How #RahulOnLeave can set the #CongressOnLeave
In normal times, Rahul Gandhi's decision to go on a thinking sabbatical would have been unexceptional. After all, even working politicians need a break. But these are not normal times, at least not for the Congress. It is still to recover from the severe drubbing it got in the May 2014 General Elections and then in the Delhi state elections where it scored a grand zero. Moreover, the leave came on the eve of the Budget session of the Parliament, where the Modi government is going to face a lot of opposition; young Gandhi should have been out there, attacking the government.
Besides, it is not as if Rahul Gandhi has notched up a lot of credits to his name that he can legitimately ask for leave of absence; he still has to fully prove himself as a leader of substance, one who can effectively steer his party towards a semblance of its former self.
By walking away at this juncture, he has in fact caused harm to his organisation.
This was a particularly good moment for the Congress to be seen out there, taking up the cause of agitated farmers who are in distress and are now seriously worried that they will be deprived of their land. The old Land Acquisition Bill, which the Modi government wants to discard and replace with its own version, was a creation of the Congress (and, it is to be noted, was supported by all parties). It was weighed in favour of the farmer and, if the industrialists were to be believed, loaded against anyone trying to acquire land to build a factory. Today, that balance has been overturned and this has angered not just the opposition parties but the BJP's own sister organisations such as the Bharatiya Kisan Union which has raised several objections.
Anna Hazare, after a prolonged period of inaction, has suddenly sprung up and decided to lead an agitation against the bill and has been joined by Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party. The government is already showing signs of softening.
The net result of this is that the Opposition space has been cornered by the likes of Hazare and the AAP, leaving the Congress out in the cold. This hurts the Congress in several ways, not the least of which is to further make it irrelevant in policy issues. If it is not going to be seen on the streets when it matters, then of what use is it? An opportunity to accumulate valuable political capital has been lost.
Rahul Gandhi is at a severe disadvantage. He may be a dynast, but for the first time in the history of the Congress, two members of the Gandhi family are operating in the party simultaneously. Sonia Gandhi is still the boss and calls the shots, but Rahul is seen as the putative heir, carrying the family name but not the ultimate authority yet. This inevitably creates two power centres and thus two camps. Partymen remain unsure who really calls the shots and whether they should invest in Gandhi junior, who may have some powers but is far from being the chief. They find him reluctant to lead and unable or unwilling to put his stamp on the organisation. He may have the ideas - those who have known him closely testify to that - but he does not have what it takes in today's political climate - the ability to articulate them succinctly, with a bit of drama and, if necessary, bombast. He is a poor interviewee and falls short as a public speaker whether in rallies or in chambers of commerce. Nor does he give the impression of being a master of political intrigue, who can effectively control the unwieldy party from behind the scenes. At best, the overall impression is that of an intelligent do-gooder caught in a role that he does not want to play. That, in the politics of today, which is as much about public performance as genuine vision, does not wash.
Even if one assumes that his desire to indulge in serious contemplation about his own role and about the party's future is genuine, it will be of no use if he eventually comes back with no original idea about how to revive the organisation which looks like heading towards inevitable doom. It cannot be more of the same, otherwise it will be like one of those periodic restructuring exercises companies undertake to save themselves from eventual bankruptcy. It's problem is not just winning or losing elections - it is suffering from an existential crisis, unable to carve out an identity for itself in emerging India. Various parties are taking huge bites out of its traditional support base. The BJP is happily taking credit for many of the UPA's initiatives. It has to reinvent itself. There is no time for a Plan B-the Congress now needs a new Plan A. If this involves bringing in a new face to lead the party, so be it. If these few weeks of deep thought can produce a genuine blueprint to revive the Congress and prepare it for the challenges ahead, he would have earned his break. If not, it will be one more vacation.