standoff: Ajit Doval faces trial by fire in China
"Either we're going to solve this by realistic negotiation or there will be blood on the border." - Tom Metzger
"If you're a politician, you might want to learn the Buddhist way of negotiation. Restoring communication and bringing back reconciliation is clear and concrete in Buddhism." - Thich Nhat Hanh
"You have to persuade yourself that you absolutely don't care what happens. If you don't care, you've won. I absolutely promise you, in every serious negotiation, the man or woman who doesn't care is going to win."- Felix Dennis
"If you come to a negotiation table saying you have the final truth, that you know nothing but the truth and that is final, you will get nothing." - Harri Holkeri
Consider the above quotable quotes which present four thoughts and scenarios, and any of the four can be applicable in the India-China context as national security advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval begins his official visit to Beijing.
It will be a trial by fire for Doval as he holds intensive interactions with his Chinese interlocutors in Beijing. Needless to say, the main highlight of his trip won’t be the multilateral purpose for which he is visiting China: to participate in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) NSAs' meeting on July 27-28.
Doval's negotiations with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi – both are also special representatives on the India-China boundary dispute – on the ongoing Doklam standoff will be his prime mission.
This will be Doval’s most delicate assignment by far – and a diplomatic one. The wily Chinese have muddied the waters for him by unleashing its state-controlled media hounds after him.
China uses its media in a peculiar fashion. Like Pakistan uses its terror infrastructure as an instrument of its foreign policy, China uses its media as an extension of its foreign policy establishment.
China uses its media to float trial balloons, measure the response of foreign powers by publishing highly provocative opinion pieces, insulting key officials of targeted nations, portraying targeted nations in bad light and handing out naked threats to targeted countries.
China has done all that through its media ahead of Doval’s arrival in Beijing. Global Times, the most offensive of brats among Chinese media, has gone to the extent of calling Doval as the “main schemer” of the Doklam crisis.
Here is the relevant quote from the Global Times commentary: “As Doval is believed to be one of the main schemers behind the current border standoff between Chinese and Indian troops, the Indian media is pinning high hopes on the trip to settle the ongoing dispute.”
In keeping with blow-hot-blow-cold tactics of the Chinese media, China Daily sounded positive and talked of hope for a peaceful resolution to the standoff.
Doval knows too well that the carpet bombing by the Chinese media is meant to obfuscate issues and project an image of an unflinching China by repeatedly cautioning India that the only way out of the Doklam standoff is that the Indian troops unilaterally withdraw from the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction.
He is seasoned enough to know that governments don’t run their foreign policy on the basis of media reports nor do they have to react to media commentaries.
At the same time, one should not expect much from Doval’s China trip except that it is a work-in-progress. One should not forget that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a brief and informal meeting in Hamburg, Germany, on the sidelines of G20 summit. Doval is obviously carrying a message for the Chinese from PM Modi, but it’s definitely not a message of appeasement.
The military manoeuvre from India make it clear that the Indian troops are prepared for a long haul in Doklam. Not only more troops, more ammunition and more weapons are being sent to Doklam, the Indian troops have also started mining the border areas.
This is a firm rebuff to the Chinese demands that there will be no talks with India until India unilaterally withdraws its troops. And yet Doval is going to meet Chinese negotiators! For what? To discuss the weather in Doklam!
This is a strange case of China, the past master in the art of spreading confusion, is itself confused now.