Who will win Bihar polls - development or caste?

Caste has undoubtedly been an integral part of the Bihar elections over the years. Almost all the major political parties here have considered caste to be a decisive factor in successive polls in the state. It was only in the last two elections – the 2010 Assembly polls and the 2014 elections – that the scourge of caste took the back seat in the state. In those elections, the people had elected the NDA with a thumping majority making votaries of development politics believe that voters of a seemingly caste-conscious state had come of age.

In both elections, the NDA had entered into the poll fray with its progressive agenda of development. Bihar had recorded the growth rate of 10 per cent on an average ever since Nitish Kumar had taken over the reins of the state government in 2005. It was the mandate for the NDA under his leadership that prompted political commentators to assume the plank of progress had overtaken the caste-related issues in the race to power in Bihar.

But is the situation as good as it seems? As the next Assembly elections are coming nearer, it is becoming clear the caste factor cannot be wished away from the state’s electoral scene. In fact, so perceptible is its impact in the run-up to the polls it makes one wonder if it had ever disappeared.

In the upcoming polls, almost all the parties appear to have set out to win over the various caste groups in their own way. While some of them are organising caste-based rallies and conferences, others are trying to woo the leaders of different castes to gain advantage at the hustings.

This may appear to be ironical because the Bihar polls are now being dubbed as the straight contest between the two leaders who are considered the epitomes of development-centric politics. PM Narendra Modi, who is leading the NDA and CM Nitish Kumar, who is heading the grand alliance of the JD-U, RJD and the Congress, owe their success to their development agenda which they have pursued rather vigorously. But even their proven track records have not influenced their respective alliances to junk the caste factor and bank solely upon the progress plank.

It is apparently because of the complex caste arithmetic in the state that has prompted the BJP to join hands with former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, a popular leader of the mahadalit community which accounts for about 15 per cent votes in the state. The BJP is also part of caste-specific programmes held in the state.The grand alliance of the Janata Parivar and the Congress are not following a different electoral course either. Though their CM candidate Nitish Kumar has been underlining his resolve to keep working on his agenda of inclusive development, his alliance leaders such as Lalu Prasad seem busy working for the consolidation of the different caste groups.

The Bihar Swabhiman rally in Patna last Sunday saw the RJD president making a bid to fortify his traditional vote bank. He talked about the unity of his caste and decried the bid of his opponents to divide his fellow castemen. “But can anybody divide the Yadavs?” he asked.

The rally underlined the alliance’s strategies for the coming polls. On the one hand, it was seeking to take advantage of Nitish’s image and, on the other, it was trying to mobilise the different castes which have been its traditional support base. However, the optimists among the advocates of development politics in Bihar still believe that development will remain the central issue in this election as well.

Citing the dominant presence of young voters under the age of 35, they think the Bihari youth of the social media generation want to exercise their franchise without giving any consideration to the caste factor. For them, development of Bihar is the most important issue in the elections. Whatever happens, the battle of ballots is set to be a keen contest between the country’s two champions of development politics.