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If Modi knows what's right, he must give Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel the boot

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Kumar Shakti Shekhar
Kumar Shakti ShekharMay 18, 2016 | 16:00

If Modi knows what's right, he must give Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel the boot

Imagine it is 2017 and the BJP has lost the Assembly elections in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. Two years since that imagined moment, when Modi will face the Lok Sabha elections, his stocks will be down. He will be demoralised. Reasons: The Opposition will highlight the BJP's defeat in Gujarat, a state which Modi had ruled for over 12 years before becoming the PM. It will be a major loss of face for the BJP which has ruled the state since 1998. It is the BJP and its ideological parent the RSS' "Hindutva laboratory". And, it is also the home state of BJP national president Amit Shah.

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And this is the fear which is worrying the BJP. Also, retaining the state has become a prestige issue for the party.

Both Modi and Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel complete two years on their respective posts later this month. Far from fitting into the shoes of Modi, Anandiben has been seen losing the plot. During her tenure, the state has been in the news for all the wrong reasons - agitations, corruption and infighting - which were unheard of during Modi's rule.

This has dimmed the BJP's chances of retaining the state in the 2017 Assembly election. A defeat in Gujarat will have a bearing on the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. No wonder then, Modi and Shah have been holding meetings along with the party's national vice-president, Om Prakash Mathur, who submitted a report to the leadership on April 25 on the BJP's position in Gujarat and preparedness for next year's Assembly elections.

It is time the BJP started taking these aspects seriously:

1. Why is there a negative perception about Anandiben Patel?

A. Patidar-Patel agitation

Gujarat, under chief minister Anandiben Patel, witnessed a massive pro-reservation protest led by Hardik Patel in August 2015. This led to a clampdown on a few cities, loss of lives and property, and a loss of face for the BJP. Internet communication in cities like Surat and Ahmedabad was also suspended like it was in Kashmir. Hardik has been in jail for several months now on charges of sedition.

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The agitation contributed to BJP's defeat in November 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. With Patels constituting about 18 per cent of the Gujarat population, they may spoil the BJP's chances in the state. The agitation reflects poorly on Anandiben's hold over administration because she herself comes from the Patel community who have been traditional voters of the BJP.

To rectify the situation, the state government announced a 10 per cent quota earlier this month for the economically backward section, who earn earn less than Rs 6 lakh per year.

B. Corruption charges

The opposition Congress has alleged that as Gujarat's revenue minister, when Modi was the chief minister, Anandiben had indulged in nepotism. They have also demanded her resignation over the issue alleging that 250 acres of land near Gir lion sanctuary was given for Rs 60,000 per acre whereas the then notified value of land was Rs 50 lakh per acre.

C. Interference of Anandiben's children

While Modi's 12-year tenure was at least untarnished by corruption, that of Anandiben is mired in controversies arising out of graft and nepotism charges. Anandiben's children - Anar and Shwetank - are alleged to be interfering in the administration. There is a growing perception that they have emerged as parallel power centres who "interfere in the governance and influence decision making". Modi is learnt to have asked Anandiben to "dispel the perception" and "rectify her image" in the eyes of the public.

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D. Infighting and lack of coordination

The state unit of the BJP is plagued with infighting. There are also allegations of communication and coordination deficit between the state government and the party. There is no love lost also between Anandiben and Amit Shah. The first step towards streamlining inner-party and party-government coordination has been taken. Vijaybhai Rupani replaced RC Faldu as the state party chief in February. Anandiben's relations with bureaucracy is not very cordial. While Modi had a grip over the bureaucracy, his successor has failed to maintain even a basic coordination with it.

E. Poor performance in December 2015 local elections

Under CM Anandiben Patel's stewardship, BJP's hold over local politics has only slipped. Though the party retained all the six municipal corporations (Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar) and won 40 of the 56 municipalities, the Congress, which, is out of power in the state for two decades, won 22 of the 31 district panchayats. The Congress drastically improved its performance because it had won just one seat in the 2010 polls. Even in the 230 taluka panchayats with 4,778 seats, the Congress had an edge by bagging 2,509 seats, while the BJP trailed by winning 1,981.

F. Om Prakash Mathur's report

BJP national vice-president and Rajya Sabha MP, Om Prakash Mathur, who is considered to be close to the prime minister, submitted a report on April 25 to the party leadership. The report is believed to have said that Anandiben's popularity is on the wane, particularly after Hardik's Patel violent reservation agitation.

G. Anandiben's 'superannuation'

Modi had set a criterion of age for party members to become a minister or remain on a ministerial post and fixed 75 as the upper limit. On that very criterion, veterans like LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Shanta Kumar failed to become Union ministers and the first two were made part of the "Margdarshak Mandal". By that standard, Anandiben, having born on in 1941, will turn 75 on November 21. With this, she will also fall in the category of the "superannuation" age and should ideally lose her post.

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Has Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel become a liability for Prime Minister Narendra Modi now?

2. When is the change expected?

Anandiben may be replaced anytime. However, friends in the BJP say the change may come around Diwali. The reason being that she will turn 75 on November 21. However, it may be even later because there is no such hard and fast rule as such. Union minorities affairs minister Najma Heptulla, despite turning 76 on April 13, is still going strong in her post. It may be possible that both Anandiben and Heptulla may be made governors, possibly when a reshuffle of the Union cabinet takes place.

The BJP is also waiting for the results of the four Assembly states in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala and a by-election Gujarat's Talala seat. The party will wait if the results are heartening to it.

3. Who will succeed Anandiben?

Names of several leaders are being considered for Anandiben's successor. Basically, the topmost choice among them all is the BJP national president Amit Shah himself. Friends in the BJP said, "It is either Shah or anyone, even Anandiben, will do. It doesn't make any difference."

In the current scenario, either Modi or Shah can only change the fortunes of the state party in their home state. It is impossible for Modi to go back to Gujarat. Shah's chances to return are also very bleak because he has to oversee the crucial Assembly elections early next year, particularly in Uttar Pradesh (UP). He is considered an expert on UP, having strategised the win of 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

Hence, the party may choose one among state health minister Nitin Patel, state party president Vijay Rupani, national vice-president Purshotam Rupala and senior party general secretary Bhikhu Dalsaniya.

Whoever is the chief minister, chances of the BJP's win will finally boil down to Modi and Shah. The general perception in the party is that the whirlwind tour of the PM and the party president throughout the state during the Assembly elections will change the tide in their favour, no matter who is the chief minister of the state at that point in time.

And this explains the BJP leadership's delay in finding a replacement for Anandiben.

Last updated: May 18, 2016 | 16:00
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