Revealing BJP's game plan for 2017 UP polls
Very few parties have witnessed a steep decline in fortune as the BJP has done in Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Out of power in the last three Vidhan Sabhas, the number of its seats plummeted from 174 in 1996 to 47 in 2012. The party was finding it difficult in Lok Sabha elections also, and in 2004 and 2009, the BJP was struggling to stay relevant in the state with 10 seats each time.
Then came 2014. And Modi mania or tsunami, call what you want, swept Uttar Pradesh like never before with the BJP winning 71 seats. It was something which didn't happen even during the days of the Ram Janambhoomi/Babri Masjid controversy. Now the BJP is staring at its toughest challenge so far, as it gears up to fight a do-or-die battle in Uttar Pradesh. A battle which it knows will not only validate its position but will also pave the way for another shot for power in 2019.
So how is the BJP preparing for its most important electoral battle?
The situation in Uttar Pradesh, going by statistics, is nothing short of a nightmare for the party and it is also a clear indication of the kind of fight it has in hand. There are close to 200 Assembly seats, which the party has not won in the last 15 years and it had polled 3,000-5,000 votes. There are 60 seats which the party has not won till now and there are close to 100 seats which the party has been winning or losing.
“One of the biggest problems is that the traditional voter of the BJP - Brahmin, baniya and vaishya have deserted the party. If the party is on a strong wicket they vote for us, otherwise they always end up voting for the winning candidate,” said a BJP leader in the state. He added, “One of the biggest challenges for the party will be to convince its traditional vote bank that it is on a strong wicket and it will happen only once we are able to generate an impression that we are winning.”
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| Union HRD minister Smriti Irani is a top contender for the CM post in UP. |
The BJP knows that to repeat its Lok Sabha 2014 performance, it needs a miracle but how will that miracle happen? In 2014, it had a face in Narendra Modi. Will the party be able to win an election in Uttar Pradesh without a face is a question which is plaguing the BJP.
According to sources in the party, there are two factions within the party. One faction believes that instead of focusing on one candidate, the party should fight elections without naming anybody as the chief ministerial candidate. It says that instead of declaring a chief ministerial candidate, the state should be divided into six zones and each zone should be handed over to one leader, who the party feels, can best handle the zone. Once the results are out, the party can pick the chief minister from the six leaders depending on how an area has performed.
The second faction feels that the party should not repeat the errors of the last two Vidhan Sabha elections where it fought without naming a chief ministerial candidate and could not even cross 50 seats. They also hint at the results in Assam where the party fought with a chief ministerial candidate and won. The leaders believe that every state has its own peculiarities and strategies should be made keeping them in mind. The view of this faction - that of entering the fray having named a chief ministerial candidate - has now become the dominant mood in the party.
The party is also coming close to finalising the caste its chief ministerial candidate should belong to. According to sources, the deliberations are on whether the chief minister should be an OBC, Brahmin or Thakur. A senior BJP leader said, “When Kalyan Singh, an OBC, was at the helm of affairs, castes ranging from Lodh to dhanuk to dhobi to Kahar all would vote for us. Post the decline of Kalyan Singh, we have not been able to present such a combination of OBC, Thakur and Brahmins and this has been one of the big reasons that we have not been able to make a comeback in UP.”
Another area the BJP is deliberating on is the “go Brahmin” strategy of the Congress. A section of the party feels that with the Dalits and a section of the OBCs already having chosen their side, this strategy might wean away a section of the upper caste vote from the BJP.
“The party, by making Keshav Prasad Maurya as its state unit chief, has already sent a strong signal to the OBCs. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an upper caste face as the CM candidate so that its erstwhile OBC-upper caste combination is revived,” said a state BJP leader.
According to sources, the BJP is likely to declare the name of its chief ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh in October-November. Apart from names of local leaders from the state doing the rounds, chances of the chief minister coming from the Central leadership can also not completely be ruled out. Apart from Yogi Adityanath, Mahesh Sharma, the names of a few other leaders are also being discussed.
A strong contender for the post of chief minister is Union human resources development minister Smriti Irani. A senior BJP leader said, "Smriti Irani has become the face of the fight against the Gandhis, is from Moradabad and a popular figure. She has the calibre of enthusing the rank and file of the party and going by her profile, she has a pan-UP presence.” He added, “The fact is that with her at the helm she can give BSP supremo Mayawati a tough time and the glimpse of it was seen in the Rajya Sabha."
The BJP is also working overtime to ensure better coordination in its relationship with the RSS. Post the win in Assam, where close coordination between the RSS and BJP worked wonders, the party is hopeful that in Uttar Pradesh also, this equation will help it enormously. It is also wary of what the breakdown in the BJP and RSS relationship did in Bihar.
There is also an indication that development is going to be the main plank of the party and core issues like Ram Mandir will be put on backburner. The party is hopeful that with development as its main electoral agenda, along with a carefully woven caste combination, it has a good chance of scripting electoral success in Uttar Pradesh this time around.