10 reasons Goa Assembly elections is significant

1. Return of Manohar Parrikar?

Even though Manohar Parrikar is "stationed" in Delhi as the country's defence minister, his heart resides in Goa. People close to him say he comes to Goa almost every weekend. When somebody asked him if that's true, Parrikar, with his typical curtness, said: "Is it affecting the defence ministry work in any way? "

Although the BJP has not announced any CM candidate for Goa, party insiders say if the party commands him to take up the responsibility, he won't say no to it. The BJP, too, knows it well that only Parrikar can get the party a clear mandate in the coastal state which is going to polls on February 4.

He was serving his second term as Goa chief minister when Parrikar, also known as one of PM Modi's most trusted aides, agreed to shift to Delhi as defence minister in November 2014.

A key campaigner for the BJP in Goa, where the party is contesting against the Congress, an alliance of regional outfits, including one headed by a former RSS leader, and the AAP, Parrikar, unlike Nitin Gadakari (who openly says that he is happy in Delhi) is not very open to the idea of getting "settled" in Delhi. When a local journalist asked him how is he liking Delhi, the Union minister's answer was: "I still enjoy fish curry more than butter chicken."

2. BJP's pitch for majority

For the first time, the BJP is contesting 36 seats out of 40 in Goa and pushing for a clear mandate. As far as the remaining four seats are concerned, the party is supporting independent candidates. Rumours are rife that the BJP is talking in whispers about Parrikar as the next CM face without formally announcing it for a reason — it wants a stable government with clear mandate. It doesn't want to get into an alliance with any other party like in Maharshtra, where the party has to put up with a nagging partner in the government.

Goa hasn't seen a stable single party government for the past many years. In order to achieve that, the BJP is pulling out all stops — right from PM Modi to senior ministers like Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Smriti Irani, Rajyavardhan Rathore and party president Amit Shah making a beeline to Goa.

3. Everyone's 'afraid' of 'Super CM' Parrikar 

Facing a multi-cornered contest in Goa, the BJP has been indicating that Parrikar might be allowed to return to the state, if the need arises. The opposition parties too have already started attacking Parrikar in their campaign speeches. While the Congress has been stressing on the BJP's double speak on casinos and the return of mining in the state, it has also been talking a lot about the interference of "super CM" Parrikar.

The MGP-Shiv Sena-GSM alliance, on the other hand, has been calling Parrikar a backstabber and someone who has destroyed the Goan culture.

The BJP's one-time ally Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) is fighting the elections in alliance with the Shiv Sena and Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM). The GSM is led by Subhash Velingkar, the former Goa head of the RSS.

4. Does Congress still stand a chance?

The Congress, which suffered a crushing defeat in the state in 2012, is still reeling under infighting and election losses in absence of a unified command. But despite that it has not been decimated completely and still enjoys some popularity. The party is banking heavily on the 27 per cent Christian votes. As many as four former chief ministers have jumped into the fray and contesting on Congress tickets.

Even though none of them see eye to eye, Congress general secretary and veteran leader Digvijaya Singh is trying his best to "bring them together" and campaign against the BJP that the former has termed as "U-Turn wali sarkar". But the Congress campaign in Goa is still not cohesive, unlike the BJP that has its party stalwarts visiting the state regularly for some time now.

Interestingly, there is an election "barometer" for Congress in Goa — Salcete, which comprises eight seats dominated by the Christian voters. There was time when the Congress tally used to begin with eight as it used to sweep all seats from this region. But in 2012, the party could manage only two seats from here after the BJP stormed Salcete with its anti-corruption campaign.

This time around, the Congress is betting high on its Catholic vote base again to wrest Salcete back.

5. How influential will be the church?

With 27 per cent Christian votes, every party, including the BJP is banking on them. The main contenders for this pie are the Congress and the AAP. But the BJP has fielded so many Christian candidates for the first time.

While the AAP is desperately trying to cut into the Congress's Christian vote base, the role of church will be important, as always. It is not just a spiritual institution, but also a social foundation. The Goa Church's wing, Council for Social Justice and Peace, has been closely watching all developments in state and their possible impact on Catholics. It has also issued some guidelines for the elections, insisting that citizens cannot afford a casual approach towards their moral duty (of voting).

Apparently, it reminds somewhat of the RSS' "shat partishat matdan"  (100 per cent voting ) campaign, as the Goa Church wing, sources say, has subtly hinted whom the community should vote for.

In this regard, the Church's word is final. Recently the Church, expressing its concern and referring to Goa polls, said: "With over Rs 10,000 crore public debt on the heads of Goan citizens and a threat to the natural resources from unregulated and indiscriminate development, the outcome of this state election 2017 will determine and impact the future, not only of the existing citizens, but of the generations yet to be born."

6. Emergence of AAP in Goan politics

The AAP is the only party which is fielding candidates in all 40 seats and has also declared its chief ministerial candidate. The party, with the help  of volunteers from neighbouring states and its star campaigner, Kumar Vishwas, has managed to build a fairly vibrant campaign. But it remains to be seen whether the party has managed to capture the local people's hearts.

Goa being a small state (with each constituency having not more than 30,000 voters), candidates mostly depend on their personal rapport with families.

The party has some new and lesser-known faces in the fray and questions are being raised whether it will be able garner enough votes.

Interestingly, support for the AAP is more visible on social media. But one thing is clear, Goa is a state which AAP can nurture for future success.

7. Scope for regional forces

Two former allies of the BJP have come together with RSS rebels to teach the saffron party a lesson. MGP and Shiv Sena, two former regional allies of the BJP, are now more anti-BJP than the Congress. They call BJP a "betrayer of trust".

Although the Shiv Sena is almost an "alien" to Goa, the MGP is considered an old warhorse and the Goan version of Shiv Sena.

The once-powerful MGP lost its ground to BJP after the emergence of Parrikar in state politics despite sharing seats in the government with the BJP since 2012 .

It is beleived to be the MGP leadership's last attempt to revive its fortunes in Goa.

With the support of a dedicated but shrinking voter base, the MGP is mostly betting on North Goa.

But there is a problem. The MGP voter base mostly comprises old people and are not more than 11 per cent. With that much vote share, the MGP has very little to look forward to. However, with the help of Shiv Sena and Goa Surkasha Manch, it's hoping to revive its lost glory.

8. The RSS rebel will show the way

This may be the first time that RSS cadres revolted en masse against the BJP in any state and formed a political front to defeat the saffron party. The BJP or earlier Jan Sangh was non-existent in Goa until Subhash Velingker, a teacher by profession, dedicatedly started RSS shakhas in the state and created a space for the "parivar".

But when "ditched" by Parrikar (by not keeping his promise of giving grants only to Konkani-medium schools), the strong-headed RSS leader openly revolted and declared "war". Velingker is trying his best to play the outside-influence-on-Goan-culture card.

9. Culture vs tourism

Goa is one state which attracts maximum number of foreign tourists with its casinos and beaches. These are the same things which the new opposition is terming as destroyers of Goan culture. Even the BJP had earlier joined this campaign, but while the closing down of Goa's once-flourishing mining business affected it's GDP and revenue badly, it's tourism because of which the state economy has managed to survive.

Even though the traditional Goan voters have never approved of what they call the "nude" beach culture, it has always remained an election issue which normally no government touches after getting elected.

10. What better than populism

From promising petrol to unemployment allowance in a state which is already under heavy debt, the BJP, AAP and the Congress are trying to outsmart each other to lure voters with populist schemes.

The BJP is projecting its pet schemes such as the Griha Aadhar Scheme for housewives (which will be increased to Rs 1,500 per month from Rs 1,200), it has also promised retirement pension of Rs 2,500 for senior citizens. For women, the current  government has Ladli Laxmi Yojna according to which a woman is entitled to Rs 1 lakh during her marriage. The age limit for ladli laxmis has been increased by 5 years (it's 45 years now).

Youths between the age of 18 and 35 have been promised a free package of 1 GB data and Rs 100 worth of talk time on their cell phones every month.

The BJP has also put a cap of Rs 60 on petrol price in Goa, the only state where petrol is cheaper than diesel. 

Other parties too have promised similar schemes. The Aam Admi Party is distributing a card signed by Elvis Gomes, CM candidate, to avail benefits after election. While the AAP has promised to double the existing allowance under social schemes, the Congress has promised five litres of free petrol to youths and Rs 5,000 as unemployment allowance.

With all these and more tamasha lined up, the contest definitely promises to be entertaining!

Also read: What to expect from Goa polls