Cabinet reshuffle: UP polls to play on Modi's mind

Sooner or later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's council of ministers will be reshuffled and Uttar Pradesh will get the biggest share of the cake.

Strangely, the assertion that reshuffle would take place was made not by the prime minister, though, strictly speaking, it is his prerogative. But it was BJP president Amit Shah, who seems to have committed a faux pas, overstepped his brief or encroached upon the PM's jurisdiction by confirming on May 27 that there will be a reshuffle in PM Modi's council of ministers. However, he refused to specify the likely date.

"I am not going to discuss it with you. A lot of factors have to be taken into account, including the political situation or the time," he told the media in a press conference held on two years of Modi government.

Shah clearly indicated that political considerations - such as representation of various groups and states, especially those which are going to polls - will be factored in during the crucial exercise.

This brings us to the pertinent point that five states - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur - will go to polls early 2017. Elections in another two - Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh - will be held by December 2017.

Among all these seven states, UP holds the utmost significance for the BJP for a number of reason. Primarily, it is because UP is the most populous state of India, and therefore has most number of Assembly seats (403). Moreover, PM Modi's Lok Sabha constituency is in the state's temple town of Varanasi. In addition, maximum number of Union ministers (13) come from this state. Last but not the least, BJP had swept the 2014 Lok Sabha elections by winning 71 of the 80 seats.

The UP Assembly elections are already being touted as semi-finals before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Hence, once again, UP could be the prime beneficiary even in the proposed reshuffle.

The cabinet reshuffle may happen any time soon. It seems even more imminent after the BJP's two-day national executive meeting in Allahabad, which concluded on June 13. It has also been rendered quite necessary now with BJP's Sarbanand Sonowal becoming the chief minister of Assam. The Union cabinet is all set to get a new minister of state for sports (independent charge).

And, similarly, junior minister in the ministry of social justice and empowerment, Vijay Sampla, has been sent to Punjab as the chief of BJP’s state unit.

A few new faces could be inducted and portfolios of some ministers could be changed. On the basis of their respective performances, some ministers may also be dropped from the cabinet.

Existing council of ministers

In the Modi government, there are 26 Cabinet ministers, 12 ministers of state (independent charge) and 25 ministers of state. (In total, 63 members in PM Modi's council of ministers.)

Cap on maximum number of ministers

The 91st Amendment to the Constitution curbed the PM’s discretion to appoint any number of ministers. As per Article 72 of the Constitution, the total number of ministers, including the prime minister, in the council of ministers shall not exceed 15 per cent of the number of members of the House of the People.

Prior to January 1, 2004 (effective date of 91st Amendment of the Constitution) the PM had discretion to appoint any number in his council of ministers. But this constitutional amendment effected a drastic change in curbing that erstwhile power of the PM.

What was the maximum number during Manmohan Singh's government?

The UPA-I and UPA-II led by Manmohan Singh began with over 50 ministers, and reached its maximum strength at 78 on October 22, 2012, in a cabinet reshuffle during UPA II.

Statewise representation in Team Modi

Uttar Pradesh - 13: PM Modi, Rajnath Singh, Manohar Parrikar (Rajya Sabha member from UP), Uma Bharati, Kalraj Mishra, Maneka Gandhi, Gen VK Singh, Santosh Kumar Gangwar, Mahesh Sharma, Manoj Sinha, Sanjeev Kumar Balyan, Ram Shankar Katheria and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti.

Bihar - 8: Ramvilas Paswan, Ravi Shankar Prasad (RS MP), Radha Mohan Singh, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Dharmendra Pradhan(RS MP), Ram Kripal Yadav, Giriraj Singh and Upendra Kushwaha.

Madhya Pradesh - 5: Sushma Swaraj, Najma Heptulla(RS MP), Narendra Singh Tomar, Thaawar Chand Gehlot(RS MP), Prakash Javadekar (RS MP).

Gujarat - 5: Arun Jaitley (RS MP),Smriti Irani (RS MP), Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary, Mohanbhai Kalyanjibhai Kundariya and Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava.

Karnataka - 5: M Venkaiah Naidu (RS MP), DV Sadananda Gowda, Ananth Kumar, Nirmala Sitharaman (RS Member) and GM Siddeshwara.

Maharashtra - 4: Nitin Gadkari, Anant Geete, Piyush Goyal(RS Member), Hansraj Gangaram Ahir,

Andhra Pradesh - 3: Suresh Parbhu (RS MP), Pusapati Ashok Gajapati Raju, YS. Chowdary (RS Member),

Rajasthan - 3: Sanwar Lal Jat, Nihalchand and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore.

Jharkhand - 3: Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi (RS MP), Sudarshan Bhagat and Jayant Sinha.

Haryana - 3: Chaudhary Birender Singh (RS MP) and Rao Indrajeet Singh and Krishan Pal Gujjar.

Punjab - 2: Harsimrat Kaur Badal and Vijay Sampla

Odisha - 1: Jual Oram

Delhi - 1: Harsh Vardhan

Telangana - 1: Bandaru Dattatreya

Goa - 1: Shripad Yesso Naik

J&K - 1: Jitendra Singh

Tamil Nadu - 1: Pon Radhakrishnan

Arunachal Pradesh - 1: Kiren Rijiju

Chhattisgarh - 1: Vishnudeo Sai

West Bengal - 1: Babul Supriyo

Himachal Pradesh - 1: JP Nadda (RS Member)

Last reshuffle

November 9, 2014

The most significant changes in reshuffle were the shifting of DV Sadananda Gowda from the high-profile Railways to Law and Justice — his job was given to BJP’s latest import and PM’s trusted Suresh Prabhu — and induction of former Goa chief minister Manohar Parrikar as defence minister.

Health minister Harsh Vardhan was shifted to the low profile science and technology, earth sciences. His place in the health ministry was allocated to JP Nadda.

Finance and corporate affairs minister Arun Jaitley, who handed over the defence ministry to former Goa CM Manohar Parrikar, maintains his pre-eminent position in the government, taking on information and broadcasting from Prakash Javadekar.

Road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari has been relieved of rural development which, now, is neing handled by Chaudhary Birender Singh. Information technology minister Ravi Shankar Prasad was relieved of law and justice.

(With inputs from Jagat Narayan Singh.)