What will Trump's China policy look like and how it affects India
Those who believe that Donald Trump has had to eat crow in accepting the One China policy of his predecessors may be celebrating a tad too early. Given the limited information we have, and the predictable unpredictability of the new US president, there is need for caution.
Even so, it is a fact, as the White House readout of the Xi-Trump telephone conversation reveals Trump agreed “at the request” of Xi to “honour our ‘one China’ policy”.
Negotiations
There was a context to the view that Trump was indeed ready to make a momentous change in American policy since 1979, which had recognised a single Chinese government in Beijing and ended formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
The first was his unprecedented acceptance of a phone call by Taiwanese president Tsai Ying-wen on December 2. Its significance was that it was the first time that a US President, or President-elect, had spoken to a Taiwanese president since 1979. The second was his insistence in an interview with Fox News the following Sunday that the US did not have “to be bound by a 'one China’ policy”.
 |
| Those who believe that Donald Trump has had to eat crow in accepting the One China policy of his predecessors may be celebrating a tad too early. |
What is important, in the context of his retraction, are the words that followed: “unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things.” But note, both were when he was President-elect, not President and in his confirmation testimony, the US Secretary of State designate Rex Tillerson had said that he would uphold the One China policy.
As of now people are focused on the bit of coversation that deals with the new administration’s reiteration of its support for the “One China” policy. But the same White House readout of the Trump-Xi conversation goes on to say, “representatives of the United States and China will engage in discussions and negotiations on various issues of mutual interest.”
As of now, we do not know whether China and the US have already begun quiet discussions on matters that Trump has insistently articulated — trade, market access and economic policy or negotiations on political matters such as North Korea, Iran or the South China Sea.
Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law has business interests in China and knows the Chinese ambassador in the US, Cui Tiankai.
Moderation
The Trump team may have decided that the US simply lacks the heft to challenge the One China policy and pushing it would be a lose-lose situation. On the other hand by abandoning it in good time, they may be able to make gains in the other areas.
The most obvious is on issues relating to trade and market access which will help him deliver what he promised. Neither this, nor any comprimises in the political agenda will be an easy fight, and the US will require not just negotiating skills, but the temperament to pursue it.
We may now see a similar moderating process at work in Trump’s quarrel with Mexico or its florid support for Israel.
Trump has to understand that while making a deal is one thing, putting everything on the block is quite another. There are some issues on which it will be impossible to get a deal such as a wall paid for by Mexicans, an unrestricted settlements policy for the Israelis, or for that matter, an abandonment of a One China policy.
Economy
If Trump can get China to give the US geater market access and open its economy, there could be a shift in the South China Sea situation. As it is, Beijing already controls the key islands in the Spratlys group and it may simply freeze its position there. The US has backed off from the position that it could prevent Chinese access to those islands. So a modus vivendi of sorts could be put in place there.
As it is, through the recent visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Japan and Korea and the Abe visit to Washington, the US has signaled that it will firmly back its allies in the region. Stability in East Asia will be a positive development because any turbulence there could have a negative impact of the world economy which is already tottering in the face of the Chinese slowdown and Europe’s inability to get its act going.
As for India, with its focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan, there is some worry of a possible deal between the US and Pakistan over Afghanistan. Recent steps by Islamabad, including putting Hafiz Saeed under house arrest could be an indicator of this. This would not necessarily be bad for India.
The big continuing worry for everyone is the US-Iran tension where there seems to be little space for amending the old deal to satisfy the Trump camp.
All this said, let’s be clear, what India needs most is a stable global environment where it can focus on economic growth rather than be distracted by regional tensions.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)