With Nitish in command and kingmaker Lalu, the real test for Bihar begins now
The massive mandate won in Bihar by the Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan is the Janata Party government moment for the victors of Bihar, particularly the mercurial RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav.
The Narendra Modi-led BJP dispensation would henceforth be eyeing the probable post-victory political circus in Bihar. It would be hoping for the onset of political wranglings within the Grand Alliance of the RJD, the single largest party in Bihar, and its ally and the second-largest party of chief minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U).
The political Buzkashi, from the BJP'S perspective, would revolve around the RJD and its unquestionable satrap Lalu who has suddenly become larger than life since Bihar results on Sunday. Detractors of the Grand Alliance would be hoping that an internecine political conflict erupts between the two biggest partners of the Grand Alliance while the third partner, the Congress, watches as a hapless bit player.
The first step towards this potential conflict would inevitably revolve around the RJD as Lalu Yadav would demand his pound of flesh as the single largest party in the state Assembly. This may well be the post of deputy chief minister which will predictably go to one of his two elected sons.
Nitish Kumar, who will begin his third consecutive term as chief minister, shouldn't have a problem with this because all of this post-poll choreography should be a part of the pre-decided understanding within the Grand Alliance.
So, one presumes that this camel's hump would be crossed over by the Grand Alliance partners. This seems to be a given.
The real problem wouldn't lie here. It may surface after the Nitish government is installed with the RJD getting a lion's share in the ministry and the most junior partner, the Congress, adequately adjusted.
The real problem would start when the Nitish government is a few weeks old and the RJD tries to micromanage it. It is a real possibility. If that were to happen it would start ringing the alarm bells for the Grand Alliance and make no mistake about it that the BJP wouldn't be afar, sharpening its knives.
This will be the Janata Party moment for the Grand Alliance - and it won't be unmindful of this fact, particularly the RJD.
A wily politician like Lalu is obviously not unaware of the boobytraps lying ahead in the shape of his political aspirations. But this is 2015, not 2005, the last year of Lalu in power when social media was not born.
In fact, Lalu himself has gone on record after Bihar results on Sunday when he dropped enough hints that he is sensitised about his duties and responsibilities.
Lalu has emerged as a political sphinx in this election and it is his vital second innings. He knows that not just the people of Bihar but the whole of India would be watching how the Nitish government 3.0 performs.
Lalu can't be unaware of the inevitable parallel with the failed Janata Party experiment and more than three and a half decades of this failed experiment he wouldn't like to repeat it.
As for Nitish, if the Lalu pushes were to become shoves he would, in all probability, be ready to kick the chief ministerial chair and get away from the scene and cool his heels in New Delhi. Nitish knows that he is the linchpin of the Grand Alliance and it can't function for a day without his being on board.
Moreover, Lalu finds himself in the mould of SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, who used his electoral victory in the last UP Assembly elections as an opportunity to hand over the baton to his son Akhilesh. Lalu too has to do the same as he is debarred by courts to contest elections and hold any public office.
After all, he has to work for his next generation. After all, it is political dynasty which ironically he has got a chance to further by defeating a man like Narendra Modi who has no predecessor or successor in politics. After all, it is India where political dynasty is no anathema.
Suddenly, Modi finds himself in the company of women regional satraps like Mayawati in the north, Jayalalithaa in the south and Mamata Banerjee in the east who have no dynasty successors.