Gulf crisis: Isolating Qatar is Saudi Arabia ensuring total control on the Middle East
Freshly re-emboldened after US President Donald Trump’s maiden foreign visit to Riyadh last month, Saudi Arabia has moved to ostracise its nearest rival Qatar in a game of West Asian political chess.
Saudi Arabia has, in conjunction with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt under General al-Sisi, cut off all ties with Qatar, severing diplomatic relations in what seems to be a strong Shia-Sunni regional divide splitting the Gulf countries right in the middle.
Essentially, Riyadh has accused Doha of harbouring pro-Iran ties, pro-Iran and anti-Saudi Arabia militias such as the Hamas, as well as the oldest Muslim political organisation – the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and using its state-sponsored news channel, the influential Al Jazeera, to spread anti-Saudi propaganda.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), of which Qatar is an integral member and which is headquartered in Doha, the Qatari capital, is as of now divided into two camps, over the latest diplomatic meltdown.
In addition, the Saudi state news agency SPA has claimed that “(Qatar) embraces multiple terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at disturbing stability in the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS (Islamic State) and al-Qaeda, and promotes the message and schemes of these groups through their media constantly”.
Qatar has rubbished the charges as “baseless”, and has said that the Saudi-driven sanctions are part of a plan to “impose guardianship on the state, which in itself is a violation of sovereignty”.
Meanwhile, as a result of the shock severance, Qatari oil and stock prices have plummeted, while diplomats, tourists and other Qatari denizens in the four Gulf states have just 48 hours to a fortnight to leave the respective countries.
This has also brought upon a looming shadow over the fate of the FIFA World Cup 2022, which Qatar has won the bid for.
Qatar’s position in the Gulf
The Qatari Emirate is one of the richest countries in the world and of enormous strategic importance to the Middle Eastern/West Asian military/political equation. It’s the biggest producer of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, and has a tiny population, making Doha one of the richest cities in the world, and Qatar, one of the highest per capita income countries.
Its USD 335 billion sovereign wealth has mammoth stakes in major American financial corporations, while its Al Udeid airbase is the forward headquarter of Centcom, the US military’s central command in the Middle East.
The current Saudi-led rift in the Gulf and its bid to isolate Qatar is a stronger fallout of the 2014 showdown when the two countries went through a tough time, but stopped short at expelling diplomats. However, this time, Saudi Arabia is on a war footing to trade barbs at Qatar, and is leaving no stone unturned to isolate the rich emirate over its relative proximity to the Iranian government.
Saudi-Iran rivalry
Though it’s been brewing for a while, the immediate trigger for the Qatar crisis is in the alleged comments made by the Qatari ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, taking pot-shots at the Saudi-US camp, intensifying ideological and political assault on Iran and its recently re-elected moderate president, Hassan Rouhani.
Though the comments came on Al Jazeera, they were retracted and ascribed to hackers, but it was construed as “defiance” over the Iranian issue by the Saudi authorities.
It must be remembered that Qatar here is just a pawn in the legendary Saudi-Iran rivalry, which is along the Shia-Sunni axis that has split not just the Middle East/West Asian region but in fact the whole of Muslim world.
Qatar has famously followed a relatively independent foreign policy, refusing to squash ties with Tehran despite Riyadh’s irritation, and in fact, through Al Jazeera, given a platform for pro-democracy dissidents within the Arab states.
Qatari media’s role in the 2011 Arab Spring was a pivotal one, supporting the anti-regime movements and bankrolling the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which led to the fall of three-decade-old dictator Hosni Mubarak and saw democracy restored in the country after 34 years.
But the coup in July 2013 saw the fall of the one-year-old Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and the takeover by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Since then Saudi Arabia-led chiefly Sunni monarchies and emirates have traded their guns against the smaller but magnificently rich country for its refusal to toe the Saudi line.
For example, the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which is also propped up by Saudi Arabia, has accused Qatar of funding and arming the Houthi rebels, as a favour to Iran. Similarly in Syria, Qatar and Iran share interests and back Bashar al-Assad, in addition to Russia, and now Turkey backing the president, while Saudi Arabia wants Assad out, along with the United States and NATO countries.
The GCC members – UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, in addition to Saudi Arabia, of course, and the new joinee Yemen – have been seeking to contain the Iranian influence in Middle Eastern affairs, even though it’s headquartered in the Qatari capital of Doha. Qatar, on the other hand, has of late softened towards the Persian influence to counter Saudi Arabia’s relentless autocratic hold on the region and restore a balance of power.
Role of Trump-led US
In his first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia, US President Donald Trump vowed to bring Iran to its heels, while he signed a mammoth 110-billion-dollar arms deal with Riyadh, which would be the first instalment of a 10-year-long 350-billion-dollar strategic partnership between the two countries.
In fact, Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State, in a joint conference with his Saudi counterpart, traded guns at Iran, and accused it of harbouring terrorists and spawning unrest in Syria and other parts of the Middle East and North African region.
However, Secretary Tillerson has, in the wake of Saudi-Qatar fallout, appealed for calm and peace and has expressed his desire to see the relations restored. Moreover, the Trump administration has warm ties with Qatar, with US Secretary of Defence James Mattis visiting Doha on a regional tour to “reinforce” the US-Qatar ties.
Furthermore, the Pentagon chief waxed eloquent on Doha’s contribution to Washington’s counter-terrorism efforts and regional stability.
It must be remembered the current Trump administration in the White House in much in line the Vladimir Putin-led Russia, and keeps Kremlin’s sympathies and ideological preferences in mind while making overtures. Though split on Syria after the surprise air strike earlier this year, Moscow and Washington haven’t been “closer” in ages since before the onset of the Cold War.
This means that the United States doesn’t have a coherent Middle Eastern policy under Donald Trump, as it’s gerrymandering to respective powers in Saudi Arabia in one hand, which wants to expand its imperial dominion in the whole of Middle East, and on the other, also taking notes from Russia, defending Moscow’s peculiar role in setting terms in the White House.
Will this backfire?
The Saudi-led isolation of Qatar might backfire as Russia, Iran and Turkey – a crucial NATO member – could move to call out the Gulf countries on their misguided attempt to ostracise Doha and precipitate further regional instability.
Losing Qatar to the axis of Russia, Iran and Turkey would split the Gulf Cooperation Council and destabilise its tight-knit structure that maintains the ubiquity of the petro-dollar emirates on the region. However, on the other hand, it would invite trouble in these monarchies and emirates as dissidents would look to Qatar and its backers in Iran, Russia, among other interested parties, for military and political funding.
Interestingly, Qatar is famously soft towards the pro-Palestine Hamas group, which have Iranian backing, and this means trouble for Israel as well.
All in all, Arab autocracies can expect some serious political challenge in the years ahead, if Qatar’s isolation is not withdrawn. Given the amount of ammunition these countries are sitting on and the repository of oil and gas that they happen to be, an oil and gas shock is certain to send ripples across the world.
What about India?
India sends millions of expatriates to work in the Gulf, and Doha houses a chunk of Indians who send home petro-dollars as remittances, to the tune of 63 billion USD per year. India has ties with all the countries of the GCC, and the forced ouster of Qatar would imply that Saudi Arabia would expect that New Delhi too acts on the isolation and restricts its channels with Doha.
Saudi Arabia’s formal accusation that Qatar supports “regional terror” and the “Muslim Brotherhood” means India would be coerced into reconsidering its relations with not only Doha, but also Tehran, an extremely crucial ally in the Persian Gulf.
India has always stayed out of the Shiá-Sunni, Arab/Persian, or Wahabi-Salafi divides, and remained equidistant from all, letting economic ties decide its mercantile compulsions.
In 2016, PM Narendra Modi made a trip to the major Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. India’s overtures in central and western Asian regions have been quite non-controversial and have been mostly to satisfy India’s burgeoning energy needs.
But the Saudi-led drive to isolate Qatar and its ouster from the GCC could spell trouble as India would be forced to pick sides, or walk an extreme diplomatic tightrope.